Best Picture, Best Director categories up in the air

By: Dan Bennett - Staff Writer | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 12:30 PM PST ∞

The 77th Annual Academy Awards will be televised live from the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles at 5 p.m. Sunday on ABC. The host for this year's event is comedian Chris Rock, and North County Times staff film critic Dan Bennett makes his best guesses at who will take home those coveted golden statuettes.

Best Picture

Pick this category correct in your office pool and you should win a million dollars, baby.

Such action would be illegal, of course, but so is dumping a bucket of wine and spit over your head in a public restaurant (I'm not certain of the statute number), yet that action by a character in "Sideways" helped the little sleeper film to an abundance of Oscar nominations and critics' awards. So there.

The point is, apparently, that this year's Best Picture noms present four potential winners. To get it out of the way quickly, "Finding Neverland" has already found neverland. It won't win and it shouldn't. There were dozens of films more deserving of a nomination during 2003.

So does that allow the Howard Hughes biopic "The Aviator" to wing its way to the podium, following in the footsteps of its director (see below)? Does "Million Dollar Baby" earn the TKO, a prize for Clint Eastwood since Martin Scorsese will win best director?

Or do voters believe Eastwood has at least another five good films in him, so quick and efficient is his sturdy work, and another of his films can be honored later? If so, does that give the moving and entertaining "Ray" an inside track?

Shall we not exclude from consideration "Sideways," the clever, funny, nearly perfect little gamer that has single-handedly put Merlot makers on the defensive? If you haven't heard, folks are walking into wineries worldwide and bellowing actor Paul Giamatti's comic threats concerning Merlot. It's become its own peculiar sort of adventure travel.

Well, I certainly hope you have the answers to these questions, because I have only guesses. "The Aviator," "Million Dollar Baby" and "Ray" would all serve as honorable choices ---- "The Aviator" is the best film of the three. Oscar usually goes for big, when sometimes the smallest, sweetest, subtlest choice would in fact be the most honorable choice. In this case, the smallest of the films is, perhaps not coincidentally, the best and most deserving of the nominees.

Deserves to win: "Sideways"

Will win: "Million Dollar Baby"

Best Director

Is this award about grand vision and hard work, or keeping it real? And what does "keeping it real" mean, and why do people say it so often these days? Scorsese's vision and work ethic on "The Aviator" are extraordinary. Few directors besides this master craftsman could create such a visually splendid ode to an era, to a man and his mystery and to the essence of American ingenuity and gumption with this much class and style.

Alexander Payne's work on "Sideways" is a powderkeg of subtlety, as mentioned, and hey, that works, too. Eastwood lands somewhere in the middle here, as his surrogate father-daughter story takes a wide turn in the third act, becoming more self-conscious as its storyline broadens. Taylor Hackford's solid musical-drama "Ray" is also a sight-and-sound treat.

Yet here we are again, discussing what Oscar should do, rather than what it's expected to do. "Vera Drake" was the best film I saw last year, a nod ahead of "Sideways." I don't recall the last time I was as emotionally involved in a film, and as separated from the world around me as I was while taking in this story. Mike Leigh's film, taking place in post-World War II England, is solidly engrossing, brilliant in its manner of slow, nearly excruciating revelation of circumstances to its own characters. Little seen, this film roared silently, and it was Leigh's screenplay and direction that allowed it to do so. "Finding Neverland" gets the best pic nomination and not "Vera Drake"? Harrumph and all that.

Deserves to win: Mike Leigh

Will win: Martin Scorsese

Best Actress

This category is sometimes bold, evidenced this year by the deserved nomination of Catalina Sandino Moreno in "Maria Full of Grace." She won't get the votes to move her past the other talent, but her performance as a victim of both choice and circumstance was golden. You can almost predict Hilary Swank and Kate Winslet battling in this category every other year for the next two decades or so, their work is so to-the-heart, and in Winslet's case this year, wildly invigorating and surprising.

Swank has the edge between the two, and a few pre-Oscar awards to fuel things. In these other awards, she has bested Imelda Staunton, whose delicate, flawless performance as the kindly old lady with the enormous secret in "Vera Drake" is simply amazing. Staunton accomplishes small miracles in the film, often without saying a word.

Still, it comes down to Swank and Annette Bening, and Bening has fans who admire her greatly. Her performance in the so-so "Being Julia" was a victory cry for middle-age ---- varied, saucy, sentimental and in the end about ---- keeping it real. Will San Diego's own Annette Bening upset Swank? That's what it says here.

Deserves to win: Imelda Staunton

Will win: Annette Bening

Best Actor

Some critics have said Leonardo DiCaprio is a boy playing a man's role in "The Aviator," but if you check his driver's license, you will likely find that DiCaprio is legally old enough to play Howard Hughes at some point in his adult life. Johnny Depp's performance in "Finding Neverland" was the secret cure for insomnia for me, though his talent in numerous other films is evident.

Don Cheadle is the voice of conscience in the harrowing "Hotel Rwanda," and Cheadle is among the most valuable character actors in movies. It probably comes down to Eastwood, who plays things simply, honestly and effectively in "Million Dollar Baby," and Jamie Foxx, whose versatility is increasingly apparent. In "Ray," Foxx proved extremely competent as actor and on-screen musician, managing to capture both the demons and the unstoppable joy of Ray Charles, in a fine, moving and astute performance.

Deserves to win: Jamie Foxx

Will win: Jamie Foxx

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Linney is liked but doesn't have the momentum in "Kinsey," and the same lack of momentum lessens chances for Sophie Okonedo's multileveled, honorable performance in "Hotel Rwanda." Natalie Portman joins Swank and Winslet above on the list of future perennial nominees, but here it's between Cate Blanchett's whipsmart turn as Kate Hepburn, and seasoned pro Virginia Madsen as the likable, mature voice of reason, giving "Sideways" its moral weight whenever another of the characters steers badly. Madsen has been around for a while, and voters will want to reward her for sticking it out, becoming a reliable, intriguing and luminous midcareer artist.

Deserves to win: Cate Blanchett

Will win: Virginia Madsen

Best Supporting Actor

If a character such as that played by Thomas Haden Church ever seeks to become your best friend, walk away quickly. But people are enjoying Church's turn as the ultra-wayward groom-to-be, and certainly his is the most amusing of the nominated performances.

Alan Alda has the old pro's insider track as the conniving politician in "The Aviator," but probably just barely so over Morgan Freeman, whose easygoing work in "Million Dollar Baby" is again rich with the fine touches Freeman employs so easily. Clive Owen's desperate character in "Closer" gave the jumbled, self-absorbed film more energy.

Facts are facts, though, and fact is Jamie Foxx gave the best performances in both the Best Actor and the Best Supporting Actor categories. His nervous, detailed, innovative performance as the taxi driver under the gun ---- literally ---- in "Collateral" allowed him to steal the film from star Tom Cruise, and elevate the film itself from good to very good.

Deserves to win: Jamie Foxx

Will win: Morgan Freeman

And while we're at it:

Best Original Screenplay

Deserves to win: "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"

Will win: "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"

Best Adapted Screenplay

Deserves to win: "Sideways"

Will win: "Sideways"

Best Animated Feature

Deserves to win: "Shrek 2"

Will win: "The Incredibles"