Zen Question wrote on Aug 9, 2006 10:22 PM:Quiet! Is this the sound of the bubble popping?

Dont need to be quiet wrote on Aug 9, 2006 10:53 PM:Its a loud POP. I bet we'll be down 10% by Christmas and 30% over the next 3 years. Time will tell.

affordability wrote on Aug 9, 2006 10:54 PM:Just because the market is out of reach for most , doesn't mean it will come down.... look at Palm Springs...duh

About Time wrote on Aug 10, 2006 12:34 AM:Of course it was quiet. How long can people be conned into paying for real estate which is considered 70% overvalued according to reliable sources? How long can a market last when less than 10% of the people can afford an average priced home? People have to wake up some time. p.s. to Zen Question, that's hilarious!

Pittsburgh wrote on Aug 10, 2006 1:10 AM:Pay no attention! There is nothing to see here! Keep on moving, nothing to see here. There is no bubble popping. Rest assured that your one br apartment that you call a condo is still worth $400k.

Phil wrote on Aug 10, 2006 3:43 AM:Yes I would agree the housing cost forced me out of the area, I lived in Escondido and in a area that was not comfortable for me as a single white male and when I tried to relocate to a better area I was priced out and my residence could not sell because if the population of Hispanics and they could not afford to purchase. So I lost on both ends and moved out of state.

Bob wrote on Aug 10, 2006 4:41 AM:I am sure glad I sold my Escondido condo in March.

I Told You SO wrote on Aug 10, 2006 5:40 AM:I hate to say I told you so but as stated in past comments on these articles written by NCT to support the Real Estate Agents who made 6% for doing virtually nothing other then writting up sales agreements. Now watch as they quickly bail out of the business now that the boom is over! All potential buyers should be VERY, VERY careful about buying right now. I would bet the market value of North County housing will drop significantly over the next couple of months (10 to 20% in some high priced areas) and bargins will be had. Patience is now the watch word of real estate and you will know if you have a good agent if he doesn't try to force you into buying a house right now but counsels patience until the market settles on a value!

Too Hot Too Long wrote on Aug 10, 2006 7:20 AM:Soft Landing? Hardly! Now the "experts" are trying to find a different euphemism for "soft landing". They just can't seem to swallow "crash" after their persistently optimistic prognostications.

San Marcos resident wrote on Aug 10, 2006 8:04 AM:I need an opinion. We have 2 rental properties, one an ocean-view home on a large lot east of 5 in Cardiff, another a condo in Park Del Mar in Solana Beach west of 5. Where is the market going to go with properties like these?

Jay wrote on Aug 10, 2006 8:14 AM:Blame the weather!

ANTHONY wrote on Aug 10, 2006 8:16 AM:The falsehood of the real estate market is finally being unmasked and reality is taking it's place. Easy money and low interest rates have created an artifficial real restate market, noit real economic fundamentals. Real estate agents/brokers are liars! Anthony Temecula, CA

Sanguine wrote on Aug 10, 2006 8:27 AM:There's a 3-bedroom house nearby offered for %500,000.00 that sold for $300,000.00 three years ago, according to the County recorder's office. You can bet my first offer will be less than $400,000.00. MUCH less.

Cindy wrote on Aug 10, 2006 8:45 AM:The entire real estate market was mostly fake to begin with. Finally reality is settling in.

William wrote on Aug 10, 2006 8:54 AM:The banks and lending institutions also share some of the blame. Back in the early nineties it was much harder to get loans, in the last few years jumbo loans were much easier to obtain. Should be interesting to see if the ARM loans fall into default especially once home valuations fall below their purchase price like they did in the early nineties. Purchasing homes now would be like purchasing stocks in late 2000 as stocks valuations were heading south but far from their bottom.

To San Marcos wrote on Aug 10, 2006 8:56 AM:Just an opinion, however, the prices will go down like all the rest and in fact in higher price areas the percentage of correction will be higher. This is based on past adjustments, I say adjustments becuase contrary to others opinions / comments the prices will rebound in the future. It will probably take 2 to 3 years depending on the economy. You also have another problem, that is rental properties / income and the tax liabilities associated with them. You should check with you tax person and financial person to see what your best moves are short and long term BEFORE you place them on the market!

