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Newest draft of climate report maps out 'highway to extinction'
By: SETH BORENSTEIN - Associated Press | ∞
WASHINGTON -- A key element of the second major report on climate change being released Friday in Belgium is a chart that maps out the effects of global warming with every degree of temperature rise, most of them bad.
There's one bright spot: A minimal heat rise means more food production in northern regions of the world.
However, the number of species going extinct rises with the heat, as does the number of people who may starve, or face water shortages, or floods, according to the projections in the draft report obtained by The Associated Press
Some scientists are calling this degree-by-degree projection a "highway to extinction."
It's likely to be the source of sharp closed-door debate, some scientists say, along with a multitude of other issues in the 20-chapter draft report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While the wording in the draft is almost guaranteed to change at this week's meeting in Brussels, several scientists say the focus won't.
The final document will be the product of a United Nations network of 2,000 scientists as authors and reviewers, along with representatives of more than 120 governments as last-minute editors. It will be the second of a four-volume authoritative assessment of Earth's climate released this year. The last such effort was in 2001.
University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver said the chart of results from various temperature levels is "a highway to extinction, but on this highway there are many turnoffs. This is showing you where the road is heading. The road is heading toward extinction."
Weaver is one of the lead authors of the first report, issued in February.
While humanity will survive, hundreds of millions, maybe billions of people may not, according to the chart -- if the worst scenarios happens.
The report says global warming has already degraded conditions for many species, coastal areas and poor people. With a more than 90 percent level of confidence, the scientists in the draft report say man-made global warming "over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems."
But as the world's average temperature warms from 1990 levels, the projections get more dire. Add 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit -- 1 degree Celsius is the calculation scientists use -- and between 400 million and 1.7 billion extra people can't get enough water, some infectious diseases and allergenic pollens rise, and some amphibians go extinct. But the world's food supply, especially in northern areas, could increase. That's the likely outcome around 2020, according to the draft.
Add another 1.8 degrees and as many as 2 billion people could be without water and about 20 percent to 30 percent of the world's species near extinction. Also, more people start dying because of malnutrition, disease, heat waves, floods and droughts -- all caused by global warming. That would happen around 2050, depending on the level of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.
At the extreme end of the projections, a 7- to 9-degree average temperature increase, the chart predicts: "Up to one-fifth of the world population affected by increased flood events ... "1.1 to 3.2 billion people with increased water scarcity" ..."major extinctions around the globe."
Despite that dire outlook, several scientists involved in the process say they are optimistic that such a drastic temperature rise won't happen because people will reduce carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming.
"The worst stuff is not going to happen because we can't be that stupid," said Harvard University oceanographer James McCarthy, who was a top author of the 2001 version of this report. "Not that I think the projections aren't that good, but because we can't be that stupid."
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Dan wrote on Mar 31, 2007 8:48 PM:I have a question. I remember long ago a TV story about a place somewhere in Northeast Africa near the ocean, where, the ocean's salt water was penetrating through about a mile of land toward a rather large area which is below sea level. My question is, if global sea levels rise, and that last remnant of land became breached by the ocean, would the center of Africa become possibly flooded with ocean, and if so, how would that affect that area as well as climate change, the extinction of more species, as well as people displaced?
Reardon wrote on Apr 1, 2007 11:54 AM:Dan: Read "The Rise and Fall of San Diego" -- written in 1999 by a prof. emeritus of geology at SD State. In that book...pre-global warming scare...he cites the ocean rise and fall, geologically, at 650 feet, and that we are at the 400 foot level...so we still have 250 feet of ocean rise and be within natural, and historic, conditions. I understand that everyone thinks the earth began the day they were born, but is simply ain't so. In my youth I collected trilobites in central Texas, from the days that the Arctic Ocean joined the Gulf of Mexico. Climate changes! Always has, always will. An SUV did not start it, and buying a Prius will not stop it.
Fossil Fuels That Could wrote on Apr 4, 2007 7:13 AM:An SUV may not have started it, but it has definitely had a significant impact on the climate change. Our exaggerated consumption of fossil fuels is what is fueling the warming of our planet. The natural rhythm is being disrupted to such extent that the only way to correct the imbalance is would be to reduce any and all emissions that impact the same atmosphere that protects the Earth. Too many people are pessimistic and think they cannot make a change, but really, every little change is important. If you are a business owner, think of what your business can do for to reduce your carbon emissions. As an individual, you can do you part as well. True, it takes work and sometimes adds an incremental cost; but, in terms of quality of life as we know it, it must be done. People need to stop being selfish and start thinking about the future generations to come.
I conserve.. wrote on Apr 4, 2007 5:42 PM:Like Al Gore, I have become "carbon neutral". I use as much fossil fuel I as I need or want, but I purchase carbon off-sets, so my usage is zero. Really, people need to do this. I am purchasing the right for several trees in Northern California to give off oxygen. This is importnat and you must be responsible!
Reardon wrote on Apr 9, 2007 3:40 PM:In deference to Al Gore's oversize frame, I am buying "pounds offset" to lose 10 pounds. I am buying an offset with an Ethiopian. He agrees to eat less, so I can eat what I choose...but the total caloric intake of the world will decrease. Win-win.
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