2007 not a good year for water supplies

By: GIG CONAUGHTON - Staff Writer
Droughts, endangered fish usher in uncertainty | Thursday, December 27, 2007 10:58 PM PST ∞

Nobody has worried this much about water in Southern California since 1991, when the 1987-92 drought prompted the state's last mandatory water rationing.

When 2007 began, Southern California water officials were pretty comfortable -- even though the Colorado River, which had long been the bedrock of imported water for this rain-starved region, was in its eighth year of drought.

After all, new reservoirs, dams and pipelines built after the 1987-92 drought were filled with years worth of stored water. And the State Water Project that delivers Northern California rainfall and snowmelt had been reliable ---- the new bedrock of Southern California's supply.

But then 2007 hit, and now everybody is worried.

Scientists believe that the eight-year Colorado River drought could last a lot longer than once thought.

The governor called a special session to talk about building more dams and reservoirs -- and came up empty.

The year's biggest water news, however, was created by a tiny fish.

First state, then federal, judges said the new "bedrock" State Water Project supplies must be cut to save an endangered fish, the delta smelt.

For now, water officials don't think water rationing will return in 2008 despite the pressures on the region's two main sources of imported water. Again, stores of water supplies will soften potential cutbacks.

But the effects of the current pressures will be felt.

Already, farmers and growers have been given mandatory 30 percent water cuts for 2008.

That will put some San Diego County growers and farmers out of business as they cut back their production by approximately one-third, water and farming officials have predicted.

The cuts are coming to growers who signed contracts to buy water at discounted rates in exchange for being the first to swallow cuts in dry times.

Water agencies across the state are amplifying calls for people to voluntarily cut water use by taking shorter showers, watering lawns and gardens less and other means.

Looking ahead, Southern Californians will have to wait to see if relief comes.

Will Mother Nature end the Colorado River's drought?

Can the state keep Northern California water flowing south through the fragile Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, the heart of the State Water Project?

"I think over the next several years, we're facing water supply uncertainty," said Gordon Hess, San Diego County Water Authority spokesman.

Tree rings

Water officials got their first unwelcome news in February.

The Colorado River's current eight-year drought is the longest in the 101 years of record-keeping, and water officials have been keeping their fingers crossed that it would soon end.

But in February, a panel of National Academy of Science scientists said tree ring studies showed the river had suffered decadelong droughts in previous centuries.

A University of Arizona study three months later said the river had endured a 60-year drought in the 1100s.

For decades, the Colorado River had been Southern California's biggest source of imported water.

The state Legislature actually formed Southern California's main water supplier -- the Metropolitan Water District that serves nearly 18 million people in six counties ---- in 1928 to build the Colorado River Aqueduct.

Metropolitan shifted most of its imported supply dependence to the State Water Project in 2003, when California signed a deal with other Western states and agreed to stop "overusing" the river.

As 2007 came to an end, California, Nevada and Arizona officials signed the Colorado River's first drought-allocation plan. The deal virtually guaranteed that Southern Californians would not see their Colorado River supplies cut through 2026.

But the academy's report continued to cast a shadow, saying that future droughts on the river could be longer and more severe because of global warming.

Meanwhile, the region's shift in reliance from the Colorado River to the State Water Project also ran into trouble.

Delta smelt

That trouble came in the form of the 2- to 3-inch Delta smelt.

In March, a superior court judge said the state must shut down the massive pumps in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta within 60 days to save the smelt, an endangered fish that was being killed in part by the pumps.

The delta is the heart of the State Water Project that delivers Sierra snowmelt and Northern California rainfall to the rest of the state.

The judge's order sent shock waves through California water agencies.

They were used to having to juggle droughts -- when the rains and snows that create imported water supplies dry up for short periods.

But suddenly, they were faced with the realization that the courts -- and environmental challenges -- could shut down water supplies even if rain and snow were plentiful.

The superior court judge eventually halted his shutdown order on appeal, but his ruling was an omen of further trouble.

In May, the state voluntarily shut down the delta pumps for 10 days to protect the smelt.

Then came the big blow.

In August, a federal court judged ruled that delta pumping would have to be cut in 2008.

Southern California got all of its water allocations this year. But Metropolitan and state water officials predicted that the region's 2008 Northern California supplies could be slashed by 30 percent.

Metropolitan General Manager Jeff Kightlinger said as 2007 ended that Southern California residents were going to have to find more ways to cut their water use ---- and stretch stored supplies ---- than ever before.

Regional water officials undoubtedly saw potential State Water Project trouble on the horizon, even if they did not see the delta smelt rulings coming.

The Colorado River, which has huge storage reservoirs, is still delivering full water supplies even after eight years of drought. But the State Water Project, with smaller reservoirs and less reliable snowpacks, has been notoriously fickle. It can be flush with water one year, and nearly empty the next. Water officials have also worried since Hurricane Katrina destroyed much of the Gulf Coast that hundreds of man-made levees in the delta could crumble and cut off Southern California's water supplies in an earthquake or other disaster.

Bright spots

There were bright spots in Southern California's water-supply saga in 2007. One of them occurred in San Diego County.

