Y? wrote on Jan 17, 2006 7:32 AM:How many speculators are in the housing market? How long can speculators hold on to their investments before they are forced to liquidate? These are the real questions.
cathy wrote on Jan 17, 2006 9:44 AM:You neglected to mention that providing good content on these blogs takes a significant amount of time. So it makes sense that if they can get some revenue then they can afford to continue providing good content. You of all people should appreciate that.
Further, almost all of these sites (in fact I think it is all) have no control over what ads are placed on their sites. You conveniently neglected to mention that fact too.
Jason M wrote on Jan 17, 2006 10:48 AM:Your article, although very opinionated, gives no rationale why there is no "bubble". It only mocks the people concerned about a bubble without any evidence. Relying on the NAR or realtors to tell you when housing is "overvalued" seems a bit silly, doesn't it? Since their livelihood is directly related to selling houses! CONFLICT OF INTEREST!!! :)
My in-laws live in Charlotte, and we are frequently there (last time 2 weeks ago). Owning can make a lot of sense in Charlotte. It's unlikely you'll see a lot of appreciation, but HOPEFULLY the risk is also low. (no guarantee)
But it is difficult to make a good case for buying a $650,000 condo that you can rent for $1500/month. (which is the case here in San Diego).
Charlotte (luckily) does not yet have the qualities that the "bubble markets" have had, including 30-40-50% yearly appreciation, median home values above $500,000, incredible numbers of speculators. Let us hope that Charlotte ISN'T impacted if/when the bubbly markets blow up. And let us HOPE the speculator vultures that invaded Phoenix and Coeur D'alene Idaho and now Texas don't attack Charlotte.
Some of the "nice" neighborhoods have homes ranging in the $450,000-500,000 mark. Imagine if next year they were suddenly "worth" $600,000 and the next year $720,000, and the next $850,000. You'd be concerned, no? this is what we saw here on the "Left" coast. (25% appreciation for 4 years in a row)
Imagine your friends, who are landscapers and janitors living in $750,000 homes. It's happening here in California. does this sound rational?
And yet you mock us who are sad that homes are "worth" triple values they were just 6-7 years ago?
vineire wrote on Jan 17, 2006 10:51 AM:The curtain is being drawn...
grim wrote on Jan 17, 2006 10:52 AM:Last time I checked newspapers were full of ads as well. In fact, a quick glance at my local Sunday paper gives me at least a pound worth.
And what about this web site right here? All I need to do is scroll down to find the ads here.
Silver bubbles bracelet? How fitting..
jack wrote on Jan 17, 2006 11:15 AM:As San Diego house prices continue their downward plummet the house prices in Temecula and Elsinore will follow because the SW Riverside houses come with the bonus of a two hour each way commute to work. Unless you are in the construction business, in which case you will soon be unemployed.
Eric wrote on Jan 17, 2006 11:28 AM:The author has no idea what he is talking about. I've been following about 10 houses in Santa Monica. Only one hos sold - after unlisting and relisting at a 25% reduction in asking price. None of the others has sold in months, in spite of multiple reductions, from 10 to 30%. Prices are falling like stones, no one is buying, and anyone who's out there on the ground paying attention knows it.
David wrote on Jan 17, 2006 12:02 PM:My Bubble Meter Blog was mentioned.
Here is my respose:
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2006/01/north-county-times-housing-bubbles-and.html
Kirk wrote on Jan 17, 2006 1:09 PM:There is no argument against the logic of the bubble stance just the old media chant of "Bloggers aren't journalists therefore they are wrong".
From the article "a site where anybody can launch their own pages with little or no skill, risk or expertise in the position they are advocating."
Some people would see that as a boon to free speech and one of the most important developments in recent history. Old school journalists see it as a threat.
LA Renter wrote on Jan 17, 2006 1:38 PM:There seems to be one thing the Bubble Blogging community has in common, They espouse long standing economic fundamentals that have traditonally determined the price of a home. Here are the voices of Warren Buffett. Here are the true voices of fiscal responsiblity and reason.
