Poll shows Democrat Busby in lead in 50th

By: WILLIAM FINN BENNETT - Staff Writer | Monday, March 27, 2006 11:00 PM PST ∞

With potential votes split between 14 Republican candidates in the 50th District congressional race, the front-runner apparently continues to be Democrat Francine Busby ---- one of two Democrats vying for the seat, according to poll results released Monday by El Cajon-based Datamar, Inc.

The poll was based on 580 automated telephone interviews conducted with so-called high propensity voters in the 50th District, those who voted in the 2004 presidential primary and general elections and in the 2002 gubernatorial and general elections. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.07 percent.

While Datamar Inc. president and chief executive officer Raul Furlong said he believes his poll was highly accurate, a competing pollster and several candidates in the 18-candidate field or their campaign officials questioned the poll results, saying they were unreliable because the survey failed to rotate the order in which candidates' names were read to voters.

Asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, respondents' ranked the top seven candidates as follows:

- Cardiff School Board member Francine Busby ---- 36 percent

- Republican and former congressman Brian Bilbray ---- 11.7 percent

- Republican and businessman Eric Roach ---- 11.2 percent

- Republican and former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian ---- 10.6 percent

- Republican and military defense consultant Scott Orren ---- 5 percent

- State Sen. Bill Morrow, R-Oceanside ---- 4.8 percent

- Republican and business owner Alan Uke ---- 3 percent

When respondents answered their phones, they first listened to 12 recorded questions asking them about their everything from their party affiliations to their levels of education. Then they were read a list of candidates names starting with those candidates Datamar officials believed to be the most widely known of the 18 congressional hopefuls. Then, the recording again read the name of each candidate ---- this time in reverse order, starting with the least known and progressing to the most widely known. Respondents were asked to push a button on their telephone keypad indicating which of those candidates they would vote for if the election were held that day.

That part of the survey's methodology has some candidates upset, candidates and campaign officials said Monday.

"The poll is inaccurate," Uke said.

He said he has had his own poll conducted by a private company, and those poll results show that "right now," most voters are undecided.

Uke spokesman Brian Lanza said that Datamar violated the standard polling practice of rotating the order in which candidates' names are listed.

"What you do to get an even sampling is to rotate the names, because there is a distinct advantage to the person who is first on the list and a distinct disadvantage to whoever is last on the list," Lanza said.

As it turned out, Uke's name was last on the list of names that respondents heard when it came time to vote.

A spokesman for Morrow's campaign also protested Datamar's failure to rotate names.

"It's a real disservice when a poll holds itself out as credible when its methodology is so clearly lacking in credibility," said Morrow campaign spokesman Joe Justin.

A poll taken earlier this month showed Uke and Morrow with similar percentages of the vote.

Not everyone was unhappy with the results of the latest poll. A poll by San Diego-based Competitive Edge Research & Communication earlier this month showed Kaloogian with 7.1 percent of the votes, based on interviews with likely voters. However, the Datamar poll, which was conducted last week, showed Kaloogian with 10.6 percent of the vote.

"I loved it," Kaloogian said of the Datamar poll.

A comparison of the results of the two polls also showed Roach's standing increasing from 7.9 percent of the votes to 11.2 percent. Likewise, Busby's standing increased from 33.5 percent of the voters in the Competitive Edge poll to 36 percent in the Datamar poll.

Bilbray, who in the Competitive Edge poll captured 14.8 percent of the vote, stood at 11.2 percent in the Datamar poll.

Bilbray campaign spokesman Steve Danon said that Datamar violated standard polling practice in not rotating the names of the candidates, and for that reason he doesn't put much faith in the poll results.

"It's got 18 names; by the time they get down to number 17 and 18, people are exhausted," Danon said.

In addition, he said that automated surveys are notoriously unscientific.

In a Monday phone interview, Datamar president Furlong said he had two reasons for not rotating names.

"Had we put the most well-known names on top, less well-known candidates would have said 'that's really unfair,' " he said.

In addition, by not rotating the names, "it enabled (us) to get a better feel for those voters who seemed to be truly committed to their candidate," ---- committed enough to sit through the entire list of names without hanging up, Furlong said.

Reached by phone Monday, Competitive Edge president John Nienstedt said that rotating names is standard procedure among legitimate polling firms, Datamar's failure to rotate candidates' names was "highly suspect," he said.

"In my world of professional pollsters, that would be a huge problem," Nienstedt said.

Contact staff writer William Finn Bennett at (760) 740-5426, or wbennett@nctimes.com.

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http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2006/03/24/news/top_stories/21_01_313_23_06.txt

Poll respondents ranked 50th Congressional District candidates as follows:


Cardiff School Board member Francine Busby ---- 36 percent

Republican and former congressman Brian Bilbray ---- 11.7 percent

Republican and businessman Eric Roach ---- 11.2 percent

Republican and former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian ---- 10.6 percent

Republican and military defense consultant Scott Orren ---- 5 percent

State Sen. Bill Morrow, R-Oceanside ---- 4.8 percent

Republican and business owner Alan Uke ---- 3 percent

Republican and business owner Bill Hauf ---- 2.7 percent

Republican and former Del Mar Mayor Richard Earnest ---- 2 percent

Republican and businessman Bill Boyer ---- 1.7 percent

Libertarian Paul King ---- 1.5 percent

Nonpartisan William Griffith ---- 1.3 percent

Republican Scott Turner ---- 1.3 percent

Democrat Chris Young ---- 1 percent

Republican and intelligence security analyst Delecia Holt ---- 0.6 percent

Republican and California Highway Patrol Sgt. Jeff Newsome ---- 0.5 percent

Republican and former judge Victor Ramirez ---- 0.3 percent

Republican and retired ship inspector Milton Gale ---- 0.1 percent

Don't know ---- 3.6 percent