Math on immigrant population doesn't add up, experts say

By: EDWARD SIFUENTES - Staff Writer | Saturday, November 4, 2006 11:06 PM PST ∞

ESCONDIDO ---- Take a guess: How many illegal immigrants are there in Escondido? The size of the population of illegal immigrants has perplexed demographers because there are no accurate counts ---- in Escondido, the state or the country.

But Escondido Councilman Sam Abed says he has the answer.

Abed, a gas station owner, says one in four of the city's residents is an illegal immigrant. That many illegal immigrants are overcrowding apartments, straining city resources and deteriorating the quality of life for other city dwellers, he said. That's why he supported the city's new rental law, which prohibits landlords from renting to illegal immigrants.

Opponents of the rental ban say it is unconstitutional and will lead to discrimination against Latinos. Several civil and Latino rights groups filed a lawsuit against the city Friday to keep it from implementing the law.

In a recent nationally televised interview, Abed repeated his unsubstantiated figure.

"We have about 35,000 illegal immigrants, an estimate, out of 140,000 residents in our city," Abed told Fox News last month. "That's a huge number. The impact on our culture, on our sovereignty, on our education system and our health care has been tremendous."

Several researchers say Abed's figures may be inaccurate.

"His numbers are questionable," said Rob Paral, who recently completed a study on the illegal immigrant population by congressional district.

Abed has said he arrived at his 35,000 figure by extrapolating data from a study, based on the 2000 U.S. Census, that found about half of the Latinos in Vista were ineligible to vote because they are not U.S. citizens. Abed said he calculated that, because Escondido and Vista have similar demographics, half of Escondido's Latinos were illegal immigrants.

But that's too far of a leap, said Jeffrey Passel, a senior research associate with the Pew Hispanic Center who has studied the size of the illegal immigrant population.

"To go from ineligible to vote to illegal immigrant is simply wrong," Passel said.

Abed, a naturalized U.S. citizen from Lebanon, acknowledged that his figures may not be entirely accurate. But he continues to repeat them on TV interviews, from his city council seat and in response to e-mails regarding the rental ban.

"The 35,000 figure may not be accurate, but it's a good indication," Abed said Friday. "It could be more."

The U.S. Census Bureau apparently contradicts Abed's assertion.

There are about 28,800 foreign born residents in Escondido, according to the 2005 American Community Survey released by the Census Bureau. The figure includes both legal immigrants and illegal immigrants.

About 39,600 of Escondido's 133,000 residents in 2005 were foreign-born, according to the Census Bureau. About 10,700 of the city's foreign-born population were naturalized U.S. citizens.

Paral was commissioned to produce his study by the nonprofit, pro-immigration American Immigration Law Foundation, based in Washington. The study said that, based on national figures, the population of foreign-born people in the United States roughly breaks down to about a third who are citizens, about a third who are legal residents and about a third who are illegal immigrants.

If those nationwide rates hold true for Escondido, Paral said, the number of illegal immigrants in Escondido may be much lower than Abed's estimate.

Not all immigration researchers agree with Paral's approach. John Keeley of the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington immigration think tank that favors more stringent immigration controls, said Friday that it's impossible to estimate illegal immigrant populations in border towns and agricultural areas, where the population changes by the season.

"In border states, we see remarkable churn, with people coming and going all the time," Keeley said. He said he agrees with the national estimate that about one third of foreign-born people in the U.S. are here illegally, but that applying that trend to any one community is faulty demographics.

"I don't think you can portion it quite that way," he said. "There are so many factors at work."

Paral's study estimated that illegal immigrants make up about 6 percent, or about 42,000, of the 688,000 people who live in the 50th Congressional District. The district includes Escondido, San Marcos, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar, parts of northern San Diego, and unincorporated parts of the county.

Under Escondido's rental law, the city would require landlords to provide proof that tenants are in the country legally. The federal government would verify the tenants immigration status. Only if the federal immigration officials say the documents are not valid would the city step in and require landlords to evict the tenants or face fines.

The law has bitterly divided the community.

Many have filled council chambers, rallied in front of City Hall and held candle light vigils at Grape Day Park. Many of them have also written e-mails to council members. Council members Ed Gallo, Marie Waldron and Abed, who voted in the majority to pass the rental law, pointed to the e-mails as evidence of community support.