Vince wrote on Jan 17, 2006 2:09 PM:The sites you mentioned in paragraph stating "Some folks feel so strongly about the subject they start whole sites dedicated to persuading you to sell now before it's too late"
That is incorrect, since i have been following them 8 months ago, they have been serving as a guide and commentary.
The advertising on the sites are not displayed by the authors choice. Authors have no control over the ads since the site is a free service Run by google.
off the top of my head a non advertisement sites about the housing bubble
http://www.yuip.com/housingbubble.html
Stan wrote on Jan 17, 2006 3:01 PM:Sorry but your article is not very useful. Maybe there wouldn't be so much stuff on the 'net if you would have more frequent articles in the paper to read!! Daily updates!! Something informative, not filler. The fact is real estate sales have slowed down considerably in many areas including San Diego, Phoenix, Miami, Las Vegas, Boston.
I think all the housing bubble discussions are good information. Some are from highly regarded collegiate economists, and they explain forecasts with great detail. Some others are just opinions and should be taken as such. The majority are concerned with how fast prices have increased in some areas. Most think a correction is coming in high-priced markets (like San Diego). Every homeowner should be concerned about the value of their residence as home equity is the largest percentage of most family's net worth in the U.S.
Why don't you or the newspaper discuss something important such as realtor/appraisal fraud (realtors pressuring appaisers to "hit the number"), mortgage broker fraud, "stated income" loans, and "interest only" loans? Educate your readers about these alarming trends that are going on with this housing game. I remember in the early 90's when the SELLER had to bring a check to escrow to sell his house as he owed more on it than it was worth. With so many "no money down" loans it could easily happen again. There is no written guarantee of future linear annual home price appreciation.
In my neighborhood I have seen price reductions of $50,000, $100,000 even $200,000 and same places are still for sale, some for over a year. In Pacific Beach where I live a house has been for sale since last June. The seller has reduced the asking price several times from $950,000 to $899,000 to $799,000 and now $725,000 without a single offer. There are currently 5 times the number of homes for sale (15,000)compared to March 2004 in San Diego County. Conditions have clearly changed to a buyer's market. I see "Price Reduced " signs in front of homes for sale everywhere.
Salaries are not going up anywhere near fast enough to keep up with local house prices, and high paying jobs are not exactly plentiful in this area either. Who can afford $4,000 or $5,000 per month mortgage payments (with property taxes and insurance)? Very few people earn that much monthly after taxes!! Many people are moving out of this area because they cannot afford to buy a home but you do not talk about that fact in the paper much either.
A home should be where one lives for a long while, not a short term "flipper" investment to make a quick profit. Maybe it will return to that definition once again soon.
Mark wrote on Jan 17, 2006 3:20 PM:It is all about the exotic mortgage, 5 yrs ago $1500 a month payment would get you about a $200,000 home. Now $1,500 a month using an exotic loan month will get you a $500,000 house (thats why houses have shot up so much). Your right the Feds and Media have been warning people against a housing bubble. Which in return has slowed things a bit. The Regulatory agencies have purposed new Guidance that will basically eliminate exotic loans if they follow through with them sometime in March 2006. Instead of people saying they are approved for a $600,000 home the banks will only approve them for considerable less. The Fed has warned us prices will drop. What out this summer into next winter what housing prices will do.
Pete wrote on Jan 17, 2006 3:43 PM:Andrew Kleske is a tool. He does not get it the very websites he advocates for chacking parity of housing prices are the same that are controlled by the industry.
He Has sided with the non bubble folks. Okay! Fine! wanna bet your editting position on it that it does not drop atleast 20% by close of 2007?
I did not think so!
Tony wrote on Jan 17, 2006 4:13 PM:When the New Guidance comes out on halting the exotic loans the landing will most likely be hard. Peoples buying power will be cut in half.
