Local wrote on Jan 2, 2008 4:34 AM:I bought my property in the summer of '88 for $260.000. It was a 'fixer.' Records show that it was purchased in '84 for $280.000. It's a good thing I like roller coasters. In the meantime it's a really cool place to live! LOL!

when wrote on Jan 2, 2008 6:59 AM:NAR has exposed themselves a serious cheerleaders not purveyors of thoughtful analysis.

Chris wrote on Jan 2, 2008 7:32 AM:What are the qualifications of Mr. Bellante that allows him to suggest that the market will not rebound for up to 4-5 years? Mr. Welsh would obviously like to see people invest in assets other than real estate. Let's keep the reporting to qualified experts not those sharing unqualified opinions for their personal gain.

christimarie wrote on Jan 2, 2008 8:13 AM:Bellante is irresponsible. I don't live in San Elijo, but no way are people there going to sell their homes for 25% less. Bellante is giving his clients bad advice. His statements feed the problem. If buyers don't buy because they have listened to him, who is causing the problem?

Ways to go wrote on Jan 2, 2008 10:08 AM:New home builders will be lowering their prices to rid themselves of excess inventory,there will be more foreclosures on existing homes, banks will be selling foreclosures below market values, money and loans are more difficult to get, stagflation is a real threat considering all the debt this country has run up the past few years, and then will there be a recession. If people start losing jobs, home values will continue to go down. We could have a long way to go before we hit a flattening of the housing market (several months of flat sales). Then things might pick up. There may be many false signals in house purchasing during the Spring/Summer buying season,but like all things, it is really about money. With Stagflation, recession possible, falling dollar, no U.S. savings, huge government debt, rising commodities, education costs, health care etc. it is hard to be an optimist.

SeriousBuyer wrote on Jan 2, 2008 10:52 AM:We have been here before and we will be here again. Everybody needs a place to live and SD is a place where people want to live, so the real estate market is strong long term. I am pleased for this downturn as it removes speculators, poor financial service providers, and amateur brokers from the market.

It is what it is wrote on Jan 2, 2008 11:17 AM:Deal with it, prices are going to fall do to the fact buyers can no longer obtain irrisponsible loans, it wasn`t real, the market went up way to fast & probably will go back down to 03-04 prices, giving the smart responsible buyers a chance.

Mack truck wrote on Jan 2, 2008 12:07 PM:Mr. Bellante is probably being optimistic in thinking it will only be 4-5 years before the mortgage crisis is done. The same thing happened in Japan in the 90s--they still haven't fully recovered.
ALso, layoffs are starting in the financial industry. It's gonna be a loooong recovery.

soothsayer wrote on Jan 2, 2008 1:16 PM:Most of us have probably heard the old joke about economists: Ask 10 economists for a forecast and you'll get 11 different answers. Problem is, it's not a joke. And the one who guesses right will be hailed as a great seer whose opinions are forevermore elevated above the masses'.

What? wrote on Jan 2, 2008 1:18 PM:It wasn't that long ago that I was reading about double digit inflation in San Diego Real Estate. Now it is going down. So what? It will level off and start going back up. The only people who will suffer are the ones who bought more than they could afford and the banks that loaned them more than they could pay back. The speculators have either sold off and profited or will rent their properties until the market goes back up. The experts predicting what the economy is going to do is a joke. Short term they are ok, same long term. In the middle time frame they are just guessing. They are like religous people, you can find one to vouch for any theory you like.

Cal Ray is Right wrote on Jan 2, 2008 1:49 PM:Chris & Cristimarie, you attack Mr. Bellante's credibility, but you don't question the NAR's credibility? The NAR have been wrong 13 straight months with their predictions and you question Mr. Bellante's analysis? Give me a brake!!! This market is crashing fast and if you don't believe me, look at inventory and then look at prices. Figure out how many people can afford those 20,000 plus homes in inventory at 500k without the "Funny Financing."