Abed told Fox News that a large majority of the residents were in favor of the law, based on phone calls and e-mails city council members had received.

"The majority of the citizens, and it's over 90 percent, overwhelmingly supports our effort," Abed said.

By contrast, a North County Times review of the e-mails sent to council members dating from July 1, shortly before the rental ban was first proposed, to Oct. 5 ---- after the first vote on the ordinance was taken ---- indicates that the messages were about 72 percent in support of the ordinance to 28 percent against.

Of the more than 240 e-mails, many were copies repeatedly sent to several council members at once. Some were from people who do not live in Escondido.

In a city where about 42 percent of the population is Latino, Gerardo Gonzalez, past director of the National Latino Research Center at Cal State San Marcos, said the e-mails may not be an accurate measure of the community's feelings about the ordinance.

"You have to do more than read letters and e-mails" to gauge support, Gonzalez said. "You have to reach out to (constituents) to find out."

Contact staff writer Edward Sifuentes at (760) 740-3511 or esifuentes@nctimes.com.

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Jay wrote on Nov 4, 2006 11:30 PM:Using the U.S Census figures to estimate illegals is ridiculous. THEY ARE ILLEGAL, therefore they avoid the count. The non-profit group referenced above (see Paral)is a Latino political action organization in disguise.

Coyote Trail wrote on Nov 5, 2006 12:24 AM:Here is my calculation. Federal law requires all non-citizen immigrants, legal or illegal, to register their address with the Federal Government (8 USC 1301-1306). Thus 28,900 - 3 (3 is the number of presumably legal immigrants complying with the address registration law) leaves an estimated 28,897 illegal aliens residing in Escondido!

escondeeter wrote on Nov 5, 2006 12:39 AM:The headline's misleading. The word 'some' should be added between 'up' and 'experts'.

Do the Math wrote on Nov 5, 2006 5:51 AM:Sam has said all along "90%, 90%, 90%". Now an outside look shows emails are running at 72%. The conclusion is simple: Sam Abed is a liar.

the witch hunt is on wrote on Nov 5, 2006 6:01 AM:When the wolves are put in charge of the sheep, bad things happen. Whose next--the Lebanese?

To Coyote Trail wrote on Nov 5, 2006 6:14 AM:You and Abed must hail from the same school. What's your degree in: "Forgone Conclusion Mathmatics"? You no doubt aced the course on "make the stats speak for you".

To Jay Coyote Escondeeter wrote on Nov 5, 2006 6:22 AM:Forget about the federal numbers. Why don't some of you comment on the fact that your fearless leader Abed has been inflating his own numbers all along. Comment on that. I'm anxious to hear what all you people from Vista, San Marcos, San Bernadino, Riverside, Lemon Grove, etc. think of him now. I know, I know... you still love him and you always will. Pin his picture to your shirt, lock up the trailer and come on down to good old Escondido and walk around like an idiot. Doesn't change the fact he's a liar.

I knew it! wrote on Nov 5, 2006 6:34 AM:Funny how Abed can say his figures are accurate measure. According to Keely "it's impossible to estimate illegal immigrant populations" By the way folks, Tom D'Agosta one-uped Sam with his recent attack on Pfeiler. D'Agosta put 42,000 in Escondido. Can't we just get some smart folks up there? It can't be that hard.

To Sam Abed wrote on Nov 5, 2006 7:52 AM:SO do you think it's true Sam? The old saying that if you tell a lie long enough and loud enough people will believe it? You definitely found your nitch as a politician. You're a natural.

Longtime Resident wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:04 AM:Forget the statistics. Just look around Escondido. Look at school enrollment, the ER at Palomar Hospital, people driving and walking around town, Mission Park, anywhere. To me, Sam Abed's 25% is a very conservative number. The illegal aliens' drain on our resources is unquestionable. I'm just relieved that people like Abed and Waldron have finally had the guts to address, and hopefully, remedy the problem.

Note to Illegal Alien Self: wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:06 AM:Don't forget to fill out the 2005 American Community Survey, and Census Forms. Tell the government how many people (families) live in our house or apartment. Don't forget a count of cousins living in the garage. Tell the government how many children we have in public schools. And don't forget to tell the government how much we really make in under the table income. List all social benefits we collect, and after filling out this very long and detailed form of our personal habits, then mail these forms back to the government. Do not make any mistakes as the government is relying on these forms to figure out how many people really live here.