Patient Investor wrote on Jan 17, 2006 4:20 PM:* Over 30% of home sales have been for 2nd homes- either as rental or vacation
* Over 50% of loans are Interest Only ARMs- all of which eventually come due at a higher interest rate and with accelerated principal payments
* Many areas seeing avg mortgage payments (i.e. holding costs) being double the market rate for rent.
* Inventory rising, time on the market rising.
* Not one single comment on this board backing you up.
It's going to happen, not to every house and not in every neighborhood but there's going to be either a major correction or over a decade of stagnant prices.
JZS wrote on Jan 17, 2006 5:00 PM:There is a significant political component to the ‘pro-bubble’ argument. These are people who think it is immoral to make money off of real estate, especially when so many cannot afford housing. These same people don’t understand the concept of wealth creation, and think that if person A is rich, and person B is poor, that the only way for person B to become wealthier is by taking some of person A’s wealth. Consequently, they are hoping for a housing crash so that (in their perverted understanding of economics) wealth can flow from rich to poor. What they don’t seem to get is that a crash like they hope for would bring dire consequences to people across the income spectrum, especially including the poor. Such a scenario would not bring the outcome they hope for, except the sadistic pleasure of seeing some wealthier people damaged or destroyed financially.
RealityBased wrote on Jan 17, 2006 5:00 PM:I appreciate that others have taken the time to write a reasoned and logical response to this author.
Personally, I find this type of "non-news-journalism" sickening and pathetic. How about including some facts and logic Andrew Kleske? Is that too much work for you?
While I and any thinking person (not motivated by personal interest) would disagree with your article, I 100% agree with one of the posters who correctly labeled you a TOOL!
Vista John wrote on Jan 17, 2006 5:35 PM:Economics 101: The average person has an increase in their pay 3-5 percent a year from 1997 -2004 the homes have increased 20-25 percent a year. OK this is real easy folks, what 8 to 9 percent of San Diego County residents can afford a home. Their will be a correction at some time either the prices hold and employees pay somehow catches up or home prices drop. If there is no correction, I suspect more people will leave California. See that was real easy now you have all that I learned in Economics 101 for free. Then it will get easier to figure out what to do just build more homeless shealters.
JPR wrote on Jan 17, 2006 9:10 PM:I find this article a fairly good evidence of the phase of "denial" that characterizes the blow off of asset bubbles. You have to keep the "game" going for as long as possible and trying to discredit blogs is part of such a strategy. The author acts as the usual media parrot; no analysis and plenty of convenient omissions (which have already been pointed out by previous posts). I read a fair amount of those blogs and I find the comments posted articulate and insightful, much better than most of the real estate "reporting" we have these days. Thank God for bloggers to keep their head on their shoulders while the media gave up its role a long time ago.
Mike G wrote on Jan 17, 2006 9:15 PM:Even the commentors seem more informed than this man. I wonder if he is going to read them all.
bear wrote on Jan 17, 2006 9:17 PM:2004 crash didn't materialize. 2005 crash didn't materialize. Will 2006 be the year? Hard to tell. Is 5% correction a crash? Spring come will shed some more light on this matter.
Busting2006 wrote on Jan 17, 2006 9:34 PM:Obviously, you did not throughly read into these blogs (by not knowing how thehousingbubble and thehousingbubble2 are related for one thing), and you are casting away their research in ignorance.
The following sites are also very crucial to understand our current economy.
http://economicrot.blogspot.com/
http://bubbleinfo.squarespace.com/
where's the objectivity? wrote on Jan 17, 2006 9:50 PM:The problem, Mr. Kleske, is that NCTimes has already lost all of its credibility as an unbiased news source when it allowed Mr. Forrester of the North San Diego Realtor Association to make comments like "[there is] no widespread financial overstretching to purchase a home in our region" in October, 2005. The problem today, of course, is housing costs at 100% from 2000 level. Anytime you have a 100% increase in price, there will be financial overstretching. In this case, the overstretching comes in the form of I/O ARM loans. My question to your colleague, Mr. Chamberlin, and now to you, remains the same: looking at all the facts, will you actually advice your newly graduated son or daughter to overstretch with I/O ARM loans just to get into a condo conversion?