Nick wrote on Aug 10, 2006 8:58 AM:to I Told You So: You don't have a clue my friend. My wife has been in Real Esate for almost 25 years in San Diego, and she works harder than you could possibly imagine. I know, because I watch her every day. She does far more than "writing up a few sales agreements"as you put it. Real Estate is not a 9 to 5 job. She works most every weekend because folks like you can only see property on the weekends. She works evenings and is usually glued to her cell phone every time we are on vacation, just so she can coddle her clients that can't seem to understand that my children & I would actually like a week alone with Mom. Do you have any idea how much the advertising in newspapers and magazines cost to for your home? Several hundred to thousands of dollars comes out of my wifes pocket, and thats up front money. Of course, most homeowners want you to hold an open house every weekend until it's sold, there's more of your fee for you. I won't even get into the legal responsibilities. An agent and his or her broker can be sued by buyers and sellers, for years down the road. That is one of the most important facts that homeowners don't understand. When you use an agent, they are legally responsible for following all rules and regulations. If you sell your home by yourself, you now shoulder all of the legal responsibilities for following the rules and regulations. Thats a tough thing to do if you're not a Real Estate agent. I think you would do well to be better informed before running off at the mouth. Most agents work extremely hard for their 6%, if they are not, you should find yourself another agent who has honesty and integrity flowing thru their veins like my wife.

Dave wrote on Aug 10, 2006 9:15 AM:The population of the county declined last year, while new houses and kept on getting built. Do you really think it's not still declining, even while people have more children?

Concerned wrote on Aug 10, 2006 9:37 AM:It's all part of the cycle, but don't get too excited. Barring catastrphic change, Southern California real estate will always be at a premium. That said who can afford to live here anymore? I don't know what the answer is. More government? Less government? Free market? As long as there are people with money (where do they get it all?) willing to pay the price, there will be people willing to pay for it. Personally, I just hope to hang on to what I have so I can pass it on to my 4th generation California kids who probably won't be able to afford a house here. Old Californian, not rich.

Tess wrote on Aug 10, 2006 10:23 AM:Blame the "lines of credit" and the easy "home equity loans" that have gotten people in debt way over the price of their homes. It is extremely expensive to live in San Diego...never mind housing. Cost of life insurance, cost of health insurance, utilities, etc. You borrow to live. Then the feds up the interest rates. Is anyone making a profit on selling a house??

Spin Spin Spin wrote on Aug 10, 2006 10:45 AM:My head is spinning, love the real estate agent spin. "There is more to choose from", "I finally get to negotiate a deal" Of course the bubble popping people have their own spin. Of course it is a bad time to buy. Sad reality is that most people will still miss the boat on buying. FACT: buying at the top of the cycle and selling at the bottom of the next cycle will still put you in a better position than renting. Hope all you apt. renters are saving up a down payment, paying off your cars and credit cards and getting ready to purchase. Reality is that most are not and will become bitter whiners and eventually move away from the area.

Jon B. wrote on Aug 10, 2006 10:46 AM:Over-valued market, I love that ignorant statement. Value is what a willing buyer pays a seller. There is no such thing as "an over-valued market". There might be over-priced (unsold homes)

J wrote on Aug 10, 2006 11:24 AM:Condos and townhouses in several areas like Penasquitos and Sorrento Valley have dropped almost 20% from the peak. For example, townhouses in Wateridge in Sorrento Valley have dropped from high 500k to mid 400k. Condos and Townhouses built in 2003 in Camino Del Sur and 56 have dropped 20% in asking price. Many townhouses in this areas are owned by flippers and they are now stuck. They asked for low 600k for 2br/2ba townhouse with garage last year and the current asking price is in mid 400k. I guess the new airport proposal is not helping for houses in these areas either.

Matt C wrote on Aug 10, 2006 11:33 AM:No one can predict the market, only time will tell. Seasonally, this is a slow time of the year; weather has traditionally affected sales both good and bad in winter/spring/and summer. Interest rates are likely the key. With a Fed pause now, and another in a month, many home buyers may feel confident enough to make the plunge. Buying a home w/ an adjustable rate in a rising rate market is tough and risky. If that element is elimanated, buyers should return to some degree. Next spring will be important. Only those home owners that took on a great deal of risk are feeling the pinch and will be forced to sell lower than they want. Historically, any major real-estate down turn was preceeded by an economic "event", base closings, major recession, etc.

