Get out now~ wrote on Jun 3, 2007 10:47 PM:Lucky are those who sold last year or before. They're on easy street now, especialy if they moved out of California. Those who hoped home sales would fund retirement could be our next generation of homeless and starving. But sell now and you may get out with something. Which is coming first: housing recession or the big earthquake? Got a crystal ball?

robert wrote on Jun 4, 2007 4:57 AM:HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Optimist wrote on Jun 4, 2007 11:20 AM:Lost my home in the depression of the 90's. Am so happy history is repeating itself 10 years later.. sure hope the home prices go down...down...down so I could pick up a home real cheap.

Erik wrote on Jun 4, 2007 11:36 AM:Ugggh...this article should be posted up for "how to write a confusing paragraph". It is 10% of 700,000 (70,000) and 13% or those (or 9100) houses/condos throughout the county that are 60 days past due. While that is "troubling", in a market in which about 50K to 80K homes trade hands every year are we really talking collapse?

al wrote on Jun 4, 2007 11:54 AM:My gosh, when are Californians going to WAKE UP??????????? We sold our Escondido home 4 years ago and moved out of state. We more then doubled our spuare footage for HALF the cost. We don't have beaches, but we are not drowning in debt either.....

Burnham wrote on Jun 4, 2007 1:59 PM:What Do They Know? It seems like just about everyone in the media has an expert opinion about the San Diego real estate market these days. There are those who say it’s bottomed out. Others say the bottom is still to come. Some predict doom and gloom and say the proverbial bubble has burst, while others take it all in stride citing normal real estate cycles to explain the recent decline in market activity. That observation—a recent decline in market activity—is just that, an observation. No more and no less. The market’s activity has indeed declined. So what? There are those who are of the notion that speculators drove prices beyond what the market can sustain by investing huge sums of cash into buying up much of the existing San Diego residential inventory in the past few years. That—when combined with the already healthy buying trends of the non-investor market—created a “seller’s market” where the demand was perceived as high while the supply was being depleted. This theory, when further extrapolated upon, evolves into a nearly conspiratorial scene suggesting that these speculators then strategically dropped out of the market by selling off their real estate for top dollar while ceasing to invest their cash into buying more. The net effect was the creation of a so-called buyer’s market due to a perception that the growth of available supply (inventory) out paced that of demand. When all is said and done what exactly, you may ask, is the bottom line to this theory? I’m not sure. But I am sure it’s irresponsible to conclude: “the speculators” did it. I think not. My first question to these media driven conspiracy theorists is, “Exactly what did ‘they’ allegedly do?” The real estate market is alive, well, and thriving in San Diego. Why? Well, we all know the answer to that question: location, location, location—it’s San Diego!!! Period. True, that statement needs to be taken in context. So let’s look at the facts to gain some much needed perspective. The effect of supply and demand on some markets is direct; that is to say, when the supply of a high demand commodity is depleted, prices will tend to rise in those markets. While it is true that there are short term and long term consequences to major fluctuations in supply, there remains no commodity with which one can make a fair comparison to real estate. One reason for this is that the effect of supply and demand on the real estate market is greatly governed by perception not necessarily by what is real. And exactly “what is defined as real” when attempting to predict which way the real estate market will go? Nothing. As far as I can tell, it’s all speculation. Moreover, no market is more unpredictable and therefore more volatile than that of the speculator which is, by definition, ultra-risky. But that’s nothing new, right? Of course not, it’s par for the course. Unfortunately, the media lumps that specialized market in with the general market when making their predictions. A pity. Understand that whenever someone attempts to “make a killing” in a very short term there is considerable risk involved. Unless one has a high tolerance for risky speculative investing, the “get rich quick” mentality should be avoided when buying real estate. The home owner’s market, on the other hand, is much easier to read precisely because it is a less volatile, low risk environment that historically has been consistently favorable for medium to long term investors. And that is the environment in which the majority of San Diegans feel most comfortable. Try to keep all the negative spin coming from the media in perspective. After all, according to industry estimates 2006 may have been the third-best year on record for sales. The median price of homes purchased ten years ago increased 88 percent* nationwide and the number of new households is expected to increase by 15 percent** in the next decade. That’s averaged throughout the nation. San Diego’s numbers are even more promising. Moral to the story: Don’t unnecessarily shy away from real estate. With interest rates nearing 40 year lows, now may well be the best time to buy your first home…or your dream home.

john wrote on Jun 4, 2007 4:38 PM:The first mistake is to listen to the Real Estate Association. The reason houses are not selling is because greed, they are not worth what they were two years ago. Last summer three 3500 sq ft with 3 car garage homes, on the Batiquitos Lagoon sold for 859,000, that’s 245 dollars per sq ft. This was 300,000 lower than 2005. Just around the corner a working class 1700 sq ft house with only a two car garage, no view and not near the water is asking 800,000 right now. That is 470 dollars per sq ft. I thought this must be a mistake so I contacted the Agent and offered 500,000, 49 dollars per sq over what I should have. The real estate agent never responded. After the summer I will offer the going rate per sq ft. Real estate agents know little about the housing market; they just parrot the Associations latest angle on how to justify an insane price. The last agent I asked informed me that houses are not sold by the sq ft value and seemed confused as to what I was asking. People are no longer willing to put up with used car salesman tactics. I was here in the early 90’s when my 300,000 dollar home became a 150,000 dollar home. Luckily I was not dumb enough to take equity out of my house or have a creative loan. The good thing about the early 90’s was the weeding out of the get rich quick real estate agents.

John wrote on Jun 4, 2007 4:41 PM:Burnham - Used car or real estate?????? This crash is going to be bigger than the early 90's.

Based on experience, homes will be down for many years wrote on Jun 4, 2007 5:25 PM:After the real estate peak of 1988, many got caught purchasing homes at inflated prices. It took ten plus years before those homes increased in value significantly. I know investors that rented their investment homes for ten years and when they sold the sell price was only $15,000 more than when they purchased. I see lots of multiple families purchasing homes and living together due to the inflated costs of housing. Possibly this is what the future holds for homes in Southern California. I sure would not have wanted my relatives living with my family for many years just for the priviledge of owning a home. Todays investors are back in stocks and mutual funds as housing is no longer increasing but the stock market is going crazy.