State releases meager water supply estimate

By: GIG CONAUGHTON - Staff Writer
More reliable predictions due in February, but early guess is dry winter | Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:10 PM PST ∞

State officials said Monday that Southern California's life-sustaining supplies of Northern California water are expected to cover just 25 percent of demand in 2008, far less than the 60 percent allocation level the region got this year.

However, officials said that the estimate could improve dramatically by early next year, after winter rains and snow actually fall and can be measured in Northern California and the Sierra Nevada.

In fact, in any other year, the state's initial allocation wouldn't have drawn any attention at all, because it comes too early to be considered reliable.

That's because the initial prediction is made mainly by looking at historical weather patterns and guessing that they will be repeated -- something that does not always occur.

For example, initial Northern California supply estimates were even more bleak in 2003, when the state predicted a 20 percent allocation. But the eventual supplies actually came closer to 90 percent, state officials said Monday.

But all water news is being scrutinized this year because the state is facing its worst water-supply shortages since the last great multi-year drought that occurred from 1987 to 1991.

Semi-arid Southern California's two main imported water sources are being challenged.

The Colorado River, which is replenished by Rocky Mountain snow packs and which delivers water to seven western states including California, is now in its eighth year of drought.

Meanwhile, in September, a federal judge issued an "unprecedented" environmental ruling that will cut back use of the powerful pumps that send Northern California south in the State Water Project in order to protect an endangered fish.

And the Metropolitan Water District, Southern California's main water supplier, said that Northern California water made up two-thirds of the region's imported water supplies this year.

Consequently, when state officials announced their initial low allocation estimate Monday, two large associations, the Association of California Water Agencies and the State Water Contractors, issued press releases saying it was further proof that the state was facing a crisis.

The association is a lobbying and information group that represents 450 plus water agencies around the state. The contractors group represents 27 large agencies in Northern, Southern and Central California that buy water from the State Water Project -- a series of 600 miles of reservoirs, dams, pipelines and pumping stations that deliver Northern California water south.

Jennifer Persike, a spokeswoman for the association, said, "It's been a long time since it (initial allocation estimate) has been this low."

However, many water officials, including some from the association and contractors group, downplayed the initial estimate, and agreed that it was too early to be worried about the initial prediction.

"This (low estimate) was expected given the current dry conditions," said Metropolitan spokesman Bob Muir. "The initial allocation's history has been based on a conservative estimate that typically increases over the year based on winter storms."

Tracy Pettit, chief of the state Department of Water Resources' forecasting division, said the first meaningful allocation estimates will come in February -- when state crews measure the first snow pack levels.

Meanwhile, officials from the San Diego County Water Authority said the publicity surrounding the low initial estimate would serve a purpose -- to remind people that they should conserve water if they can.

Metropolitan, Water Authority, and local agencies have started campaigns to urge conservation, saying that cutting water use now could leave more precious stored water available to offset supply shortages in 2008, 2009 and beyond.

-- Contact staff writer Gig Conaughton at (760) 739-6696 or gconaughton@nctimes.com.

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