The Big ONE is coming wrote on Sep 2, 2007 1:32 PM:Forget about sliding house values and worry more about sliding and quaking earth that will wipe out the homes, the antiques and lives as well. Two years later, Katrina's results are heinous. San Diego/Riverside are 'due' for the "BIG ONE" and sadly, there will be no 20 minute warnings to run to the 'basement shelters.' Live each day as if there is no tomorrow - maybe we'd treat each other a little more kindly, be a wee bit less haughty and selfish perhaps? Give someone your smile - they may not have one of their own.

For "TheBig ONE.." wrote on Sep 2, 2007 2:43 PM:Why,, thank-you, Sunshine!! You sound so full of hope and promise. We should all live each day as if it were our last, but, unless you are some scientist, you don't have any idea what San Diego/Riverside county is due for. You make it sound as if fate "owes" us something. Lighten up..... I bet one of your favorite Dr. Seuess books is "The Grinch".

Reminds Me a of A Cartoon wrote on Sep 2, 2007 4:26 PM:http://www.nctimes.com/content/articles/2007/02/27/opinion/cartoon/thornhill/thornhill022707.jpg

Gary in Murrieta wrote on Sep 2, 2007 4:30 PM:I felt it. It was just one quick bump, and no rolling or anything else.

What? wrote on Sep 2, 2007 5:49 PM:Yep the big one is due any second now. Any second in geologic time.

Objective Third Party wrote on Sep 2, 2007 6:04 PM:I got your drift, Big One, that we all should live today like it may be our last chance to do it right. However, we don't need to let fear be the driving force behind our doing the right thing, which is what I think the 2:43 respondent was trying to say, albeit a bit harshly. I saw the devastation of Loma Prieta firsthand, and how it affected the people in the San Francisco Bay, Watsonville and Santa Cruz areas, and how their character allowed them to overcome the disruption to their lives. Today's jolt was only a reminder for us to practice today to ensure our good character is revealed when adversity is upon us. How we act is the only thing we have control over when nature reminds us who is in control of everything else.

BE PREPARED wrote on Sep 2, 2007 8:11 PM:Being prepared to survive on your own for a minimum of 4-5 days is a good rule of thumb in cases of emergency. Have canned food and a can opener, bottled water purified with a tsp. of bleach for each gallon, a radio, batteries or a generator, medications, a 5 gallon bucket and TP, and a plan that all family members can follow if separated. Keep a list of family members' personal, medical, and insurance information. Have a local designated meeting place in case your residence is inhabitable, as well as a designated person out of state like a relative or friend who can act as the phone or internet contact to relay messages if local communication lines are unreliable. All separated family members can call that person to leave a message about their whereabouts and physical status. Don't forget your pets will also need food, water, and medicine. These small quakes serve as a reminder that the BIG ONE might be around the corner. If we are properly prepared, we can lessen the negative impact to our families which may free us to help those who are less fortunate. Worry accomplishes nothing. Being prepared is our only insurance.

Temblor Man wrote on Sep 2, 2007 9:43 PM:Just curious, but how long is a "geologic second" anyway? I figure if someone thinks using this terminology makes them sound scientifically intelligent, then they should be able to accurately quantify what it really means. Let us all know so we can all benefit from your infinite wisdom.

What? wrote on Sep 2, 2007 10:28 PM:Infinite wisdom? Naw, more like infinite sarcasm. San Diego/Riverside are 'due' for the "BIG ONE" How about a time frame for that? The best minds in geology can't predict any kind of an earth quake the Big One or a little itty bitty one. So to assume that this quake is a sign that the big one is due is silly.

Munsterville wrote on Sep 2, 2007 10:33 PM:well, let's see, if all the time there ever was condensed into one minute, then 1/60 of that would be one second, huh? really don't need to be an einsteinian to figure that one out...4.5 billion years divided by 60, or about 70,000,000 years. yep, the big one's coming any second now...suuuuure am scaaaaared.

Senior wrote on Sep 3, 2007 12:22 AM:The earthquake woke me up here in Murrieta. It was a rolling quake here. Before I bought my house in Murrieta four years ago, I checked earthquake information at the USGS office in Menlo Park. I was surprized to not get better information at Temecula City Hall. There is an earthquke fault that runs from Mexico through Temecula, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore. and continues up into the Whiteir area. It is known as the Elsinore Fault locally. The fault line runs pretty much through Temecula Old town and the old part of Murrieta, one branch runs by the new Senior Center and the new library. The report I read said the worst known earthquake here was in the early 1900s and resulted in some brick chimneys being shaken down, and some bolders in the hills being shaken loose so they and rolled down the hills.

Senior wrote on Sep 3, 2007 12:33 AM:The United States Geologic Survey (USGS) monitors earthquakes worldwide. They have a lot of earthquake information available on their website. They show the exact location of the quake reported above on their map. Also it was at a depth of 2.5 Kilometers. They also have a summary of all the significant earthquakes in the recorded history of California. There is also a fault line through Hemet from way south. It is parallel to the Elsinor fault along here, but it continues to Wrightwood where it joins other fault lines.