To Matt wrote on Aug 10, 2006 12:22 PM:The fact is you can predict the market (this is normal economic cycle that started 2 years agao when the fed began raising the rates and now...) and the people that are mostly in trouble right now are those that got adjustable mortages at 1% based on ther available income and now have a 5 or 6% mortage with nearly the same income. Blame the realtors who sold them that short sighted plan so they could make their 6%. No ethics in that business, then again, why should we expect any.

lp wrote on Aug 10, 2006 12:34 PM:I don't hear anything. Maybe a little air letting out is about all. If you are a current owner in Souther Cal, don't listen to the housing market predictions. San Diego and its counties are where God himself would choose to live. The housing market will be closing in on prices comparable to the Bay area very soon. Hold on owners..Your property will see great gains over the long haul.

Nick wrote on Aug 10, 2006 12:59 PM:What's up with my earlier post, Mr. Ed?

Ouch! wrote on Aug 10, 2006 1:24 PM:This is going to hurt everyone in the pocketbook.

Who to blame now wrote on Aug 10, 2006 2:09 PM:You mean nobodys compalining about illegal aliens.

CYNTHIA wrote on Aug 10, 2006 2:35 PM:IT'S ABOUT TIME THAT THE MARKET SETTLES A BIT FOR THOSE PEOPLE(LIKE ME) WHO'S STILL TRYING TO GET INTO THE MARKET. UPDATE, THE FED DID NOT RAISE THE INTEREST RATES. SO THAT'S ONE MORE THING TO CONSIDER. NOW THERE'S MORE CHOICES FOR BUYERS, CONSIDERING THE ADDED PERKS FROM SELLERS.

American-Irish Resident wrote on Aug 10, 2006 3:50 PM:Smart buys and kudos to San Marcos. If the prices drop over the short term as predicted, I will be looking for properties like yours for the long term investment portfolio. You have done well for yourself with SB and Cardiff properties. I own a home in coastal Encinitas and have been waiting for a downturn for investment purposes.

Northcountybuilder wrote on Aug 10, 2006 6:52 PM:the market is only going to adjust five percent. The slow down is caused by the 1.6 trillion dollar fannie mae / freddie mac fiasco. Thanks to the feds minipulating the market. Thats why the rates been climbing to fix that problem. They also tried correcting the problem by restricting loan qualifications locking them down to FICA scores from 620 and up you can buy a house. Below forget it the interest rate will kill you. The FACTS ARE THAT ALL PEOPLE WHO OWN A HOME OR WANT TO BUY ONE SHOULD PAY THE SAME INTEREST RATE NO MATTER WHAT THEIR FICA SCORE IS WHY ? SIMPLE EVERYONE IS TREATED THE SAME IN FORECLOUSURE. RICH OR POOR THEY TAKE THE HOUSE IF YOU DONT MAKE THE PAYMENT. Agian ask yourself why do you need to pay all these charges to buy a house ? I can buy a car for 300,000 in a day why not a house ? The System is a train wreck. In Europe most the peoples homes are paid for because there not being screwed like us in America. Its time for big changes in the way properties are sold. You do not need all these charges in escrow. You do not need people to broker loans. If banks did there jobs and where held to 2 percent over fed rates. Everyone would own a home. We the taxpayers funded Fannie mae and freedie mac and thier screwing us. Also how can the FICA system be even accurate over 300 million people Handled by only three companies ? Its also manipulated by the banks and mortgage companies. Everyone knows the system needs to fall back to the old ways of if you have collatoral you can have a loan. These credit cards don't fall for that wait till you have money to get it you will be better off. Everyone who wants to buy a home should have the right to do so with the same interest rate. I build the big homes 5000 square feet and up we have a Sold waiting list yea if you have money there is no slowing down in this range. Its the little people and the middle class thats getting screwed to the wall because of the feds meddling in the market with our money. Its time for the people to stand up and fight this system. It needs to be equal to all. The Federal Courts treat everyone equal why cant are own Goverment treat the home buyers equal.

Escondido Down by $200,000 wrote on Aug 10, 2006 7:03 PM:There are guys that bought near new 2,700 sqft SFR in Escondido 8 months ago for $750,000 now facing Lennar's new Eureka Springs development selling 2,700 sqft SFR right down the street for $550,000. yes, you heard it right, down $200,000 or 27% in 8 months. Some soft landing we got going here.

