The day after: Democrats rejoice, Republicans regroup

By: WILLIAM FINN BENNETT - Staff Writer | Thursday, November 10, 2005 6:11 AM PST ∞

The day after the defeat of all eight propositions, including the four endorsed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, area Republicans vented their frustration with the election's outcome while vowing to continue the fight for reform in California.

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State Sen. Bill Morrow, R-Oceanside, said the defeat of those initiatives was a blow to Republicans and the governor.

"It's a setback and life is going to be tough for both the governor and people like me in Sacramento next year," Morrow said. "But that doesn't mean that we fold up our tents and quit ---- we are going to keep on trying."

Democrats, meanwhile, were riding high on the wave of victory.

"The people of California spoke very loudly and clearly against the governor's attempt to grab power," said Matt O'Connor, communication director for the North County Unity Coalition, a so-called grass-roots, predominantly Democratic activist group.

Locals buck two, support two
The explanation for the source of Republicans' frustration may lie in the fact that voters of Riverside and San Diego counties voted in vain for two of the governor's four propositions.

The two they supported but that lost were: Proposition 74, which would have extended the amount of time that public school teachers spend on probation from two years to five; and Proposition 75, that would have required public employee unions to get the written approval of every union member before using his or her dues for political purposes.

The tenure initiative was defeated at the state level by 55.1 percent to 44.9 percent, but approved by San Diego County voters by 11 points, and by Riverside County voters by 4 points. The union dues initiative, meanwhile, was defeated at the state level by 7 points, but approved by San Diego County voters by more than 15 points, and by Riverside County voters by more than 7 points.

Proposition 76 was defeated at the state level by more than 24 points and by San Diego County voters by about 4 points, while Riverside County voters defeated the spending cap initiative by nearly 7 points. Proposition 77 was voted down statewide by a 19 points and by San Diego County voters by more than 5 points, while Riverside County voters defeated the redistricting initiative by slightly less than 5 points.

Schwarzenegger had strongly endorsed all four initiatives.

Serious money was spent
Public employee unions waged an intense battle against the governor and Props. 74 and 75, and in the process reportedly spent tens of millions of dollars in advertising to get them defeated. They also fought to defeat Props. 76 and 77.

The governor, who called the special election earlier this year, fought back with equal passion and spent recent weeks barnstorming the state to convince mostly hand-picked Republican audiences to vote for his so-called "reform agenda."

In the lead up to the election, political experts said the outcome at the polls would be as much about voter opinion on Schwarzenegger and his political leadership as it would be about the initiatives themselves.

In addition to the four initiatives supported by the governor, voters also defeated all four of the other measures on the ballot: Proposition 73, which would have required doctors to provide a minor girl's parents with 48 hours written notice before performing an abortion on their daughter; Propositions 78 and 79, two competing measures that aimed at reducing the costs of prescription drugs for low- and moderate-income Californians; and Proposition 80, which would have given the state's Public Utilities Commission more control over electricity providers.

More than money involved
UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser said in a telephone interview with the North County Times that he believed the governor's initiatives were beaten because voters were not happy about having a special election, the amount of money spent by both sides, "and with the governor."

Kousser said that, in his opinion, the overwhelming defeat will force Schwarzenegger to adopt a more moderate stance and reach out to a broader base than just conservative Republicans.

"That worked for him in 2004," said Kousser, who specializes in elections and is a registered Democrat. "In 2006, I think he is going to move more toward the middle and his popularity will rebound."

He added that one of the lessons from the failure of all eight initiatives is that, without a strong idea that resonates with voters, propositions are destined for defeat no matter how much money is spent on advertising.

"If an initiative is not overwhelmingly popular at the start of a campaign, it is likely to fail," he said.

Reasons behind defeat
According to the California Voter Foundation, a nonprofit statewide organization that tracks election trends, proponents and opponents of the initiatives spent more than $200 million trying to convince voters to approve or reject the propositions. Much of that money was spent on dozens of one-sided advertisements that bombarded TV viewers in the last several weeks.

Jack Pitney, a registered Republican and Claremont-McKenna College political science professor, said Wednesday that he attributed the defeat of the governor's initiatives to three factors:

a flawed public-employee pension-reform initiative that the governor had floated earlier in the year that never took off, because of "an intense reaction from public employee unions ---- (a reaction) that lasted long after the proposed initiative had disappeared."

voter fatigue after three consecutive years of elections.

campaigns waged by opponents against all four initiatives, "that were effective and well funded."

Riverside County Republican Party Chairman Kevin Jeffries said he thought Republicans had spread themselves too thin by trying to convince voters of too many issues at the same time.

"There is something to be said for picking your battles carefully," Jeffries said. "We could have focused on just one or two key issues, instead of so many."

The breakdown
San Diego and Riverside counties are predominantly Republican. In San Diego County, there are 550,740 registered Republicans to 474,325 registered Democrats, while in Riverside County, there are 361,505 registered Republicans to 267,605 registered Democrats.

And while voters in both counties bucked the statewide trend by voting to approve the parental notification, teacher tenure and union dues initiatives, they reflected the state vote by defeating the governor's spending cap and redistricting measures.

North County Unity Coalition's O'Connor said he believed that voters in the two counties voted against the spending cap and redistricting initiatives "because a fairly large number of Republicans and Independents were willing to cross party lines and vote their conscience."

Morrow said he believed that many San Diego and Riverside county voters were fooled into voting against Prop. 77 by a deceptive flier put out by opponents to the measure. He said the flier carried a picture of the governor, and said that voters should vote yes on Props. 74, 75 and 76, but no on 77.

"So, a lot of people were misled by that," Morrow said Wednesday.

It's not over
Morrow attributed the two-county defeat of Prop. 76 to the huge amount of campaign money that public employee unions invested in the campaign against all four of the governor's initiatives.

Like Morrow, Jeffries said the battle for reform isn't over.

"It's a tough time (for Republicans), but the goal of reforming is still alive and well," Jeffries said. "We are going to have to learn from our mistakes, regroup and come back again."

At least one registered Democrat in Southwest Riverside County says he believes that the overwhelming defeat of Schwarzenegger's initiatives leaves the governor with little choice but to change his tactics with his political opponents.

"This man is faced with a Democratic Assembly that he has to try and get stuff out of now; the tables have turned and he has to reach out now," said George Alongi, a former Lake Elsinore councilman and former board member of the Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District.

Contact staff writer William Finn Bennett at (760) 740-5426, or wbennett@nctimes.com.