Santa Anas to return today
By: DAVE DOWNEY - Staff Writer
Scientists, forecasters say fire threat less; region braces for worst | ∞
Payette National Forest Service firefighters Brian Carpenter, Nicholas Bohnstedt and Morgan Neserth play hakey sack while waiting their next assignment out of Kit Carson Park on Thursday.
DON BOOMER Staff Photographer
Order a copy of this photo
Visit our Photo Gallery
The dreaded Santa Ana winds that fanned last week's wildfires are expected to return tonight.
But it's less likely that another wave of wildfires will roll across the landscape this weekend, forecasters and scientists said, because much of the dead wood in the backcountry has been consumed, and what's coming is a milder Santa Ana.
Gusts are predicted to peak at 40 mph instead of hitting 80 mph and higher, as they did last week, said Philip Gonsalves, a forecaster for the National Weather Service in Rancho Bernardo.
And the hot, dry winds that blow in from the desert won't last as long or cover as wide an area.
"Compared to what we just experienced, it will seem like little or nothing," Gonsalves said. "It is much, much weaker."
The fierce winds aren't even expected to reach the North County coast.
"It's very likely that people near the coast will just get a nice, warm, sunny and relatively dry day," Gonsalves said. "All Santa Anas are not created equal," Gonsalves said. "Like a lot of other weather phenomena, they cover a whole range of intensity."
Desert areas also should stay calm. Winds will be confined to the mountains and inland valleys, he said.
Taking no chances
In areas affected by the Santa Anas, Gonsalves said, easterly winds will average 15 mph to 25 mph. The Santa Anas are expected to last about 24 hours, a far cry from the protracted, four-day winds last week. The strongest gusts are expected to hit between 6 a.m. and noon Saturday.
Despite the forecast, jittery state officials weren't taking any chances. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, also known as CalFire, California National Guard and Office of Emergency Services to prepare.
CalFire kept firefighting helicopters and airplanes at airports in Ramona, Hemet and elsewhere in Southern California, state officials said. In addition, the National Guard put 1,500 guardsmen on alert and geared up to fly six of its own helicopters.
In addition, the U.S. Forest Service had 111 fire engines, 14 air tankers and eight helicopter tankers ready to respond, said Ed Hollenshead, the agency's Pacific Southwest regional director for fire and aviation.
"By holding firefighters and aircraft in Southern California through the weekend, I am confident we will be able to immediately respond to any new fire starts and we can ensure fires remain contained during the expected winds," Hollenshead said.
Two fires were still burning in Southern California on Friday ---- the 50,000-acre Poomacha fire in the Palomar Mountain area and the 28,000-acre Santiago fire in Orange County. The San Diego County fires have scorched 370,000 acres ---- a little less than the record 2003 total of 400,000 acres ---- and have destroyed 1,685 homes.
"The flip side of this is that you've burned off the fuels and solved the problem for the moment," said Rich Minnich, a UC Riverside geography professor and expert on fire ecology.
As a result, there is less of a chance that a third wave of wildfires will sweep the region, Minnich said.
Ripe for burning
But that is not to say there aren't thick, old stands of chaparral still out there that are ripe for burning, he said. Minnich said the Hot Springs Mountain area east of Warner Springs, the eastern slopes of Palomar Mountain, the hills west of Temecula and Murrieta, sections of Interstate 15 north of Escondido and a stretch of Interstate 8 east of Descanso are examples.
"Even Laguna Mountain is starting to get into prime time," Minnich said, referring to an area that has regrown considerably since burning in the 175,000-acre Laguna fire of September 1970.
However, Rick Halsey, director of the California Chaparral Institute in Escondido and an expert on Southern California's native plant communities, said Laguna is less of a threat because the Forest Service regularly thins out vegetation there.
Cleveland National Forest fire Chief Rich Hawkins said the recent burning has reduced the risk of a cataclysmic fire.
