U.S. continuing to resist climate change facts

By: MILTON H. SAIER JR. - Commentary | Saturday, February 24, 2007 7:17 PM PST

On Feb. 2, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a 21-page report, updating the one previously released in 2001. This report represents the consensus views of 2,500 top scientists and policymakers concerned with all aspects of global warming. These people derive from 130 nations, representing many diverse views, values and concerns. Yet they are unified by the overwhelming evidence concerning climate change. The report blames humans for the global warming "runaway train," and this conclusion has now been stated with much greater certainty than ever before. Officials in the United Nations and elsewhere have issued statements to the effect that: "The debate about global warming and its causes is now over. It's time to act."

In previous years, the most significant effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries was the Kyoto Protocol. The implementation of this accord has been thwarted by the reluctance of the U.S. and Australian governments to agree to abide by it. Additionally, increased CO2 production by developing countries such as India and China has resulted in very substantial increases in worldwide CO2 production rather than the hoped-for decline. The report notes that temperatures could easily increase 7 degrees Fahrenheit and cause an ocean rise of 2 feet by the end of this century. The former would cause a huge shift in precipitation patterns and ocean currents, while the latter would displace more than 300 million people who live near the coasts, forcing them to abandon their homes.

In response to the report, former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, a longtime champion of environmental protection, said, "The degree of certainty, which was already very high, is now as close to certainty as scientists are willing to say." However, Bush administration officials downplayed the U.S. contribution to global warming. Samuel Bodman, energy secretary under Bush, said, "We are a small contributor when you look at the rest of the world."

Yet, the U.S. is, in fact, the single largest contributor to global warming, producing more than 25 percent of the world's CO2 in spite of its relatively small population, only 4.5 percent of the total. Compare these figures with those of China, which with 20 percent of the world's population produces 14.5 percent of the CO2. Americans should be careful not to point the finger at others when they themselves are at fault.

The 2007 IPCC report notes that while the data keep improving, and certainty is now essentially absolute, scientists have known for years what is at stake. The last six years have been among the seven hottest years in recorded history, and 2007 is likely to be the hottest of all. The last time the polar regions were warmer for an extended period of time was roughly 125,000 years ago. That warming was caused by a change in the Earth's orbit. Yet no such orbital change accounts for the current warming. The panel concluded that human activities largely, and possibly entirely, are responsible.

The immediate and long-term consequences of global warming will be droughts, heat waves, a retreat of the polar caps and more intense hurricanes. In another hundred years, as much as half of Florida and Louisiana may be under water. Particularly in the U.S. Southwest, higher temperatures with less rainfall and loss of the water supply from snow packs in the Rocky Mountains could be devastating. Changing conditions will create a desert climate for the millions of people who live in these regions. All of the tropical and subtropical parts of the globe will also become dryer. The probable consequences will be: "The fire next time."

Recent scientific projections indicate that the rate of species extinction, currently 25,000 times the natural rate in the absence of human activities, is accelerating. By 2050 at least one-quarter of all living species currently on Earth will be extinct. A major part of this loss is attributed to global warming. Moreover, recent reports indicate that man-made greenhouse gas production has increased as much as fourfold within the past 10 years. Our problem is compounded every year, and no one is really doing anything about it. If this trend continues, the projections of the 2007 IPCC report will have substantially underestimated the dire consequences of our activities.

Referring to the 2007 report, Moira Chapin of Environment California remarked, "Sections of the report read like the Book of Revelation." Yuo de Boer of the U.N. noted that "the findings leave no doubt as to the dangers that mankind is facing. They must be acted upon without delay." French President Jacques Chirac echoed these words saying, "Now is not the time for half measures. We are in truth on the historic doorstep of the irreversible."

But Bodman, representing the American government, said that the U.S. would not cap emissions because that might lead to transfer of jobs and industries abroad. This from a government that provided a huge rebate for Hummer buyers while cutting funding for research on renewable energy. Some officials just cannot, or do not want to, comprehend the magnitude and importance of the problem. And the consequences will be suffered throughout the entire world.

Encinitas resident Milton H. Saier Jr., Ph.D., is a biology professor at UC San Diego. One of the courses he teaches there is titled, "Human Impact on the Environment."

