North County economic summit focuses on growth, change

By: EDMOND JACOBY - Staff Writer | Wednesday, January 19, 2005 8:48 PM PST ∞

ESCONDIDO ---- Change is in the wind for the economy of North County, attendees at the San Diego North Economic Summit heard Wednesday. In fact, it's already taking place, speakers said.

But even though the change is generally for the better, there remains ample opportunity to turn that trend around.

Growth in the San Diego region as a whole lags behind neighboring counties, but according to Marney Cox, chief economist for the San Diego Association of Governments, North County's growth is the strongest in the county. In fact, he told the audience, job growth in North County not only outstrips that in the other parts of the county, it outstrips its own population growth.

Part of the reason for that is a decline in domestic migration to San Diego, he said.

But a closer look at expected demographics suggests that the region must examine its development policies, Cox said.

"Two of the fastest-growing components of population are the age ranges 65 to 84 and 85-plus," he said. "This raises some very important questions about the transportation system and transportation planning. Today, 11 percent of the population is over 65; by 2030, that will be 19 percent."

That shift toward an older population profile will introduce a completely new set of needs to be met by the transportation system.

"There are three characteristics of smart growth," Cox said.

"Smart growth emphasizes compact, efficient and environmentally sensitive development; it focuses future growth away from rural areas, and it connects housing with jobs, services and transportation," he said.

Changing the way land is used ---- wrapping shopping and housing and workplace development together instead of isolating shopping centers and office buildings away from housing areas ---- could save as much as 400,000 acres of open space, the equivalent of 15 cities the size of Oceanside, Cox said.

Coupling changes in land-use policies with commitment to a handful of economic growth policies could improve the region's standard of living. Since 1980, California's standard of living growth, and San Diego's along with it, have lagged behind the nation's by nearly 12 percent, he said.

Fewer than half of the "70 or so" business owners and executives who signed up for the summit actually attended, according to Gary Knight, president and chief executive officer of San Diego North Economic Development Council.

Other speakers at the summit included Peter MacLaggan, senior vice president of Poseidon Resources, and Dennis Guseman, dean of the College of Business at Cal State San Marcos.

In addition, Cami Mattson, president and CEO of the San Diego North Convention and Visitors Bureau; Al Staley, a local avocado grower and former president of the county Farm Bureau; David Blackledge, vice president for operations of RL Phillips Inc.; and Kevin Carroll, president and CEO of AeA, made up a discussion panel.

Contact staff writer Edmond Jacoby at (760) 739-6675 or ejacoby@nctimes.com.