The banks are taking a beating and the game is over. A 25% drop is conservative in my opinion, but what do I know? There are homes in Montemar, a subdivision of Arrowwood in Oceanside, CA. They were selling upwards 1 million to 1.2 million. You can get one now for about $659,000. That’s a loss of at least 34%!!!

You’re questioning the wrong person’s credentials. Try questioning the NAR with their, “It’s a Great Time to Buy” B.S. It’s a lousy time to buy, and families are being ruined everyday listening to this garbage.

FTM wrote on Jan 2, 2008 1:56 PM:Mr. Bellante's theory only holds water if people want to sell thier homes. In most of North County San Diego most people do NOT want to sell thier homes. It does not matter what the market says my house is worth, it's what it's going to cost you to get me to MOVE! And I can tell you, it would take a ludicris amount of money to get me to move from my north county home. I'm staying right where I am.

Vista Resident wrote on Jan 2, 2008 1:56 PM:We just lost a large inventory of homes in San Diego county. So, demand should outstrip supply here for awhile which sends house prices up. Plus, it's a GREAT place to live. Plus, the dollar is dropping fast as China and other foreigner countries gather up our cash and we print more. These foreigners are slowly investing in US assets rather than just holding on to cash. That should send house prices up.

try this wrote on Jan 2, 2008 3:04 PM:i wouldn't believe anything a realtor says. the way it works is that homes get repoed. and they sit a long while until the lender tires of it all and then finally takes an offer and sues the defaulted owner for a deficiency. yes, if you wait long enough and make some super low offers eventually one is accepted. this is when good credit,a little cash and a bold approach pays off.

KirkH wrote on Jan 2, 2008 3:21 PM:I stopped trying to convince people that things are about to get ugly. People who can't do the math (inventory, affordability) will get burned which will leave people who can do math with money. That's a good thing in the long run.

Contrarian wrote on Jan 2, 2008 3:28 PM:I'll be buying as soon as real estate is no longer a topic of conversation and nobody cares about it anymore. Bear markets end when all hope is gone and despair sets in -- there is still too much optimism that a bottom in the market is just around the corner.

Joseph wrote on Jan 2, 2008 4:02 PM:christimarie wrote

" Bellante is irresponsible. I don't live in San Elijo, but no way are people there going to sell their homes for 25% less. Bellante is giving his clients bad advice. His statements feed the problem..."

Maybe Christimarie you will learn one day economics 101. But I doubt it. Bellante is probably optimistic. If CA goes into a recession and many jobs are lost the problem will get worse. Those that say "my house price does not go down if I don't sell it" are confused at best and foolish. The value will go down. It is only your decision if you want to sell.

Bottom line I advise is if you want to buy get at least 15% off the lowest price offered. Prices were way over priced. christimarie is one of those that thinks real estate prices can only go up at twice the inflation rate. I suggest you get a job shinning Yun's shoes.

bigwavedave wrote on Jan 2, 2008 4:11 PM:Buy on the bad news, Sell on the good news.

John E wrote on Jan 2, 2008 4:14 PM:First everyone panics because of the affordability "crisis," then because prices are falling due to natural market pressures, helping to address the situation. We were overdue for a correction, well past our normal 10-year cycle, and thus probably have farther to fall this time than last. Long-term investors and homeowners who did not stupidly overextend themselves will be fine.

Pappy wrote on Jan 2, 2008 4:40 PM:To SeriousBuyer – I’d like to add one more comment to your comments. No, wait. I’d like to elaborate on one of your comments. No, wait. One thing you need to take into consideration is - . No, wait… Ah heck SeriousBuyer, well said.

Dear Contrarian wrote on Jan 2, 2008 4:58 PM:This isn't the stock market. The vast majority of people will ride this wave with no worry. You have to live some where after all...

karl wrote on Jan 2, 2008 6:13 PM:First, the housing correction.

Now, it's true that we're having a very large housing correction. It may be the sharpest fall-off in housing starts as a percentage of the prior peak that there's ever been in the postwar era.

