Sell
Research and Tools
Parts & Service
- Auto Parts
- Service & Repair
- Quick Searches
- Auto Repair
- Oil Change
Study: Even with new freeway lanes, congestion will get worse
By: DAVE DOWNEY - Staff Writer | ∞
Despite all the region's road-building plans, freeways in San Diego and Riverside counties are only going to get more crowded and experience more Los Angeles-style congestion over the next quarter-century, according to a new study being released today.
While the counties' rankings among the nation's most traffic-choked metropolitan areas will improve slightly, the level of congestion will deteriorate to the point where, in 2030, traffic jams will be almost as pervasive as they are in Los Angeles today, asserts the study by the Reason Foundation, a Los Angeles-based free-market think tank.
"That's a pretty big wake-up call, or it should be," said Robert Poole, the group's director of transportation studies, by telephone from Florida. "That's a very sobering message. And we found similar results over much of the country."
Indeed, the only reason the counties' rankings are forecast to improve is because traffic in other urban areas is expected to deteriorate faster.
San Diego County has the nation's eighth-worst congestion now, based on 2003 traffic statistics, and is expected to slide down to 16th place by 2030. Similarly, the metro area composed of Riverside and San Bernardino counties is predicted to improve from 11th to 19th most congested.
That doesn't mean driving will get any easier. Rush-hour trips in San Diego County that, on average, take 41 percent longer than trips at other times of the day now, will take 70 percent longer in 2030, the study states.
In Riverside County, peak-period trips are projected to go from being 37 percent longer than other trips to 64 percent longer.
By comparison, in Los Angeles, which has the dubious distinction of having the nation's worst congestion, trips take 75 percent longer in rush-hour today.
"It doesn't matter to the driver stuck in traffic in San Diego what the ranking is, if the traffic is worse 25 years from now," Poole said.
According to the 54-page study, Los Angeles will remain the nation's traffic jam champ in 2030, with rush-hour trips there averaging almost twice as long as other trips. Rounding out the Top 10 will be Chicago, Washington, San Francisco, Atlanta, Miami, Denver, Seattle, Las Vegas and Minneapolis, in that order, the study states.
Because of the growing congestion, the study suggests that transportation planners need to accelerate construction of new highway lanes. The report says San Diego County needs 1,400 new lane miles and the Riverside-San Bernardino region needs 906 new lane miles, and yet existing transportation plans will fill a small fraction of the need.
Southern California transportation officials said the study is probably on target.
"We have been playing catch-up for many years," said Joe Kellejian, a Solana Beach councilman and transportation chairman for the San Diego Association of Governments, San Diego County's regional transportation agency.
Kellejian said the $20 billion statewide transportation bond measure on the November ballot could prove "a giant step" toward speeding up the flow of congestion-reducing improvements. About half the money would be set aside for road building.
Poole maintains the bond measure backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would not do nearly enough. He advocates multiplying funding for highway construction and shifting some money away from public transit projects to highways.
Poole said the foundation takes issue with the popular sentiment that communities cannot build new freeways fast enough to keep pace with traffic, and the increasing focus on transit and land-use-oriented solutions.
"What the L.A. experience proves is, if you stop adding freeway capacity, then you get ever-worsening congestion because the number of lane miles driven keeps growing and the population keeps growing," Poole said.
Poole cited Houston, on the other hand, as an example of a city that, for a time, kept pace with growth by aggressively building new roads in the 1980s and 1990s. Communities can in fact keep pace if they build enough new freeway lanes, he said.
"I would agree, but everything is a matter of money," Kellejian said. "We could build elevated second decks over our existing highways. We could build toll lanes under existing highways. We could build a third (freeway) access out of North County. You can do anything if you have enough money."
The reality, said Ron Roberts, a Temecula councilman and Riverside County transportation commissioner, is that agencies don't. And with so much of Southern California paved over, in many cases agencies don't have the land, either, he said.
Partly for that reason, the Reason Foundation recommends retrofitting existing freeways with special lanes reserved for car pools, paying solo drivers and buses, similar to those on Interstate 15 in San Diego and Highway 91 in Anaheim Hills.
"Surveys show that people love them," Poole said. "They provide a type of congestion insurance for motorists."
Such lanes also offer a vehicle for offering a fast and efficient bus system, Poole said.
"And yet it doesn't cost you an arm and a leg like rail transit does," he said.
-- Contact staff writer Dave Downey at (760) 740-5442 or ddowney@nctimes.com.
More Stories
L in C wrote on Aug 30, 2006 10:50 PM:Gee! How much did this study cost us. Anyone can tell, that is if you drive the freeways, that it is only getting worse. And we have our politicians to blame. They allow the building of thousands of homes and the influx of thousands of people knowing full well what impact they will have on the traffic and population of our cities. Seems to me the benefits of allowing the contractors to build is related to these elected officials bank accounts. Because anyone with any intelligence can see that more people means more traffic and worse commuting. But were talking about elected officials and their intelligence factor seems to be mute!!!!
Gary in Murrieta wrote on Aug 31, 2006 8:25 AM:Instead of wasting money and resources on Carpool Lanes and the Sprinter : why not just fix the freeways for everyone. Or is Caltrans saying that cannot be done?
Strange wrote on Aug 31, 2006 9:34 AM:Why is a "free market think tank" advocating for taxpayers to build more roads? In a free market, we'd all have to build our own roads, and rent the right of way from each landowner the road crosses. Instead of 99 cents per music download, it will be 99 cents per property line crossed. And the comparisons of rail vs. freeway cost are always so strange. In a transit system, the government pays for both the infrastructure (rails) and purchase and maintenance of vehicles (trains). But a freeway cost only counts the cost of the infrastructure. If you add in all the cost of the cars and car maintenance, freeways+cars cost far more than rails+trains.