In November, California Coastal Commissioners granted conditional approval to a long-discussed plant that would turn seawater off Carlsbad's coast into "drought-proof" drinking water. The commission did so even though its own staff said there were still too many environmental questions about the plant to recommend approval.

The conditional approval could eventually allow the plant to churn out 50 million gallons of drinking water a day by 2010.

Meanwhile, agencies like Metropolitan and San Diego's Water Authority continued to try to work deals to buy water from farmers in Northern California ---- new supplies that could help offset shortages.

However, Southern California water officials said the region's water supplies would likely be threatened until the delta and State Water Project was fixed.

Metropolitan and San Diego officials said the only way to do that was to build a canal through or around the delta to separate fish and environmental worries from the state's water supplies.

The idea is not new. Statewide voters shot down a "peripheral canal" proposal in 1982.

Roger Patterson, Metropolitan assistant manager, said, "We're certainly in a period of uncertainty. But, we need to get a decision to make the fixes that need to be made in the delta, so that we know what the end point of this uncertainty is."

Contact staff writer Gig Conaughton at (760) 739-6696 or gconaughton@nctimes.com.

2007 -- A year of water uncertainty

Jan. 17, 2007: State water officials get unhappy news when the highly invasive Quagga mussel is discovered in Lake Mead, one of the main reservoirs of the Colorado River. The discovery doesn't affect water supplies, but could eventually cost ratepayers billions in annual cleanup costs.

Feb. 13, 2007: Southern California's main water supplier, the Metropolitan Water District, tentatively approves its largest rate increase in more than a decade ---- an action it cements in April. The agency blames the increase, which could amount to $1.50 a month for homeowners, on two factors: increasing electricity costs from pumping water; and increasing costs of treating water and making it drinkable.

Feb. 20, 2007: The National Academy of Sciences says tree-ring studies show Colorado River droughts have lasted longer than the current eight-year drought.

March 22, 2007: A Superior Court judge moves to shut down the massive pumps in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta to protect an endangered fish, the delta smelt. The shutdown would cut State Water Project deliveries that make up two-thirds of Southern California's imported water supplies.The judge halts the ruling on appeal. But it foreshadows more trouble.

March 28, 2007: State officials announce that the Sierra mountain snow packs that sustain much of the state's water supplies were at their lowest levels in a decade.

May 31, 2007: California's Department of Water Resources shuts down the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta pumps for 10 days to protect the smelt.

June 12, 2007: The Metropolitan Water District, Southern California's main water supplier, votes to spend $6.3 million on a marketing campaign asking people to cut their water use. The $6.3 million quadruples Metropolitan's previous "conservation" budget. San Diego County Water Authority officials say they plan to start a campaign to ask people to cut their use by 20 gallons a day.

June 20, 2007: An environmental group, the Natural Resources Defense Council, requests an injunction to shut down the State Water Project pumps again, shortly after the state ended its 10-day shutdown. A judge rejects the request.

June 25, 2007: Farmers across North County and their water suppliers said they are beginning to prepare for 30 percent water cuts that could come in 2008. One water official says the cuts could be the beginning of a "long-term shift" in North County's water resources.

July 10, 2007: Metropolitan board members vote to offer ratepayers financial incentives to buy synthetic turf.

Aug. 29, 2007: A new court ruling strikes at State Water Project supplies. This time, a federal court judge says that the Sacramento-San Joaquin pumps will have to be cut back in 2008 in order to protect the endangered Delta smelt. Metropolitan says the ruling could cut its Northern California imported supplies by 30 percent.

Sept. 4, 2007: Metropolitan says it is racing to create an emergency plan to divvy up water supplies among its customers -- including San Diego County ---- if water shortages hit in 2008.

Sept.11, 2007: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger convenes a special legislative session to try to fix the state's water problems before they reach crisis level. The governor hopes to forge a ballot measure for voters to approve new dams and reservoirs. But he and legislators cannot agree on a plan.

Sept. 11, 2007: Metropolitan says any state action to "fix" the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta should build a $3 billion to $4 billion canal through, or around, the delta to separate water supplies and smelt. The idea is similar to "peripheral canal" that statewide voters rejected in 1982.

Sept. 17, 2007: The Association of California Water Agencies starts an eight-week, $6 million to $9 million TV ad campaign about the state's looming water crisis. Thirty-second spots feature pictures of trickling streams, vast reservoirs, parched soil, failed levees and flooded communities.

Sept. 27, 2007: San Diego County Water Authority votes to start talks to buy water from Butte County farmers.

Oct. 8, 2007: Metropolitan officially notifies farmers that they'll get 30 percent water cuts starting Jan. 1.

Nov. 8, 2007: Congress overrides President Bush's veto of a $23 billion water bill that contains $106 million to stabilize levees in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta. It marks first the override in Bush's seven-year-old presidency.

Nov. 20, 2007: Metropolitan moves to buy additional water from Central California farmers and Yuba County to offset water shortages in 2008.

Dec. 13, 2007: Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne signs Colorado River drought plan that would safeguard California's supplies through 2026.