Winter storms bring mud, delays and ... relief

By: SARAH WILKINS - North County Times
Forecasters: Rainfall heaviest since 2005; wildfire threat lowered
| Monday, January 28, 2008 10:06 PM PST ∞

NORTH COUNTY - The storm that pummeled North County this week is part of the wettest winter seen here in three years, and forecasters said more rain is on the way.

The storm rendered several North County roads impassable, caused a rash of traffic collisions and left thousands without power. But authorities said the rain also helped ease the immediate threat of wildfire.

This season's storms had dropped 5.53 inches of rain at Lindbergh Field in San Diego as of Monday, compared to drought-like conditions that brought only 1.71 inches by that date in 2007 and 1.30 in 2006, said Stan Wasowski, forecaster for the National Weather Service. Heavy downpours brought 13.81 inches to the airport by that day in 2005, the third-wettest season since forecasters began keeping weather records in 1850.

The rainfall as of Monday is 0.33 inches above the average usually recorded at this point in the season, which is 5.20 inches, meteorologist Brandt Maxwell said.

"It's wetter, obviously, but we were expecting that," Wasowski said. "We knew it would be wetter than the last two years because if you look at records, you seldom see three dry (years) in a row."

As of Monday, forecasters recorded a total of 10.52 inches of rain in Oceanside since the start of the rainy season, which began July 1, Wasowski said. At the same time last year, the city had received only 1.84 inches, Maxwell said.

The season may have more rain in store, including a cold system that could move in toward the end of the week, forecasters said.

"February and March average over two inches" per month, Wasowski said. "So we'll see more rain in the next months ... it's not exact. There may be one (storm) that is a little longer or stronger."

The chance of rain lessens to about 20 percent today and Wednesday, with a slight chance of snow in the mountains, the weather service said. Cool, mostly sunny weather is expected to follow, though a cold Alaskan front could bring more rain by Saturday, increasing the chances of heavy showers and mountain snow, forecasters said.

Those conditions defy meteorologists' predictions. Last year, they predicted this year would bring a dry, La Nina winter that would only worsen long-standing drought conditions.

"There's a lot of factors that go on in the hemisphere," Wasowski said of the change. "With the luck of the draw, it just came up that this is going to be a wet one."

Rainfall totals as of Monday morning included 1.10 inches in Ramona, 1.03 inches at Palomar Observatory and 0.94 inches in Oceanside.

The storm caused headaches for commuters driving on rain-slicked roadways and facing delays from mudslides and flooding in some rural areas, including Highways 78 and 76, according to the California Highway Patrol. A section of Highway 78 between Ramona and Escondido swamped by a mudslide Sunday morning remained shut until 5 p.m. Monday.

Crews also shut down South Grade Road on Palomar Mountain because of a mudslide in the area burned by the Poomacha wildfire, as well as several streets in Ramona, which were briefly affected by flooding, said Bill Polick, spokesman for the county Department of Public Works.

"We're still keeping a close eye on things," Polick said.

The weather also may have caused several power outages over the weekend, affecting a total of about 11,000 customers, San Diego Gas & Electric spokeswoman Stephanie Donovan said. The total included a pair of outages in Bonsall and Borrego Springs that left more than 450 customers without service for a time on Monday.

"They're weather-related, very likely," Donovan said of the outages. "But when (crews) patrolled the line, they couldn't find anything."

The showers were good news for fire officials, who said the rain has helped to lessen immediate wildfire danger.

Fire threats are "all weather-driven," meaning that while the showers are helping now, the danger could increase if the rain were to stop suddenly, said Capt. Steve Foster, of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

"We are going to get new growth ... (but) there could be trouble within three to four weeks if it were to dry out," he said. "But right now, this is perfect. We're doing real good."

Contact staff writer Sarah Wilkins at (760) 740-3524 or swilkins@nctimes.com.