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Reardon wrote on Feb 24, 2007 10:08 PM:Gosh, I wonder why the US is questioning? Al Gore's movie says the seas will rise 20 feet by 2100. The 2001 UN panel said 36 inches. The same UN panel will release its report in May that the UN summary says will call the sea rise to be from 8 to 17 inches. Hmmmm…8 inches or 20 feet -- that is about a 2000% difference. Then the US satellite program says the temperature change from 2000 until today is -- virtually ZERO! Is there a human impact on the natural climate warming that has been going on since the last Ice Age 20,000 years ago? I don’t know…and neither does the author!

Floyd wrote on Feb 25, 2007 4:09 AM:Everybody seems to have forgotten that the temperature range tends to swing between lower and upper limits. Thirty years ago, everyone was worried about "global cooling". Now it's "global warming". Thirty years from now, it will probably be "global cooling" again, and midway between now and then everyone will probably be saying "What was the big deal, anyway?"

AW4cryinoutloud wrote on Feb 25, 2007 1:05 PM:I love it. This is so easy. I'm with Reardon and Floyd. Thanks guys.

Alf wrote on Feb 25, 2007 1:25 PM:"Floyd", Can you see and breathe the difference in the air quality since we started limiting pollution from cars? If you can, were the people who were going to wreck the economy with tighter emissions laws wrong, was it simply a 30 year "Phase"? The air is cleaner now than it was 30 years ago. We can argue about who or what is responsible, but if we can do something to reduce our part in contributing to any problem, no matter how big or what it is, why not?

Reardon wrote on Feb 25, 2007 5:45 PM:Yes, Alf, man can have local impact on his environment...the LA Basin was known by the Indians as the land of Smoke, because temperature inversions kept their campfire smoke bottled. And yes, rivers once polluted are now cleaner...but major changes are at BEST problematic. Modern temperature measurement began in the 1850s, and was dependent for decades on the human sometime taking the measurement on time, sometimes not. Sometimes "doctoring" the books to cover missed data...and all of that for .00001% of the total time of this planet. If the author cannot tell me what the temperature of the earth was, or will be (to two decimal places, please -- I am an engineer) and cannot predict with accuracy the near future...cannot tell me the % of the atmosphere CO2 attributable to humans, and cannot correlate CO2 directly to warming (every time, and within a few years), then I am not interested in theories based on conjecture by Shamans. Some professionals can be found who believe in Palm Readers!

Water Vapor wrote on Feb 25, 2007 8:50 PM:The water vapor in the air has a much greater effect than CO2. Quit watering lawn, gardens, etc. Quit irrigating land. Eat only wild food that nature provides. Plowing and irrigating the land increased its heat retention, and upsets the balance of natural heat dynamics. Asphalt streets also upset the balance of natural heat dynamics. All streets should be covered with naturally occuring shrubs and plants. Roofs on houses also upset the balance of light reflectivity versus coversion to heat. Live only in caves or other naturally occuring spaces. Otherwise, we will all need to eat Soylent Green.

Oh Boo Hoo! wrote on Feb 26, 2007 5:35 AM:The sight of Al Gore on stage last night holding up an Oscar sent all the local crazies into a tizzy, that's for sure.

Engineers wrote on Feb 26, 2007 9:21 AM:should be required to rent the DVD, "An Inconvenient Truth" and learn something from *real* scientists before spewing their foaming-at-the-mouth wrong-headed and irresponsible blather.

Thank you Engineers wrote on Feb 27, 2007 2:35 AM:Ask people in Alaska what's happening to their weather and they'll tell you permafrost is thawing and their temperatures have risen dramatically in the past 20 years. Also Reardon, the temperature change is so little since 2000 because it's barely a seven year period (and we haven't even counted this year's averages). Floyd, There is a temperature range does swing between upper and lower limits, but compare the range of temps now to one sixty years ago and they're rising. I have seen coral bleaching in Australia as well as experienced three weeks of the worst heat wave Europe has ever seen. Global Warming is here and it's a reality. Skeptics should go watch the polar bears drown because they can't get from one iceberg to the other due to melting. I'm not that old so I can't recall the fears over global cooling, but I do know that global warming will cause global cooling due to the interruption of the South Atlantic Current. In my lifetime I've seen how degradation of the environment hasn't only threatened the existence of animals but humans as well and we face causing the extinction of those who cannot adapt to rapid climate change. By the way, Reardon, I would love something from the U.N. to back up your U.N. estimates. Global warming isn't a political issue, it's a moral one!