Robert24 wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:33 AM:Coyotr Trail is right, however many are here is the correct number. There is no need to guess or "profile". Require everyone to register, even if it means going house to house, and the real number will come out. I know it is unrealistic to do that, and it will never happen. Who really cares what the number is? One is too many. Why is it so difficult for people to get this? Obey the laws; if you are illegal, you are breaking the law, and your time is up, no matter what your race or nationality. How hard is that to understand?

Mike wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:37 AM:The census figures are riduculous so don't think they are right either. The simple answer is no one knows how many illegals there are but any one with any intellegence would say the better estimation would be at least 3 to 4 times the census figures. Just go to any pverty area and you will see 10 people in a one bedroom apartment.

So What wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:43 AM:Anything over 0 percent illegal immigrants is too high. The rental ordinance may be hung up in litigation but Plans B and C are already in full gear. Kudos to Escondido for the checkpoints and code enforcement sweeps! Keep the pressure on!

El Guero wrote on Nov 5, 2006 9:00 AM:Who could possibly know how many illegal immigrants there are, since no one's allowed to ask? One thing I think everyone can agree on is that the number--whatever it is--is large.

Discrimination? wrote on Nov 5, 2006 9:29 AM:This is not discrimination, it's a law against illegals. Mexican-Americams, please stay here and we wish you the absolute success. ANY illegals here: British, Canadian, African, Mexican, whatever....get out! Do I sound like I'm being racist?

EthinicStudent wrote on Nov 5, 2006 9:53 AM:Funny, I don't remember the Census asking for my immigration status when I spoke to them in 2000. Also, I never received a survey from the Census in 2005. My conclusion, I highly doubt the census chose all the homes with foreign residents in them.

The real numbers to know wrote on Nov 5, 2006 9:54 AM:The actual numbers aren't as important as knowing what they ACTUALLY cost taxpayers! Why can't we determine how much it is costing to educate, provide health care and social services to illegal aliens? I would rather know the dollars and cents of how they hit my pocketbook!

BOING! wrote on Nov 5, 2006 10:11 AM:Sam's estimates are conservative. There are far more illegal alien terrorists here than 40K. Illegals are literally destroying Escondido.

Three Kinds of Lies wrote on Nov 5, 2006 10:45 AM:Beloved American humorist Will Rogers once said there were three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. There you go. Sam Abed is using statistics to suit his own agendas, at the expense of the taxpayers of Escondido. And I for one, am not laughing very much.

Lets Get A True Count wrote on Nov 5, 2006 10:55 AM:Lets get an actual count of the illegals living in Escondido and see who is more correct, Sam Abed or Jeffery Passel. Start going door to door in the "Bario", then block by block, checking residencey status and deporting those here illegally. In the end, we can give an award to the one who is most correct. If we want to fast tract this, start today at the Swap Meet where illegal venders, sell illegal counterfit merchandice to of all people, illegal aliens. Do this, and we can take care of three problems at once.

El Guero wrote on Nov 5, 2006 11:07 AM:To Three Kinds of Lies: fyi, the author was Benjamin Disraeli, not Will Rogers.

Sam's numbers are VERY wrote on Nov 5, 2006 11:20 AM:conservative. All you have to do is look at the construction industry. It is almost 90% illegal aliens. How do I know? I have worked in it for almost 15 years and they are like thugs running out even legal latinos from working in construction. Not to mention all the people who go to all these NON_PROFIT clinics. What a joke.

Crazytalk and gibberish! wrote on Nov 5, 2006 12:07 PM:Does it really matter what the actual numbers are? I think we can all agree the numbers of illegals here are high. Why argue about numbers? If you must have a hard number, you can do a head count on their way out. This is another "SSS" (Silly Sifuentes Story), as opposed to the typical BSSS. The attitude towards entitlement grabbing illegals has shifted with the new awareness that was granted to the people of our country on May 1st. Thanks for the rally. May we have another soon? Don't forget to vote!

Freddy wrote on Nov 5, 2006 1:56 PM:Remember the Alamo!

