San Diego real estate market drags down UCLA Anderson Forecast

By: Wire Reports - | Tuesday, May 1, 2007 8:17 AM PDT ∞

SAN DIEGO - Weakness in the residential real estate market will continue to be a drag on San Diego's economy through 2008, according to a report released today by UCLA's Anderson School of Management.

There are signs that the local real estate market is beginning to stabilize, but the economic "wild card" remains the historic high level of mortgage defaults, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

The Forecast said the combination of slower population growth and rising foreclosure rates suggests that the San Diego area's residential housing market will be weak for at least another year.

"However, the absence of any serious economic weakness in the next two years suggests that a protracted bear market for housing is unlikely," according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

"Thus, our forecast for the San Diego housing market is less building, weak sales volumes and flat to slightly falling home prices through 2007, with some improvements starting in mid-2008," the report states.

Employment and income growth in the San Diego region will remain positive but sluggish through 2008 amid a slowdown in the leisure and hospitality industry and construction and mortgage finance sectors.

The UCLA economists who produce the quarterly report will discuss the economic outlook for the nation, California and San Diego during a morning conference at the Manchester Grand Hyatt today.

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Wow! wrote on May 1, 2007 6:43 AM:Geeze-the housing market is tanking.- aren't those MBAs really smart. Anderson predicted a "soft" landing. Once again, it shows book smarts does not mean real smarts. Do not listen to any real estate "experts” trust your own knowledge of the supply and demand of future houses. My thoughts -POP-Prices will correct another 20-25% before stabilizing.

Crystal Ball wrote on May 1, 2007 8:41 AM:Well, more doom and gloom for those who just can't 'hold out' for another year or two to sell their home. No one has a crystal ball. A massive earthquake could mitigate all forecasts. Scared to move into tornado alley in the Midwest? Or hurricane horror in Florida? Blizzards and arctic cold in Wisconsin? Stay here with the gorgeous all year round climate, but the ground could shake, and why is earthquake insurance prohibitive? Anyway, many are discovering that the sunny weather doesn't pay the rising costs of necessities here in America's Finest City.

bullish wrote on May 1, 2007 12:28 PM:what do you want to do before you die or when you retire? go on vacation somewhere warm or the beach. Lots of baby boomers across the usa. Sunny weather can pay the rising costs if youre smart. Gas prices will cause other places to drop but look at places like 92113, still a steal and thats the direction downtown is spreading. Healthcare and biotech will stay and golf and tourism. who cares about realtors income, the computers are taking their jobs anyways.

bullish wrote on May 1, 2007 12:35 PM:wheres my comment? i hate censorship. sunny weather will help san diego cause tourism is good year around here. people do take paid vacations from work and go to the beach and where its warm.

Liar Loans wrote on May 1, 2007 4:41 PM:Any person who knowingly grossly overstated income and/or understated debts in order to qualify for an unaffordable mortgage should be criminally prosecuted. That loan is a ticking time bomb due to a willful criminal act. If the mortgage broker was in on the deception, then there was a criminal conspiracy, and both liars should get enhanced criminal sentences for the fraud. Such 'victim-less" white collar crime can have major negative impacts on the economy and community.

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