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War game in 1999 predicted problems with Iraq invasion
By: JOHN HEILPRIN - Associated Press Writer | ∞
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue.
In its "Desert Crossing" games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs.
The documents came to light Saturday through a Freedom of Information Act request by the George Washington University's National Security Archive, an independent research institute and library.
"The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake in Iraq was not enough troops," said Thomas Blanton, the archive's director. "But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground."
There are currently about 144,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, down from a peak of about 160,000 in January.
A spokeswoman for U.S. Central Command, which sponsored the seminar and declassified the secret report in 2004, declined to comment Saturday because she was not familiar with the documents.
The war games looked at "worst case" and "most likely" scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what actually occurred after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003:
--"A change in regimes does not guarantee stability," the 1999 seminar briefings said. "A number of factors including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability."
--"Even when civil order is restored and borders are secured, the replacement regime could be problematic -- especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional governments."
--"Iran's anti-Americanism could be enflamed by a U.S.-led intervention in Iraq," the briefings read. "The influx of U.S. and other western forces into Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as would the installation of a pro-western government in Baghdad."
--"The debate on post-Saddam Iraq also reveals the paucity of information about the potential and capabilities of the external Iraqi opposition groups. The lack of intelligence concerning their roles hampers U.S. policy development."
--"Also, some participants believe that no Arab government will welcome the kind of lengthy U.S. presence that would be required to install and sustain a democratic government."
--"A long-term, large-scale military intervention may be at odds with many coalition partners."
On the Net:
National Security Archive: http://www.gwu.edu/.875nsarchiv/index.html
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Outrageous!!!! wrote on Nov 6, 2006 5:16 AM:The criminal arrogance of this administration continues to unfold, as it will for years and years. They knew before they went in, that they didnt have the troops or means to "win" this war. They ridiculed and fired the only general in Rumsfeld's pentagon, who dared to speak the truth. The loss of American lives, the wasted lives of our sons and daughters was warned--but they went ahead, and based upon what they conviently call faulty "inteligence", invaded Iraq, swaggered around on the deck of the aircraft carrier in his jump suit and taunted, Bring it On! There is blood on the hands of this administration and the Republican rubber stampers.
Skip wrote on Nov 6, 2006 6:59 AM:I am not impressed. I had this scenario already figured out just by watching TV
Look: wrote on Nov 6, 2006 9:13 AM:They don't listen to anyone. Just the church.
Of course: wrote on Nov 6, 2006 10:06 AM:It was known. New Orleans was known as well. Wake up. This is a religious war.
To the angry and misguided wrote on Nov 6, 2006 1:43 PM:It was a BIPARTISAN vote that took us to Iraq. Iraq, Katrina and what else, why stop there? Oh yeah, don't forget global warming, high gas prices, illegal immigration, the pot hole out front of your house, your ever increasing waistline and the terrible taste of government cheese. Yup yup, it be dem nasty ole Republicans. Whiners and malcontents, neither of whom offer any viable solutions. The victims are always choking
Skip wrote on Nov 6, 2006 2:28 PM:Unfortunately for us: As bad as the republicans have been, the Democrats will be worse!
Harry wrote on Nov 6, 2006 3:27 PM:I think the Republicans have set the standard for "bad government" with their lapsed ethics, pork barrel spending, criminal indictments and convictions, failure to provide oversight on this the worst and least competent administration of all time. They prove they couldnt even be trusted to look after the well being of the male pages and keep their safe from the Republican alcoholic stalker. They were more interested in maintaining their majority, than the age of majority of the boys. I believe the Democrats will attempt to clean up the mess, reign in white house and then reach out to Republicans of good intentions to address some of the problems that the current do nothing congress wouldnt address. Iraq is high on that list.
Paul wrote on Nov 6, 2006 4:10 PM:Changing majorities in Congress will be a big step in the right direction. This Republican monopoly of the three branches of our federal government has been a fast disaster. As big a problem as the Iraq quagmire represents of the Republican's hubris of telling the world how it will be, the looming deficit growth will destroy the viability of the American economy. This will be a catastrophe that could herald the next Depression. Get the Democrats back in control of the purse strings before its too late!
Phil wrote on Nov 6, 2006 6:38 PM:Nope, what took us to Iraq was as simple as Bush junior going after Saddam for the failed assassination attempt that Saddam tried on Bush senior. Civilians on a mission, not listening to the generals, so what is news about that! Semper Fi!
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