Richguy wrote on Jan 17, 2006 10:00 PM:These dumb bunnies that think homes are going to drop 50 percent in value deserve to be poked fun at. My whole portfolio could drop 50 percent and I'd still see a 5-year return of about 10% per year while they get 1 percent on their passbook savings accounts waiting for the bubble to burst. AND EVEN IF IT DOES THEN I'll JUST BUY MORE FROM THE SCAREDY CATS THAT SELL ON THE DOWNTURN, USING MONEY BORROWED FROM BANKS THAT HOLD THEIR PASSBOOK SAVINGS ACCOUNTS.
don't listen to the bloggers wrote on Jan 17, 2006 10:08 PM:listen to the SD Union Tribune: "San Diego County's sizzling housing market fizzled last year, when prices climbed only a third as fast as they did in 2004 – the largest year-over-year drop in appreciation on record." followed by..."The last time DataQuick Information Systems reported a similarly dramatic shift was in 1990, when prices rose 3.7 percent, compared to a 16.6 percent rise the year before. That milestone heralded the beginning of a seven-year real estate recession."
cy wrote on Jan 18, 2006 12:28 AM:I have found some of the blogs that you listed as very useful as sources of information on the economy, housing market trends, exotic mortagages, lending practises, etc. More useful than the information that I get from real estate sales people. You neglected to mention how most of these blogs take articles from newspapers and magazines from all over the United States and can even find some articles from English newspapers. I actually found this North County Times article on one of the blogs. Thanks for listing some additional blogs for me to look into. Here are a couple of other blogs that you haven't listed that are worth checking out.
http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/
Barry wrote on Jan 18, 2006 5:19 AM:Why didn't the media complain when prices were rising pricing almost everyone out of the housing market. Rising prices at this insane level has also robbed our children of home buying age the opportunity to purchase ther first home in most areas. Although most housing bubble bloggers are renters, not all are,............. like myself.
Vista John wrote on Jan 18, 2006 7:06 AM:Hey just go back to the first housing down turn in San Diego County and see what they wrote then. Now that would be some good information for this paper to report. Give us some real history here to help the citizens of this coounty instead of biased opinions.
Horace wrote on Jan 18, 2006 7:12 PM:I think everyone missed the point. Housing prices will drop a little, and rise a little but in the end you'll still have a place to live. I'll never have a landlord agin.
Bob wrote on Jan 19, 2006 8:23 AM:Horace, I don't think you can call 100% price increase in 5 years "rising a little bit."
Vista John wrote on Jan 19, 2006 1:59 PM:The prices of homes since 1997 have risen somewhere around 230 % so yes a 5% percent drop is really not anything to worry about. But we all must realize that these homes real value did in no way increase by 230%. So if a large drop happens, in the long haul really would not mean anything either. Of course if you were one of the daring ones that took out one of those crazy loans that is not good.
D wrote on Jan 21, 2006 8:56 PM:How much advertising $ does the NC Times get from realtors and homebuilders for all those home listings?
'Nuff said.
Brian ... wrote on Oct 21, 2006 10:48 AM:I think you are more concerned with the arrival of newcomers to YOUR industry; writing good editorials. I think the success of the online blog comes from the fact that advertisers will not influence the editorial content. In Musings about Money, the blog hosted by San Diego's Most Opinionated Mortgage broker, readers get good, unbiased information.
You, Mr. Kleske, have to be an industry cheerleader because the Realtors and Builders pay you to be one (through their advertising in your newspaper). The transparency of the print journalists' compromised editorials have driven the everyday reader to the blogs for unbiased information.
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