Republicans, This Is Why You MUST Vote! wrote on Nov 5, 2006 2:44 PM:Immigration: Look, I'm honked off about Dubya's terrible handling of illegal aliens (they're not guest workers, darnit!). However, rep/con/tairs in the House were the ONLY thing that kept his "all-inclusive" bill about immigration "reform" being put into play. Instead, they forced the creation of a security first bill. Granted, it's only 700 miles, but that's a start compared to what the opposition would provide. Lib/dem/soc/commies actively encourage illegal aliens and will provide them with amnesty followed by citizenship, because 1) they figure they'll get their vote and 2) they further the creation of an underclass, which provides lib/dem/soc/commies with a powerbase. Allow them to come into power, and you can kiss the borders, your job, the English language and America's culture goodbye.

Sure wrote on Nov 5, 2006 3:41 PM:I already voted and voted completely Democrat for the first time ever. The Republicans like the comment above are sickening. Quit being so afraid of Mexican people. The Republicans have had control for years now and failed with every policy, and decision made. To vote Republican now is foolish. If nothing else having conflict(a Republican executive and a Democratic legislature) will at least stall everything and they cannot screw up any more.

Real American wrote on Nov 5, 2006 4:33 PM:Keep up the good work you morons. Even if you succeed in removing a third of the Latino population now. Eventually they will legally outnumber us in a generation or two whether you like it or not. Do you think they are going to forget what we are doing to them? Do you think they will forget all this hate toward a race that you consider inferior? Perhaps we will be kicking out of the city the baby whom one day could come back to Escondido and be the city Major or who knows maybe the governor of California. I know this is what all this panic and hysteria is all about. If overcrowding is the problem, we should enforce existing housing codes. Do not turn this issue into an opportunity for your racial attacks.

To Sure: wrote on Nov 5, 2006 4:37 PM:No one is afraid of the Mexican people. I see thenm all the time when I visit Mexico. Our national population just passed 300 Million. (300,145,785) Why just last night another 6,000 Illegal Aliens snuck accros our Southern Border. Mexicans only make up 56% of our Illegal Alien population. In 20 or so years from now, when our population surpasses 400 million, I would be curious to ask you then, how you feel about uncontrolled Illegal Immigration. R/ Skip

To Real American wrote on Nov 5, 2006 5:01 PM:Don't assume all us of hispanic descent will be pro illegal immigrant. I'm concerned where my taxpayer money goes and will vote for any ordinance/candidate against illegal immigration. My fellow hispanic friends agree with me. Why are you making this a race thing. It's an ILLEGAL vs LEGAL issue.

Skip wrote on Nov 5, 2006 5:03 PM:Natures' Remedy for Overpopulation is disease and famine. We already know that none of the millions of Illegal Aliens crossing our borders are having the prescribed medical checks, mandated by our Federal Government. As far as famine goes, I know we are heading for a water shortage crisis like never seen before in America, and then it is downhill from there. When I grew up in California, we never had electricity, water, and gasoline shortages. Remember during the illegal Alien day of May 1, 2006, and all the freeways seemed to work, and shopping was a joy, and the schools could teach. Well those days are gone, and only getting worse.

To MarieH wrote on Nov 5, 2006 5:06 PM:To MarieH from Hispanic Immigrant. Yesterday called me a liar (See Anti-illegal immigrant group rallies in Escondido) and said “I'll bet you aren't even legal in the U.S”………Do you want put some money on that bet?.......I can show you my University diploma from Mexico, my diplomas form US colleges, My naturalization certificate, my US passport etc. Do you really want to bet me?.............I still say that Claudia Malinche Spencer is wrong. The majority of Latinos do not support Malinche Spencer’s point of view.

To - To real American wrote on Nov 5, 2006 5:25 PM:From Real American…..Good for you…..At least you will have the opportunity to switch sides.

Truth Seeker wrote on Nov 5, 2006 5:55 PM:THANK YOU EDWARD SIFUENTES...I was getting tired of rhetoric and half-truths. The closer we get to the true number the better we are able to deal with the issues. The 50th District numbers are a start, but I'd sure like to see Escondido's numbers.

Al wrote on Nov 5, 2006 7:13 PM:Anyone organization that disputes the obvious huge number of ILLEGAL's in EscoMExico has a hidden agenda. Just go to Palomar Hospital ER any Saturday. Hopefully you don't havea legitiamte emergency, otherwise you'll be in-line behind many ILLEGAL's. Just ask the nursing staff.