Senior wrote on Sep 3, 2007 12:56 AM:The United States Geologic Survey (USGS) monitors earthquakes worldwide. They have a lot of earthquake information available on their website. They show the exact location of the quake reported above on their maps. Also it was at a depth of 2.5 Kilometers. They also have a summary of all the significant earthquakes in the recorded history of California. There is also the San Jacinto Fault through Hemet and Riverside from way south. It is parallel to the Elsinor fault along here, but it continues to Wrightwood where it joins the San Andreas fault lines.

Observer_1 wrote on Sep 3, 2007 1:42 AM:It looks like persons were kidding around about "the big one." When there is a big one on the southern part of the San Andreas Fault it will probably not cause much damage in the area of the North County Times and The Californian papers. But it is faily certain on the San Andreas Fault there will be big ones in our time. That is known based on studies of past big ones. Any rated 7 or above will cause significant damage, but wooden one or two story houses on good foundations usually come out pretty good. There are also offshore fault lines running along the coast off of San Diego. In the San Francisco Bay area they are already years past having a big one. The Loma Prieta 7.1 Earthquake in 1989 caused a lot of damage in San Francisco and Oakland, part of the bay bridge collapsed, some apartment buildings built on land fill collapsed and burned, a double deck freeway collapsed crushing a lot of cars and people. It was centered about 50 miles South of San Francisco. I repeat they are overdue for a big one in or closer to San Francisco that will cause considerable damage. I was in a ten-story building near San Jose, closer to the Loma Prieta Quake epicenter. It was built with a strong steel frame to withstand earthquakes. It was a long rolling earthquake.The building swayed back and forth knocking pictures off the wall and books off of my worktable. At first I did not mind, but it got worse so I dove under my desk and prayed. Afterward we thought the building survived with no damage. Months later it was found out that the welds on many of steel cross braces had ripped apart. It was calculated by engineers if the shaking had continued another 7 seconds the building would have collapsed.

Observer_1 wrote on Sep 3, 2007 2:32 AM:This is so important I hope they post it and people read it. It looks like some of the earlier posters were kidding about geologic time periods and are unaware of the current realities in California The HAYWARD FAULT IS LOADED AND READY TO spring a “BIG ONE” according to earthquake Scientists. When it does it will cause a great deal of death and damage. It goes under ten cities east of San Francisco Bay. It goes through UC Berkeley stadium, Hayward. It is loaded enough to cause as much damage as the Kobe Japan 7.2 earthquake in 1995. A lot more information about this can be found via Google in seconds. The fault could slip about 10 feet horizontally suddenly. Three million people live within two miles of the fault, and those areas were built up before people became aware it was a dangerous fault. Even just a 6.9 quake would result in 1700 road closures. A realistically large Hayward fault earthquake could cause 1,500 to 4,500 deaths and many times that number of injuries. And it could result in 27,000 families loosing their homes, and $23 billion in property damage. Its past horizontal visible slippage is 1,100 feet, believed to have occurred within the past 32,000 years, not ancient geologic times. There are visible recent creep areas in the stadium, and at street curbs and some houses and yards built right on the fault.

Concerned wrote on Sep 3, 2007 7:52 AM:Did you know that Lake Elsinore sits on eight (8) earthquake faults? That should concern everyone in this area. There are maps available and other information that you can research and it tells the true story about Lake Elsinore's and the earthquake faults. This is the year for a big earthquake - the 4.7 was just a warning. This will also be the year of the big floods in Lake Elsinore so get ready for the El Nino it's coming.

Temblor Man wrote on Sep 3, 2007 10:39 AM:Northridge '94, Landers '92, Loma Prieta '89, San Fernando '71. I realize guys like Munsterville will defend the "1 in 70 Million years Einsteinian calculations" by suggesting these were only minor shakers, but to those living at the epicenter, these were all the "Big One". I think we can all agree on the fact that no one will ever know when the seismic odds will catch up to us. However, each of us can choose whether we live our own lives in fear that it may happen today, in ignorance that it will never happen in our lifetime, or in full preparation when your number comes up. USGS.gov is a terrific website - check it out. The more you know, the less you fear.

What? wrote on Sep 3, 2007 10:59 AM:Sorry but I am still not worried about an earth quake. "HAYWARD FAULT IS LOADED AND READY" They can not predict earth quakes. Period. So a statement like this begs the question, based on what? Yes we live in a fault zone. Yes we have a real chance of earth quakes. There are two big quwestions that can not answer, when and where. To say nothing of how big. Hey Munsterville, why one minute? Why not an hour? A day? A year?