Can't believe it wrote on Aug 31, 2006 10:35 AM:With regard to increasing highway capacity in SD county, I can't believe that Joe Kellejian actually said, "You can do anything if you have enough money." Really? Tell the NIMBYs that--they're the biggest obstacle to easing gridlock and improving regional transportation, NOT lack of funds. They fight EVERYTHING. I'll bet more money will be spent (that is, wasted) fighting NIMBYs in the coming years than will be spent on actual road construction.
Common Sense wrote on Aug 31, 2006 11:36 AM:Getting Mass Transit online, that works for the entire county is the best use for more funds, not less funds ... as Mr. Poole suggested. make it easier and timely for me to travel on mass transit to get to my Chula Vista job from Oceanside, and I will gladly leave my single person driven car at home.
John wrote on Aug 31, 2006 1:25 PM:We add almost no new freeway lanes to existing freeways. The five year I-15 project will add one new lane for general purpose use. We don't build new capacity despite what the politicians and CalTrans would have you believe. The politicians have decided that the citizens don’t need freeways so they don’t spend much money adding to the basic capacity. They then claim they have tried to increase capacity and it didn’t help.
Hmm wrote on Aug 31, 2006 2:08 PM:traffic wasnt bad on May 1st. In fact it was quite nice. Maybe we dont need anymore lanes.. we just need more Mexican pro immigration rallies!!
Whootowl wrote on Aug 31, 2006 3:38 PM:"Surveys show that people love them," referring to special reserved lanes. Yes, these lanes are the perfect application of Republican philosophy where those of wealth and means are priviledged. Bless the citizens of San Diego County whose purchase of every sundry item (sales tax) helps fund construction of these priviledged lanes. And when too many riff-raff begin using the lanes, we'll just up the tariff a bit more as we did recently when the number of cars began to exceed 3 per quarter mile. It is important, after all, for doctors, lawyers, and business executives to have an easy, speedy trip to the office.
My Comfortable Car wrote on Aug 31, 2006 6:10 PM:I have never found a public transportation system as confortable as my car! And I never will. Look at the Sprinter. For 400+ million, 1/3 of the passengers get to stand. The rest get cheaply upholstered seats.
JB of San Diego wrote on Aug 31, 2006 6:21 PM:What do we need? I-5 needs twice as many lanes from Tijuana to Kern County. I-15 needs twice as many lanes to Las Vegas. I-805 needs twice as many lanes along its entire length. I-8 needs more lanes at least as far as Alpine. Hwy 54 isn't finished yet, but it needs twice as many lanes. Hwy 56 was just finished a year or two ago, but it needs twice as many lanes. Hwy 52... it probably needs three times as many. Hwy 125 needs to be extended north to Temecula, but I'll leave it to someone else to decide where to route it. Hwy 78 needs five more lanes in each direction. Maybe each freeway wouldn't need so many lanes, if there were good alternate routes. But alternates don't exist. Need to travel from Escondido to Rancho Bernardo? Good luck finding a single gravel road as an alternate, if I-15 is blocked. When all these roads have been built or improved, then we can go ahead with some kind of mass transit. Or maybe if we're double-decking the freeways, we can go ahead and put some rails on the third deck.
L in C wrote on Aug 31, 2006 6:44 PM:Before the I-5 freeway was built a man named Joe Parson suggested that this new freeway be six lanes in each direction. Taking into account future needs and a hefty monetary savings. He was scoffed at. Well, as history shows us he was a man of vision. If government had taken his suggestion they would have spent a little more money to save the eventual mega millions needed today to make this freeway wider. So it is as it was, government never looks toward the future for they only plan for today. No guts to do what is logical but rather just enough to pay for the bandaid situation at hand and just enough to be left over for their own pockets. Does anyone in government actually do thier job for the interest of the citizens?
Well golly gee! wrote on Aug 31, 2006 11:29 PM:Imagine that! Tax dollars paid for a study of the obvious! ROTFL! - Hey, Public Transit blows in North County. Sprinter? What a joke. When the busses seem to be running a pathetic useless country bumpkin schedule. The Coaster only works because they drive people to work in Sorrento Valley, and it's still a big time sink. Take lessons from real cities and make the transit work. ... and ask Alaska how to build highways in record time. Construction season does not need to last 7 years.
Walt wrote on Sep 1, 2006 4:35 PM:Despite promises in November 2004 to extend TransNet and relieve congestion, the chickens are coming home to roost. Reasons are very simple. For nearly 20 years 40% of funds have been going to mass transit which carries less than 2% of trips. And that's the plan for another 30+ years. But this Reason Foundation study shows for about 2/3 that amount we CAN recover from past mistakes, and build enough roads to eliminate severe congestion. Wake up call for leadership.
Skip wrote on Sep 2, 2006 8:20 PM:I agree with Hmm....... It looks like our cities and freeways were designed for United States Citizens. Get rid of the Illegal Aliens, just like on May 1, 2006, and our transportation problems will be solved. It's all about Over-population; people! Time to wake up and secure our borders and control our destiny as a nation.
First name only. Comments including last names, contact addresses, e-mail addresses or phone numbers will be deleted. Attempts to misrepresent your identity or impersonate any person will not be approved. All comments are screened before they appear online, so please keep them brief. Comments reflect the views of those commenting and not necessarily those of the North County Times or its staff writers. Click here to view additional comment policies.
Today's Stories
Advertisement