What will a Democratic president mean for North County?
By: MIKE BYRON - for the North County Times | Sunday, April 29, 2007 3:14 PM PDT ∞
Democratic presidential hopefuls gather on the stage prior to the first Democratic presidential primary debate of the 2008 election hosted by South Carolina State University in Orangeburg, S.C., on Thursday. From left: Mike Gravel, former U.S. senator from Alaska; Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.; Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn.; former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina; Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio; Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del.; New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.
Associated Press
At least seven Democratic presidential candidates are in San Diego this weekend to speak at the California Democratic Party State Convention. This event, on the heels of the initial democratic candidates' debate on Thursday, marks the beginning of the 2008 race for the Democratic nomination for president.
Given the current president's lackluster standing in the polls (as low as 28 percent in one current poll) in conjunction with the ever-widening gap between public opinion on many issues, on one hand, and the positions of the Bush administration and the Republican Party, on the other, it is likely that one of these Democratic candidates currently visiting San Diego will become president next year. For these same reasons, the next president is likely to have a Democratic House and Senate to work with.
The 2008 presidential nomination race will be both short and expensive. The first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses will be on Jan. 14; several more caucuses and primaries will follow in January. Then on Feb. 5, California, New York and likely New Jersey, Texas, Florida ---- up to about 24 states in all ---- will hold primaries or caucuses. The Democratic nomination (along with the Republican nomination, too) will almost certainly be decided on this day.
This means that only well-publicized, massively funded candidates have a shot at the nomination. Unlike past election years, this "front-loading" of the primary season virtually ensures than there will not be a "dark horse" candidate that emerges during the primary season. The intended beneficiary of this front-loading is the favorite of the Democratic Party establishment: New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. (For Republicans front-loading favors Rudy Giuliani.)
However, Democratic voters are in an assertive mood. Clinton's support has gradually declined from about 40 percent to 45 percent to 36 percent in the current NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Meanwhile, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has seen his support increase from 18 percent to 31 percent ---- within striking range of overtaking Clinton. Support for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has increased from 14 percent to 20 percent. One other potential front-runner candidate needs to be considered as well ---- Al Gore.
All other candidates ---- Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel and Joe Biden ---- are at or below 3 percent. Only 5 percent are undecided. Because time is so short, and these "back of the pack" candidates lag so far behind in media attention, fundraising, and so on, they can be eliminated from further discussion. They may be worthy candidates; however, they will not capture the Democratic nomination and so can be excluded from further consideration as they will not ---- with one exception ---- affect North County.
The exception is that the Kucinich campaign is energizing many local progressive activists. While Kucinich (like McCarthy in '68) won't win, these local activists will significantly sharpen their political skills and organizational expertise. This will be felt in future North County campaigns.
Where do Clinton, Obama and Edwards stand on issues that concern North County voters?
Given the presence of the Camp Pendleton Marine Corps base here, along with many military retirees, military policy ---- particularly with respect to the Iraq war ---- is an important local concern. Edwards and Obama will shut down the war, including removing all currently deployed Marines from Iraq. Rep. Jack Murtha's (himself a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel) plan for "strategic redeployment" will guide their actions in this matter.
Clinton's position on Iraq seems less clear. She has advocated removing combat troops from Iraq, while retaining other troops there for "our anti-terrorism mission" and to "deter Iran." Keeping these roles separate from combating insurgents is impossible, so I have to wonder whether Clinton has thought her position through.
Immigration is a major local issue. Clinton and Obama voted for the President Bush-backed 2006 immigration bill with its guest-worker provisions. Edwards supported it in principle, as well. All three candidates favor an approach toward illegal immigration that includes legal guest-worker status while avoiding systematic deportation of undocumented illegal workers already here. Ironically this is their one area of agreement with Bush. Equally ironically, this is the major area of disagreement between most Republican presidential candidates (and most North County voters) and Bush.
All three leading Democrats favor robust government action to deal with the related issues of global warming and energy policy. All clearly believe that global warming is a critical issue that must be addressed decisively and quickly. In another of the ironies of politics, they will find a receptive partner in California's Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is at odds with his own party (but in tune with most North County voters) on this issue.
All three Democrats favor national health insurance and Medicare reform in principle. Edwards in particular ---- and also Obama, though his exact position is less clear ---- seems favorably inclined to support creating a comprehensive insurance system. Clinton does not appear to favor this approach. She appears to favor incrementally expanding existing programs toward the goal of universal coverage. All three strongly oppose privatization of Social Security and strongly support shoring up the existing pay-as-you-go system.
Should Al Gore enter the race, he would need to do so soon to have a shot. His positions appear largely similar to those of Edwards and Obama, with the exception that he would make addressing global warming and energy policy the centerpiece of his administration.
Six months is said to be forever in politics. However, current trends strongly suggest that next year will see the election of one of these Democratic candidates as president. Clinton aside, this will mean an end to the non-stop deployments for local military families. Immigration is likely to remain a contentious issue. Energy and climate concerns will be addressed in a bipartisan way by the Republican governor and new Democratic president. Overall, the typical North County resident will probably have mixed feelings about these policy changes.
Mike Byron teaches political science at MiraCosta and Palomar colleges. He has a Ph.D. in political science from UC Irvine. He is the author of "Infinity's Rainbow: The Politics of Energy, Climate and Globalization." He was the Democratic Party's candidate for U.S. Congress in the 49th Congressional District in 2004 and a write-in candidate in 2002.