steve wrote on Feb 27, 2007 9:44 AM:How can someone doubt that we are having an effect on the earth when we know that we put Co2 into the air at an unprecedented rate. We also observe the glaciers melting right before our eyes and see intense weather patterns increasingly more destructive? Is it to far off to believe that we are having an impact. Or is it more far off to believe that god put the earth here for humans to use up while we wait for the second coming? Cmon people...god put this hear so we could take advantage of it and exploit it as this is ALL here for us....dont worry revelations is coming anyways...Bush is making that certain.

Gulf Stream wrote on Feb 27, 2007 10:27 AM:Now we are getting to the heart of Europe's fears! That their climate will become like North America's. London is further north than the northern border of North Dakota. Paris is further north than Toronto. The Gulf Stream brings warmth to England and north-west Europe and is the reason they have mild winters. The average annual temperature of north-west Europe is about 16 F above the average for their latitude. Europe's fear is that global warming will interrupt the Gulf Stream, causing their winter temperatures to plummet.

Reardon wrote on Feb 27, 2007 9:06 PM:Now we know that Al Gore and Tipper live alone in a mansion with 8 nathrooms, and his mansion uses 20 times the national home average per month...and Nancy Peolsi wanted a non-stop plane that produces 10,000 pounds of CO2 an hour while in use. IF Global Warming is so dangerous, why do our "leaders" use so much power that produces so much CO2. When I see the NCTimes with photovoltaic cells on the roof, and the staff all in Prius, I'll start to believe THEY believe in GW!

Dagny wrote on Feb 28, 2007 6:22 AM:Remember the dinosaurs? Montana was tropical. There was NO ice on the Earth, no polar caps. There were no Polar Bears. Polar Bears must have evolved from some other type bear. They can evolve again. There was way more CO2 in the air then the current future projection. The climate changed (rather suddenly- the X factor) but life adapted. The Earth will constantly change. Temperature only has 2 ways to go, up or down. It is impossible to remain static. Global warmists would have you believe that the Earth will turn into a Sun, another impossibility, the physics is not there. If humans are causing all the warming (which is not true-the sun and cosmic rays play a bigger role right now), then shouldn't we go to the source? We need to reduce the number of humans. Anyone that has more than 2 children should be ashamed of themselves. We should be stressing replacement of humans only and encouraging people to not have children. One human will use much more energy than 100 SUVs. Actually, there really isn't a downside to global warming. So the seas rise, move inland. So it gets warmer, move to where it is cooler. Disease? That doesn't make sense. We have chemicals up the kazoo to kill all the nasties. Don't listen to Rachel Carson and her DDT ban. Plus we need to reduce humans anyway. Global warming is NOT a moral issue, it is a political and "religious" issue. "The Religion of Global Warming." The High Priest Al Bore and his doomsday crowd are manipulating the people for the POWER. See Socialism. The Intellectual Elite (see Al Bore and his comrades again) want control over us, the little people. What better way then scaring the bejeesus out of us. I'm not buying it. But I am going to buy another SUV.

Reardon wrote on Feb 28, 2007 11:04 AM:Dagny -- perhaps you can buy Al Gore's SUV. He drives a Lexus Hybrid, which gets SLIGHTLY better mileage than the regular Lexus SUV, but not by much. It certainly "ain't" a Prius, and that does not even count his use of private jets! Al Gore is a hypocrite! (And so is every other GW supporter who is not living in a one-bedroom, one-bath home with photovoltaic and solar water heating, and drivesa prius. (There will be a meeting of all non-hypocrite suporters of the evil of Global Warming this Saturday at noon in the telephone booth at the corner of...)

Seabiscuit wrote on Mar 2, 2007 10:06 AM:This Reardon charactor must imagine himself as some kind of one-man anti-science brigade, with the lies and drivel he posts in these NCT boards. Even if the science were not so ironclad, the entire population of the planet would be far better off doing something to relieve carbon emissions and possibly finding out it wasn't necessary, then merely continuing on its present course and possibly (no, absolutely positively!) heading for disastrous consequences in our own lifetimes. The Reardons of the world have selfish, naive, and irresponsible values that are walking backwards.