"I doubt that we would have another Cedar fire or Witch Creek fire," Hawkins said, of the monsters that torched 273,000 acres and 198,000 acres respectively. "But there are quite a few places left where we could have a 50,000-acre fire."
And it's not just the overgrown chaparral that poses a threat.
Thick carpets of grass grow in many places, following winter rain. And Halsey said grass could permanently replace chaparral in locations that burned twice in four years. He said one-quarter of the Cedar fire and two-thirds of the Paradise fire ---- both of which occurred in 2003 ---- ended up burning again last week.
Minnich said many of the canyons that crisscross the San Diego County urban area are thick with grass and sage that don't pack as much punch as chaparral brush but fan wildfires nonetheless.
Hawkins said grass fires tend to spread faster than brush fires.
"Until we get some good rainfall we aren't going to be out of the woods because there is more of the county that hasn't burned than has," Hawkins said. "Everybody's very nervous. It's been dry now for seven out of the last eight years, and there is no rain in sight."
Contact staff writer Dave Downey at (760) 745-6611, Ext. 2623, or ddowney@nctimes.com.
More Stories
Advertisement
Sam wrote on Nov 1, 2007 9:50 PM:There is one tv station in San Diego with a weatherman who likes to call it 'Sort Of A Santa Ana' or SOSA. We just had more than a few houses burn down and members of the media laugh, and dance on tv, and make light of the weather.
EthnicStudent wrote on Nov 1, 2007 10:10 PM:A weak Santa Ana is what they called the last one...
Reardon wrote on Nov 1, 2007 10:24 PM:Sam: I am not at all certain that particular "weatherman" could pass a hair follicle test. I just hope visitors to our area do not surf across him on the TV...it makes our community look childish. Further, he is often wrong in his predictions, never apologizes for error -- just goes blithely along...
O'side Canyon-rim resident wrote on Nov 2, 2007 7:29 AM:You all have the right to freedom of speech and have exercised it here. You also have the right to change your tv station if you do not prefer to watch a particular channel. John Coleman makes even the most complex weather patterns easily understandable with his enthusiastic discussions. He invented the Weather Channel and is one of the premier experts in his field. If you want to use the "hair follicle test" watch Loren Nancarrow (who hides what few follicles he has remainig under a baseball hat most of the time) discuss how to eliminate snails from your compost pile, change the station. It's that easy.
Raindancer wrote on Nov 2, 2007 8:12 AM:Here's my comment.....why is it that all the weathermen and newscasters complain when there's a possibility that we might get rain? I've heard it time and again. It goes like this.... "sorry folks but it looks like we may be in for some rain this weekend and it might mess up any plans you may have made....but hopefully it won't last long" THAT'S WHAT I DON'T LIKE TO HEAR. WE NEED RAIN AND IT SHOULD BE WELCOMED BY EVERYONE.
Brandon wrote on Nov 2, 2007 8:53 AM:Raindancer... No one wants rain because its San Diego...It does not rain in San Diego, no one plans on it and it ruins everyones day when it happens. People just need to stop complaining when it rains though. Also its a shame that it takes disasters like this for people to open their eyes and realize the climate, location and natural hazards in which they live! Fires have raged here since the beginning this is nothing new. I agree with you thoug, for people who live in those "untouched" areas, I'd pull out your tribal regalia and start a rain dance!
toni wrote on Nov 2, 2007 9:08 AM:the channel everyone is mentioning coudn't even broadcast durning the fires. They were affected, I do not think the silly little weatherman would everlaugh at anyones' misery, he is only trying to relieve the fear of the upcoming winds with the firestorms still smoldering some still burning, he makes no laugh at the suffering. so you really think? In your heart?
Alf wrote on Nov 2, 2007 9:15 AM:Well, "Raindancer" at 8:12AM, whether plans are "ruined" is one thing, the fact is that most California drivers do not drive worth a tinker's damn. They don't slow down or leave more than enough room between them and the car in front of them when it rains. What's that called, boys and girls? A recipe for accidents. The drivers and the news media blame the rain, not the ignorant, stupid drivers who do not drive according to road conditions. Regards, Alf.
