Political consultants say some local Republicans already eyeing Cunningham's seat

By: WILLIAM FINN BENNETT - Staff Writer | Saturday, July 2, 2005 10:10 PM PDT ∞

A federal grand jury investigation. Accusations of ethics violations. Unending news coverage of his travails. Every day that passes seems to bring more blows to Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, R-Escondido. Blows that over the last two weeks have been met with little more than silence and prepared statements from the former Top Gun pilot.

And with every new revelation of the eight-term congressman's ties to a Washington defense contractor ---- a real estate deal with the president of that company, his use of a yacht belonging to the same man, his questionable use of the congressional seal on memorabilia ---- Cunningham's political future becomes riddled with question marks.

As his woes mount, some local Republicans with aspirations to national office are turning an eye to Cunningham's 50th District seat, two local Republican political consultants said last week.

A third Republican political consultant, however, says that he hasn't talked to anyone who has given up on Cunningham and that Republicans believe he will vindicate himself.

"Republicans are holding out hope at this point and not willing to throw him to the wolves," said TJ Zane, a consultant with San Diego-based PAC Management and Consulting.

But for Oceanside-based consultant Jack Orr, Cunningham is toast ---- toast that is growing darker by the minute.

"Despite my high regard for the congressman, there will be a new Republican face in (his seat) in 2007, or there will be a Democrat if he decides to stay in the race," Orr said.

Highlighting Cunningham's political vulnerability were poll results released Thursday that showed that 79 percent of Republicans interviewed in his district believe that Cunningham did something unethical or illegal.

Orr added that he sees three possible scenarios playing themselves out between now and the November 2006 general election.

"One, he can retire by stating that he will not be a candidate; two, he can stay in the race and probably suffer a loss in the primary; and three, (if he wins the primary), he most certainly would be defeated by even a political pygmy of a Democrat," Orr said.

San Diego-based Republican political consultant Tom Shepard said last week that he has heard about a number of individuals, including elected officials, who are looking at running for Cunningham's seat.

"Some of them are doing so based on the possibility that Mr. Cunningham may choose not to run; and others are at least considering a challenge against him even if he does seek re-election," Shepard said. "There are a number of credible candidates I have spoken to in the second category."

Shepard said, however, that before making a move, most of the Republicans he has talked to are waiting to see the outcome of the current federal investigation of Cunningham's ties to MZM.

"What I have found is that what seems like a certainty today may have changed completely in six months, so it's difficult to speculate about where things will be in June of 2006," Shepard said.

Publicly, at least three of the people who insiders say would be viable Republican candidates for Cunningham's seat said last week they are not in the market for his seat, yet.

"Not at this time," said county Supervisor Bill Horn, a Republican who Orr identified as a possible candidate. "(Now), I am more interested in my re-election (to the Board of Supervisors)."

Horn said that in fairness to Cunningham ---- "I think he is owed that" ---- he is waiting to see what the outcome will be of the ongoing federal investigation into Cunningham's ties to the Washington Defense contractor MZM.

State Sen. Bill Morrow, another Republican who Orr said would make a viable candidate, will be terming out of his Senate seat in 2006, and while "anyone who knows Bill Morrow knows he wants to be in Congress, there is no race; as far as I know, Randy 'Duke' Cunningham is going to run for re-election."

Like Morrow, former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian has long had his eye on a job as a congressman, he said. He admitted that he has "gotten quite a number of phone calls," from people encouraging him to run for Cunningham's seat, should it open up.

"If there is a race, I would certainly be in it," Kaloogian said last week.

Like Morrow and Horn, he said it remains to be seen what will happen with Cunningham and until then, "I don't want to speculate."

An expert on congressional politics said last week that he is not surprised that some Republicans are looking to defeat Cunningham in the March primary.

"If Cunningham looks in the sky, he is going to see vultures," said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont-McKenna College and former deputy director of research for the Republican National Committee. "Unless he can put this controversy behind him real quickly, he is going to face a strong primary challenge."

Pitney said there is only one hope for Cunningham to salvage his political career.

"He should talk to his lawyer and just tell the truth," Pitney said. "Cleverness normally doesn't get you out of a scandal, but the truth does."

Cunningham's office did not return phone calls for this story Friday.

On Wednesday, KGTV Channel 10 and Survey USA conducted a poll of 700 residents living in Cunningham's 50th Congressional District, which stretches from Carlsbad and Escondido in the north, southward into portions of San Diego.

When it comes to the results of that poll, which showed that 50 percent of Republican respondents who are following the Cunningham story believe he did something unethical and 29 percent believe he broke the law, Cunningham staff member Mark Olson had this to stay in a written statement:

"The only poll Duke has ever been concerned about in his 15 years in office is when the voters go to the polls on Election Day."

Contact staff writer William Finn Bennett at (760) 740-5426 or wbennett@nctimes.com.