But housing is only about 5 percent of the economy at most. If it falls by half or a third, that's a big drop. In an economy like ours, though, where there was a severe labor shortage before the housing correction, the labor shortfall can be readily absorbed by other sectors, and it is.

Real unemployment has barely budged since the housing correction began more than a year ago. It will probably rise, but exports are shooting up so fast because of the weak dollar that overall unemployment may not rise by much at all. (It's currently at 4.7 percent of all workers, but barely 2 percent of full-time breadwinners.)



Second, there's the subprime "meltdown," as the papers like to call it.

This is a genuine problem. Unwary buyers were sold mortgages they couldn't pay for, and are now in trouble despite the president's new mortgage-rate-increase moratorium. And extremely unscrupulous people sold immense bundles of precarious mortgages to institutional buyers who didn't know what they were buying. In some sad cases, the investment banks that sold the mortgage bundles were selling similar instruments short even as they sold the bundles to the innocent.

That's a major moral problem, and the magnitude of loss because of defaults on the mortgages seems immense. There may have been roughly $80 billion in losses so far (before liquidation of the collateral, which will greatly reduce the losses). There may be another $150 billion of losses out there, and maybe even another $200 billion.

Those numbers seem immense, and to you and me they are. But in the context of the U.S. economy, they're not large enough to do major damage unless the Federal Reserve Board makes serious mistakes. The total bank credit in this country as of October 2007 was about $9 trillion. That doesn't count credit from other sources such as bond issuance or foreign investment, which could easily bring the total to $30 trillion or more.

A loss of $50 billion, while immense to you or me or even Bill Gates, is barely one-half of 1 percent of bank credit in the United States. It's hardly more than one-tenth of 1 percent of total available credit. Even if the loss rose to $250 billion, it wouldn't even be 1 percent of available credit. And, again, this number will be greatly reduced upon sale of the collateral and recovery by the lenders.
housing inventory is ~10.4 months and dropping. rates are dropping and over the next few months, will be down another 50-75 basis pts. Investors are already getting back into real estate market

Renter wrote on Jan 2, 2008 7:21 PM:The average SD house has lost $50,000 in 2007 and will loose another $50,000 in 2008. Oil just hit $100/barrel today. I don't see the economy picking for a long time. Glad I rent.

Realtor wrote on Jan 2, 2008 8:37 PM:There is no bubble. Now is the perfect time to buy. Call me, I will cut my commision from 3% to 2.5% and I am well worth it! You can trust me-I took math in Junior High.

Alan wrote on Jan 4, 2008 10:40 PM:An article quoting a bunch of realtors and the NAR- it's just like quoting a bunch of professional liars. You know what they're going to say: "It's a great time to buy!" The NAR are just a bunch of cheerleaders for salesmen. They've been wrong consistently for years, and yet they still get quoted in papers as though they were experts. My opinion: Real estate always goes back to the mean, which is to say the relationship between prices and salaries always reasserts itself. In this case, that means prices are going down 60%.

sdthinking wrote on Jan 5, 2008 11:17 PM:Realtors and NAR (funded by realtors) of course have to say it's time to buy. They have nothing to lose. I mean really if I lose money in a house - are they liable for it? no!

a lot of realtors are bandits, too... they pressure appraisers into approving higher and higher prices. ...

Do you think NAR is going to expel realtors who pressure appraisers? of course, not. They will probably say: none of their realtors do that. How about an investigation? They will probably say: Heck, the buyers are at fault; they should have known better.

Well, I like to be wrong - but so far, I haven't see any report blaming realtors or real estate companies!

I'll say: They should have known better than to trust the people who they rely on will collect thousands of dollars ONLY if the deal goes through.

I mean really why would realtors jeopardize a deal and lose thousands of dollars? Even if it's to prevent a fellow american from shooting himself/herself on the foot, I doubt that means much to realtors or to NAR. It's all about business and pockets of realtors.

Yes, I've read several articles that quoted NAR. Bottomline they were wrong in 2007 and I am not sure how they can be so smug to predict again for 2008, while convincing innocent americans into dangerous debt.