To El Guero wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:14 PM:"As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information." -- Disraeli. Thanks. You're right about the origin of the three kinds of lies.

Forest for the trees wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:48 PM:This is nothing more than a diversionary discussion that has little to do with reality, and has zero impact on the issue of illegal immigration. You may as well attempt to count the hairs on your pet. You'll find that the end result is that it's furry, but you knew that before you started counting. The only logical reason to count would be if you were assigning seats on the bus for the ride home

To Al wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:49 PM:Yah, right. I'm SURE the U.S. Census Bureau has a "hidden agenda." NOT!

Coyote Trail wrote on Nov 6, 2006 8:25 PM:The comprehension award goes to 'El Guero'! Federal law requires ALL non-citizen aliens to register their address, and to inform the Federal Govenment of any change of address within 10 days. To fail to register or to submit the change of address form is a crime (8 USC 1301-1306). Thus, non-citizen immigrants are illegal aliens, even if they have a green card, if they have failed to register!

Ruben wrote on Nov 7, 2006 7:33 AM:You know I voted for Prop. 187, I don't mind the fence. This ordinance is hateful and will affect American hispanics and that is what p.... me off about this ordinance. When your forefathers came to this land they killed the Indians, brought black slaves in and chinese to build the railroads. They made laws that only whites could drink from certain fountains, and lord forbid if a black man looked wrong at one of their women. This was not too long ago. This ordinance is evil and wrong. I believe the reason this country has survived is because when this all happened there were many good God fearing people, honest, with high morales and knew right from wrong, and believed in the higher law, (GOD). This law is wrong and immoral if we leave God then it doesn't matter like Sodom and Gommorah we will fall!!!

To Ruben wrote on Nov 7, 2006 3:12 PM:Relax man, that was then, those people are long gone dead, try to stay in the present, ok?

Jimbo to Ruben wrote on Nov 8, 2006 1:02 PM:We heard you the 100th time you brought up slaves, Indians, etc. Since you have so much contempt for the white race, do everyone a favor and find a country that is as good to live in as the US that was founded by non-white people...and MOVE THERE! Until then, stop bashing our country and the white race...racist.

Ruben wrote on Nov 8, 2006 9:02 PM:I love all races the problem is you don't. Fox news reported that the Republican party is in danger of losing the American hispanic vote for the next 100 years. I told you dude you didn't listen and I was a Republican. Say what you want you lost!!

Ruben wrote on Nov 8, 2006 9:18 PM:I was on your side Jimbo. I tried to warn you. I hate to tell you, I told you so!!!

Rosa wrote on Nov 22, 2006 12:27 AM:Immigrants do not tax health care, according to woodland news, California.A study released in Nov. found that illegal immigrants place a lesser burden on the nations troubled health care system tha U.S.born citizens. In Los Angeles illegal immigrant adults make up 12% of LA population but only account of it's public health care cost. I seriously doubt that you are worse than Los Angeles. $1.1 billion out of $88 billion used on health care went ot illiegal immigrants in 2000. "$1.1 out of $88 BILLION" How do you like that,you unisured citizens of the US.

former escondido res. wrote on Nov 28, 2006 2:33 PM:I was born in Escondido and grew up there. My grandparents were born there and I have a lot of family still there. My parents are business owners in Escondido. I currently work in law enforcement and have moved out of state. I have just recently become aware of the new ban on housing to illegals. Before the ACLU gets all up tight about the ban they should consider this. THIS IS NOT DIRECTED TOWARDS LATINOS. This is a ban against all illegal aliens trying to establish residency. I don't think american cititzens realize the burden on our economy. The California department of Corrections has more incarcerated illegals than any other state. Approximately 30% of the population incarcerated in the CA system are illegal. The fact that it approx. costs 100k a year per felon, to provide them with meals, shelter, medical treatment and security. This is ultimately what your tax dollars go to. Now, I understand that our government is not doing its job securing our borders. What the American public needs to understand is how politically correct protecting our borders has become. For all of you who believe this is focused at Latinos, take this into account. Mexico's border policy is an entirely different animal. For instance, if your a Guatemalan citizen and are caught on the shores of Mexico. The Mexican Authorities i.e. (army) has the legal right to shoot you on sight.

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