Riverside County foreclosure rate soars

By: ZACH FOX - Staff Writer | Tuesday, January 29, 2008 10:23 PM PST ∞

Riverside County had one of the worst foreclosure rates in the nation during 2007, seeing a meteoric 191 percent jump from the previous year to about one home out of every 23 entering foreclosure, according to a national report released Tuesday.

RealtyTrac, a national foreclosure tracking service based in Irvine, reported that 29,826 county homes were in some stage of foreclosure in 2007.

Nationally, 1.29 million homes entered foreclosure in 2007, about a 75 percent increase to about one home out of every 97, according to RealtyTrac.

Meanwhile, home prices to the south in San Diego County dropped by a record amount in November, falling 3.4 percent in just one month, another report released Tuesday stated.

The tumble catapulted San Diego County's year-over-year decline of 13.4 percent to the second-highest in the nation, behind only Miami's 15.1 percent drop, out of the 20 metropolitan areas covered by Standard Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. That means that a house selling for $500,000 in November 2006 would have sold for $433,000 this past November.

Case-Shiller does not track home prices in Riverside County, but real estate agents said that parts of Riverside have seen larger declines than San Diego while other areas in the county have not been as affected.

"Where you have half-acre custom homes, there has been less of an effect," said Barbara Baker, a Murrieta Realtor. "Whereas, the norm tract house, you've got 20 of one model, therefore, the effect has been a little more severe."

On the national stage, home prices declined 7.7 percent year-over-year in November based on the index's 20-city composite.

An avalanche of data showing a slumping housing market has led some in the housing industry to forecast a long, steep decline in area home prices. Others, such as the California Building Industry Association, have predicted the housing market will see a modest recovery this year.

"I see this being a tough market on through 2010 and into 2011," said Lyle Anderson, a Poway real estate agent. "I had people come to me last year who've been in the business 20 years and saying everything's going to be fine this year. I'm looking at them thinking, 'What are you smoking?' I don't see it."

Some real estate agents disagree, saying they think home prices will reach their lowest point later this year and start recovering soon after.

"We're starting to bottom," Baker said. "Builders are starting to slow down, and I think we'll start to recover soon."

The number of San Diego County properties in some stage of foreclosure in 2007 leapt 158 percent year-over-year -- to 20,219 or about one home out of every 55, according to RealtyTrac, a foreclosure tracking service.

On top of that, the November decline for San Diego home prices was the highest ever recorded by the Case-Shiller index since it started issuing reports in 1987 and represents the 17th straight month of home price decline in the county.

The Case-Shiller index measures older homes and compares the price the home sold for to its previous sales price. November is the most recent month available because the index tracks each sale.

Home prices in San Diego's "low-tier," defined by Case-Shiller as homes under $445,779, have dropped the most -- diving 4.8 percent in one month and 20.9 percent annually.

Norm Miller, a professor with the University of San Diego's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, said he agrees with Anderson that local home prices will continue to decline for two or three years. He said the market would then stabilize but recovery would not come until 2012.

"We're seeing a real, fundamental decline in house prices," Miller said, pointing to homeowners expecting to be able to refinance mortgages into fixed interest rates based on increased values before payments jumped after a two- or three-year fixed period to adjustable rates.

"Home appreciation does not pay for mortgages. That's the lesson we've learned," he said.

Local home price decline shows no sign of slowing down. Although a local Realtors report showed median home price in North County actually increased from October to November, it dropped the following month, which means December Case-Shiller numbers could show another steep decline.

But the median dropped 3.4 percent from November to December. The median represents the middle point of home sales, with half of the homes selling for more and half selling for less.

Historically, the Case-Shiller index has shown a more steady decline in prices than the median price.

Real estate agents said they hope Congress' economic stimulus package moves quickly, with hopes of seeing some relief from the decline.

They see an increase in the conforming loan limit -- the highest loan amount that the Federal Housing Administration offers -- as a boon to San Diego's high-priced housing market. The loans typically carry lower interest rates and make it easier for borrowers with weak credit to secure a loan.

The stimulus package calls for an increase in the conforming loan limit to $729,750.

"That should stabilize the local economy somewhat," said Brian Yui, chief executive officer of HouseRebate.com, a San Diego online real estate brokerage. "People could refinance and save up to $400 to $500 a month and could create a mini-refi boom."

Contact staff writer Zach Fox at (951) 676-4315, Ext. 5412, or zfox@californian.com.

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