Reardon, wrote on Mar 2, 2007 10:42 PM:Name calling aside, the Medieval Warm Period of 900-1200 AD was warmer than today, (grape vines grew in Britain) and that was followed by the Little Ice Age of 1200- 1800 when snow fell in July -- feet of it -- in New England. (There were two years called the Years without a Summer in American history.) Great warmth, great cold, and not an SUV in sight! Completely ignoring geologic history, the known written history of the European continent tells us of periods of times warmer than today and warmer than the predicted future...so how much predicted warmth is natural, and how much is man-made? I don’t know and neither does anyone else.

Bilbo wrote on Mar 3, 2007 8:43 AM:Face it, some people wouldn't be satisfied if Al Gore lived in a mud house powered by solar panels and drove a bicycle made out of recycled aluminum cans to his speaking engagements wearing a loin cloth woven by his wife out of bits of plastic retrieved from a local landfill.

Pragmatic wrote on Mar 3, 2007 10:32 AM:Reardon seems to know much about history. If others would study this little acknowledged fact regarding the earth's climate swings then maybe they can stop stressing over these routine temperature variation. Quit listening to these media experts! They are in journalism because it is easy and they do not have to bother with facts of history.

Dryad wrote on Aug 26, 2007 2:09 PM:I love when ultra-conservative right wingers provide you with a story which leaves out most of the facts. When you add the facts, it is amazing how differently the story reads. The Gore uses so much electricity story is a case in point. Both Gores (Al & Tipper work at home) which most people do not. In addition to taking steps to reduce energy use (compact fluorescent bulbs, etc., the Gores get their electricity from a 100% green electrcity provider. It costs extra to do that. I know because I get my electricity from the same kind of provider in Toronto, Canada, and it costs me $1 extra a day. The comments from those who are relying on their opinions, rather than on the hundreds of scientists who did the research, wrote the report and vetted it. I'm talking about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th report (in four sections - hundreds of pages long). Just try getting through one of the executive summaries for one part of the report. Any rational, reasonable person is going to take the results of scientific research on the scale of the IPCC report over opinions of a few climate change deniers. They may be on the payroll of an oil company; they may be ultra-right wing Conservatives; they may be ultra-right wing Christians; they might be those who enjoy just causing trouble or playing the devil's advocate. As non-scientists (all), we don't have to refute Reardon or the other "flat-earthers". They have not made their motivations clear; they are certainly not providing their comments based on any scientific facts. The debate is over gentlemen (and women if there are any in the debate). Even Bush, who besides gutting every environmental law he and his oil cronies could get a hand on, and who I consider, dumber than a stick, has given up on that line. (Now the current skeptic rant is that it will all cost too much and ruin the economy to do anything about it.) I understand that the Republican, ultra-conservatives have quite the machine going for them, as far as getting in their opinions in on the topic of global warming or anything they may not like. I know you can't tar everyone by the same brush, and that there are reasonable Republicans who are concerned about the environment (who would ever have thought good old Arnie would be one of them). But the others consider politics a war and will do anything to win (absolutely anything), including throwing out the truth to make their point. Let's move on with the real debate. What are we all doing personally to reduce our carbon footprint and are we letting our government representatives know what we want them to do? Of course, until George W. is off the throne, I can't see anything happening. How could it? He has put oil and coal and asbestos, etc., corporate pals or lobbyists or lawyers into any key environmental job you can think of. The ones who have commented who know what it is all about, don't despair about the others. Margaret Mead said that: "A small group of thoughtful people could change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." I read somewhere else that we can be successful if only 10% of the population is fully committed to doing what they can about climate change. I have seen in my life, how one person can make a big impact on a number of others. Because of someone else's persistance at work, I found myself on a Green Committee at work, which got me to make changes at home, too, and into trying to read as many books about climate change and related topics as I could. The Green Committee also had a showing of An Inconvenient Truth for 50 people at work. All this started because of one person's efforts. None of us have to be Al Gore (and lets hope he does win a Nobel Prize this year, for which he has been nominated).

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