Modern wrote on Sep 3, 2007 12:32 PM:There is nothing you can do about earthquakes. There are faults all over California. Just be prepared with some food and water. And live your life like you do everyday

Observer_1 wrote on Sep 3, 2007 2:56 PM:The post by What? at10:52 AM is mostly very incorrect. They can not predict the exact day and time of day yet. However the USGS has a number of scientists working on studying the known faults. I have visited their headquarters in Menlo Park, California. They have a large number of sensors along majors fault lines. Some use laser beams to record even tiny movements on both sides of certain faults lines. They have studied especially movements at Parkfield along the San Andreas fault. Different faults behave differently. But basically a particular fault may be known to to be slipping a certain average amount per year without producing an earthquake. That fault may be one that is known to snap periodically and product a larger earthquake. With a long fault line the quakes along it do not occur at th esame time. When one part has moved two feet for example, and the next part has not moved, we can say stress is building up for it to move. Looking along the San Andeas fault near San Francisco in 1906 there was a sudden horizontal movement of up to 20 feet. There are many pictures of twisted RR lines and roads, and especially fences displaced. The main water supply line into San Francisco was severed. Tha tis why they could not put out the fires and much of the city burned. Another predictor is the frequency of past quakes. If there has been a quake on AVERAGE every 50 years for the past 250 years on a certain fault, and it has now been 80 years, and there has been known movenment along other portions of that fault the scientists can say they are overdue for one. The Hayward Fault is a split off of the San Andreas fault from South of San Jose. It would take you only a few minutes to learn a lot more by just looking up on google or another search engine information about earthquakes, specific fault lines, and a lot more. Also there is lots of information on the USGS government owned web site.

good grief wrote on Sep 3, 2007 7:05 PM:And they said San Diego would fall into the ocean 30 years ago...we're still here. It's all a matter of opinion, nothing you can do but hold on IF it ever happens. But don't live your life on the edge of your seat!

What? wrote on Sep 3, 2007 7:12 PM:Regardless of disparaging remarks about my research I stick by my statements. They CAN NOT predict earthquakes. You said nothing in your post that I didn't already know. Being able to predict the big one accurately would get the person that figured it out the Nobel Prize. Being able to predict earthquakes within any kind of useful time frame would be a huge scientific accomplishment. They haven't figured it out yet. Saying there will be an earth quake in California is about as useful as saying there will be an F5 tornado in the midwest. So I stand by my original criticism of the Big Ones post. How about this, you claim to be well read on the subject, give us an earthquake prediction of some use.

4th generation Californian wrote on Sep 3, 2007 9:27 PM:At 41 I have lived through many earthquakes. I purchased a home in Whittier just months before the Whittier quake, and I survived. My husband was in the Northridge hospital during a Northridge quake and we survived. My Parents, Grandparents, and Great-Grandparents all experienced earthquakes in So. Cal dating back to the 1800's and they survived the quakes and they lived to ripe old ages. Bottom line...Prepare and Live life to the fullest. It's in God's hands.

quinnie wrote on Sep 4, 2007 9:29 AM:that was fun. its been a while since i felt a good rumbler.

Observer_1 wrote on Sep 5, 2007 1:25 PM:TO What! at Sep 3, 7:12 PM. I stand by my posts including the "Hayward Fault is loaded and ready to spring" at Sep 3, 2:32 AM. A few years ago the earthquake scientists predicted the Hayward Fault in the area of Berkeley and Hayward and nearby had a 67% chance of having a big one 6.9 or greater within 30 years. That was sufficient for UC Berkeley to identify a large number of building which would not survive. Because of that and other experiences the state made requirements for hospitals all over the state to withstand larger earthquakes. All police and fire departments in the San Francisco Bay area bay did more planning on how to deal with major disasters. Even Riverside county has equiped an emergency operations hq in heavily reinforced concrete facilities. New housing built in Hollister is built with concrete columns going down 10 feet into the ground all along the house foundations. It is known there will be a number of earthquakes there every year, and probably a stronger one from time to time. All cities from San Jose to San Francisco know there will be asignificant quake causing damage every few years, and a larger one with a lot of damage periodically such as 1906 and 1989. They also have measurement devices that casn tell when the strain is building up. Many sensors record the dozens of small quakes every week there. Som epet owners claim thier pest act strange for a day or so before quakes. And some pets show strong reactions shortly before. The researchers have set up a special study group for pet owners to report before the quake whenever their pets show these signs.

Temblor Man wrote on Sep 5, 2007 4:02 PM:Let's hope these current small releases of seismic energy continue to mitigate one large release. As I said, it's your choice how you want to handle the odds that we may be sitting on the next one. Just don't come crying if the odds beat you. We're getting enough of that right now from the jokers who thought they could beat the odds of the housing market going in the toilet.

What? wrote on Sep 5, 2007 4:23 PM:67% chance over a thirty year span? Now theres some precise prognostication. I'm done here. Been fun.

johnson1 wrote on Sep 12, 2007 1:05 PM:if the check the USGS website it gives you a map of the San Andreas Fault line, and on the line there are red dots indicating seismic activity along the line up to San Francisco, On the Line there is a bend of the fault where no activity is happening AT ALL. of course this worries seismologist. Meaning there is a building of energy in this area. This area just so happens to be LOS ANGELES! check it out!