Mary wrote on Aug 10, 2006 7:33 PM:Bought a fixer upper 2 bedroom house in Long Beach in 1984 for $177K, put in $20K, peaked at $330K valuation in 1992, fell to valuation of $156K in 1996. Six months ago the same 2 bedroom property sold for $700K which was $50K under the market because it needed a new roof. The market will drop, and it will come back overtime. We still got the best weather in the country if not the world.

Jacquelyn wrote on Aug 10, 2006 10:52 PM:My husband and I sold our house in San Marcos last November. We made $250,000 We were thinking of moving out of state where we could afford a house with over 2000 square feet that didn't cost $700,000! Anyhow, we're still renting here and my husband thinks we should wait and see what happens here before making the move. He'd rather stay here. I'm scared! Any advice? :(

To Jacquelyn wrote on Aug 11, 2006 12:08 AM:What do you have to be scared of? You don't have a half-million debt hanging over you, you don't have late payments, or an ARM adjusting. You aren't upside-down on your mortgage and the property tax man isn't breathing down your neck. You have a quarter of a million sitting somewhere. I assume that the interest that it is making probably covers your rent. Renters have nothing to be scared of right now, homeowners have a lot to be afraid of.

Marc wrote on Aug 11, 2006 2:42 AM:In the end why buy? In Canada where I come from most people rent because of the flexibility if offers to just move out and get that new better paying job accross the country without the headache of selling the house etc... Even if you pay off a house you are still stuck with real estate taxes amounting to 5-10% of the value of the house per year. Kind of being forced to rent your own place that you supposedly own!!! In cali it is a question of time before it reaches this level. In most countries the governements will also subsidize low rent housing for seniors... so the whole argument of owning a house for your old age is kapput there. In America it seems we are devolving into an archipelago of gated communities for the happy few amid squalor and slums... which is the third world after all. Heck FEMA couldn't even deliver a bottle of water in 5 days to the stadium during Katrina, so third world it is that you are now America!

OC guy wrote on Aug 11, 2006 4:45 AM:If you have a good job, and family ties, then you should stay in the area. I don't think most of the REIC (Real Estate Industrial Complex) promoters posting here want you to study the data and learn from history. "The median condo price fell 10 percent year over year to $359,000 in July, the report stated." The crash has begun and it will be prolonged as the REIC fed at least 30% of the job growth in the last 5 years. The local economy is tanking with the REIC. You will start seeing deals come on the market soon, but be sure to wait, as the market tends to over-correct itself. You can potentially purchase at 60-70% discount in the condo market and 30-40% discount in the single family homes market. Yes, the condo market has crashed and will burn soon. But the single family homes will be dragged down and offer you some great deals. Remember "cash is king" and to "stash your cash" and look out below. Never "catch a falling knife" that is the San Diego real estate market. Wait until investor sentiment is so negative that everyone thinks it a foolish idea to invest in San Diego before purchasing your home. This will guarantee that you are buying at the bottom. Meanwhile, enjoy your hard-earned cash earning real interest while anyone still in the REIC lose 6-10% per year of highly leveraged assets (translating to losses of 60-100% per year.)

Pat wrote on Aug 12, 2006 5:49 PM:Jacquelyn- I agree with your husband. If you want to stay in this area wait it out. Prices will go down as more homes sit on the market unsold. The only probelm is that if you want to finance a new loan the rates will probably be going up a bit more.

lordy wrote on Aug 13, 2006 2:39 PM:It is end of story for suburbia. Higher gasoline prices will kill the suburban living arrangement. I recommend a documentary titled "End of suburbia". Also be sure to check out this website http://www.theviewfromthepeak.com

North County Surfer wrote on Aug 17, 2006 2:54 PM:I'am very glad that the market here in San Diego County is turning into a buyer's market. Hopefully prices will continue to fall so someone like me can get into the market. I hate sellers' markets because very often, especially here in Southern California, the sellers get greedy and ask too much for their property. It's also good to see that as prices continue to fall, fewer people down here (especially in places like Del Mar, Carlsbad, and Cardiff) will be able to cash in on the value of their homes and be able to go out and buy fancy new cars (such as BMW 745i's, High-end models of Lexus, Mercedes, and Porsche), and other needless material items in order to try and fit in with the stereo-typical Southern California "Elite".