Create a master map for next fires
By: JIM FASSETT - commentary | ∞
As a resident of La Costa, I have been tuned in to the San Diego TV stations for many hours during the past several days. Were it not for an abrupt shift in the wind direction in the La Costa fires in 1995, our house, with its wood-shake roof (replaced soon thereafter with a fireproof roof) surrounded by tall pine trees, might have suffered the same fate that more than 1,000 homes in San Diego County have suffered in the past few days. Four years ago in the Cedar fire east of San Diego, nearly 5,000 structures were destroyed and 15 people died as a result of that fire.
The totals may not be in for several days in the current San Diego County fires. Based on recent history, it seems likely that similar fires are likely to flare up again in a few years. We do not yet have the technology to prevent these kinds of disasters, nor are we likely to develop that technology, if it is even possible, for many years. But what we can do is use the technology we have to reduce the loss of life and destruction of property to a minimum.
I answered two "reverse 911" phone calls from the city of Carlsbad warning me of the "voluntary evacuation" status of my neighborhood. Whoever developed this reverse 911 phone system should be applauded for their foresight. We must use this kind of currently available and emerging technology to deliver critical information to those in need in a crisis.
Based on the assumption that most residents of the affected areas will continue to rely primarily on their TV screens rather than their computers, telephones or other means to gather information, I would suggest the following ideas to those organizations who deal with disaster preparedness in San Diego:
1. Each of the San Diego TV stations should be assigned specific geographic areas for their coverage so that residents of those areas do not have to scan through half a dozen channels hoping to pick up the vital information that could make the difference between saving or losing their homes and/or their lives.
2. A master computer map (broken down into several geographic areas similar to those of the TV stations) should be created, updated and broadcast by the TV stations covering their respective areas. As it becomes available, new data would be entered into the map with the latest GPS positions for new hot spots, wind speed and direction, air temperatures, important trends in these data, etc. Live, dynamic computer maps of this sort tailored to this kind of emergency situation are well within the current technology.
3. The master computer map must be created with all the critical data generated, verified and implemented by professionals in the appropriate areas. It is not realistic to expect TV news staffs to meet the vital need for accurate information to make life or death decisions for millions of people throughout San Diego County by broadcasting anecdotal stories from traumatized homeowners and long-winded speeches by politicians about all the things they are doing to fix the problem.
Carlsbad resident Jim Fassett packed to leave but did not evacuate his family from their La Costa home.
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Good Plan wrote on Oct 26, 2007 9:51 AM:Jim has a great idea. Mybe we could even enlist county-wide volunteers to input GPS coordinates for each home (during a non-fire period)so that very detailed information could be given. I really like Jim's idea of assigning each TV station a specific geographic area, so that we can turn to a certain station to get the inof we need. From the stations' standpoint, this might actually be better, as it could enable them to still air some commercials.
GFN wrote on Oct 26, 2007 10:58 AM:This is terrific. Too often you have TV news readers out in areas they are not familiar with talking about a subject they know little about. Then you have 5-8 different TV stations all chasing their tails trying to be relavent. Give each one an area; have them train their staff about their area and the subject, and then we can focus on the one that affects us.
ObjectiveObserver wrote on Oct 27, 2007 12:00 AM:Additional point: we were all warned about the dry winds ahead of time. So perhaps instead of mapping out where the next fires could be, how about some "smart" activities to curb fires before they start? For instance ... city wide dynamic weather response activities such as designated large-perimeter residential zone perimeter soaking with recycled water, managed by a well staffed municipal group. In this day and age, preemptive responses are more than possible. Someone with a decent management mind can run this sort of intermittent operation, and handle a myriad of other admin tasks at less critical times. GPS can be used to designate the soak zones based on mapped weather conditions, and this whole thing can be run from an office. Sort of like a remote controlled watering system we have in some homes, just a tad more advanced, longer wires, and with a dynamic feedback system to head off the fire paths. Very doable in contemporary times, ay?
Walt wrote on Oct 27, 2007 9:51 AM:Kudos to the orderly, civil, professional response to the tragic wildfires. There is always room for improvement. But suppose San Diego didn’t have to contend with out of control wildfires in the first place? About 35 years ago the science and engineering company responsible for technical and concept aspects of ballistic missiles, and space systems investigated usefulness of emerging military technology to combat wildfires. A fire in the local mountains had, after four days, reached San Bernardino and destroyed about 200 homes. Satellite and airborne instruments even then could quickly and accurately detect and locate an emerging fire. A massive and accurate response with fire retardant is needed before fire lines get out of hand. Guided missiles could do this under all weather conditions and nighttime, but were expensive. Liquid retardant pellets were invented to improve aerial delivery accuracy and patterns. Command centers and communications needed to be operating and trained before the “battle” begins to coordinate activities and organize the information being collected. Unfortunately, while the ability to put down fires in very early stages was probable in all but the most severe weather, federal leadership was unwilling to approve $100 million or so that would be needed for development. Result was only small improvements were accomplished in aid to airborne infrared detectors, and fast acting command centers. More recently rapid and precise overhead detection has improved, and unmanned remotely controlled “drones” show potential for night and all weather flights needed for the massive rapid response with retardant. With GPS navigation, and accurate terrain mapping, lower altitude more effective retardant delivery is feasible without risk to flight crews. Several $100’s of millions losses have been suffered over the years. An estimated $ trillion in the past few days and four years ago locally. Isn’t it time, in cooperation with military development experts, to upgrade the 35 year old evidence provided by The Aerospace Corp, and invest in the insurance to prevent repeats?
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