Reardon wrote on Nov 2, 2007 9:52 AM:Yes, Coleman started the Weather Channel -- and he had a great TV career before that -- and he is a professional. During the actual fire reporting he was sane and informative, It is a shtick that he has that is annoying, and my TV immediately shifts to Ch. 6 and Aloha Taylor when Coleman comes on. Coleman is fingernails on a blackboard to me, but sometimes I am not near my mute button when he "breeee....eeeez" -- if I want entertainment I will go to the comedy channel. I want the weather! He would be great on a children’s show -- but not on the news. His grinning dance must entertain some people because they continue to watch. Second childhood!
To Toni wrote on Nov 2, 2007 10:18 AM:I'm not sure where you are, but we watched nothing but that channel during the entire duration of the fires. They were some of the best coverage around and I only saw them go down for a couple of seconds once unless something happened while we were asleep.
Sam wrote on Nov 2, 2007 10:56 AM:Let's hope the firebugs stay home this weekend, but all it takes is one.
gb wrote on Nov 2, 2007 1:19 PM:Leave the weatherman alone, geesh. He obivously loves his job. I'm sure every single one of us people are silly at our jobs one way or another. Like the people say if don't like change the channel its that easy. geesh!
When wondering, I always go to Coleman wrote on Nov 2, 2007 2:24 PM:Having lived in San Diego for 50 years, I have seen many weatherman come and go. What I have learned over the years is that John Coleman, being an actual meteorologist, is the best at predicting the weather. For instance when all of the other weather persons are saying we are going to get hit hard by a storm, John Coleman will look at his maps and will then say he doesn't see the storm hitting SD. And guess what, he is almost always right! I look to him when planning an outdoor activity!! Thanks John!!
Amateur weather fan wrote on Nov 2, 2007 2:45 PM:Those of you complaining that John Coleman is wrong alot obviously don't know what you're talking about. His temperature and rainfall predictions are most often right on, and San Diego area weather is notoriously difficult to predict. Matt Baylow, Loren Nancarrow and the rest are total hacks compared to JC. yes, his schtick gets a bit grating at times but he is usually composed and professional, especially during times like fires/high winds.
WENDLIN wrote on Nov 2, 2007 3:02 PM:JOHN COLEMAN LOVES DOING WHAT HE DOES, AND HE PUTS HIS HEART INTO EVERY NEWSCAST. THAT IS WHY HE IS SO ACCURATE. BESIDES HE IS GREAT TO WATCH.
Concerned-1 wrote on Nov 2, 2007 4:02 PM:The name of the wind is Santana, or Devil Wind. Santa Ana is a city in Orange County. This is a misnomer started in the '50s when people started moving to Orange County. The Santana winds would whip through the Santa Ana Canyon and blow havoc on Orange County.
Karl wrote on Nov 2, 2007 5:00 PM:What the heck are you folks on this blog talking about and who cares? I found the news coverage very informative. Again what the heck are you neons talking about.
Reardon wrote on Nov 2, 2007 6:39 PM:Some of you perhaps do not recall that very recent "first winter storm" that Coleman Kyroned on the news for days in bold-face print -- TWO INCHES of rain predicted. This was the serious Coleman...complete with stern face and no circus clown act. We got ZERO! Yes, other stations did something similar, but without the dire warnings and Kyron print! Being a meteorologist apparently didn't help a bit!
KM wrote on Nov 2, 2007 7:18 PM:Hey SAM, lighten up francise! and to ethnic man, They ALL predicted a major santa ana event last week. Wake up!
First name only. Comments including last names, contact addresses, e-mail addresses or phone numbers will be deleted. Attempts to misrepresent your identity or impersonate any person will not be approved. All comments are screened before they appear online, so please keep them brief. Comments reflect the views of those commenting and not necessarily those of the North County Times or its staff writers. Click here to view additional comment policies.
Today's Stories
Advertisement