Many candidates for Congress seats

By: EDWARD SIFUENTES - Staff Writer
New and familiar names in North County races | Sunday, February 17, 2008 9:28 PM PST ∞

With the state's Super Tuesday primary in the past, the next election on the local horizon will decide who will represent North County in Congress next year. The races for the 49th, 50th and 52nd congressional districts have drawn many candidates, including some with familiar names.

The June 3 primary will see incumbents Brian Bilbray, R-Solana Beach, and Darrell Issa, R-Vista, up for re-election in their respective districts, the 50th and 49th.

The name Duncan Hunter appears among those running for the 52nd Congressional District --- but the candidate is Duncan D. Hunter, hoping to capture the seat being vacated by his father, 14-term Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-El Cajon.

Despite his recognizable name, the younger Hunter will have to defeat a handful of potentially strong contenders to win the Republican nomination ---- among them are businessman Ken King, Santee City Councilman Brian Jones and San Diego County Board of Education President Bob Watkins.

They have each raised more than $100,000 for their campaigns as of Dec. 31, according to Federal Election Commission records available through the Web site opensecrets.org.

Hunter, a Marine officer who recently returned from a tour of duty in Afghanistan, said he expects a tough fight for the party's nomination.

"I think they're all great guys," Hunter said in a phone interview Wednesday. "This is an open race and we're not taking anything for granted."

On the hunt in 52nd
Also running for the seat are three Democrats ---- former Navy SEAL Mike Lumpkin, community activist Vickie Butcher and attorney Jim Hester ---- Libertarian candidate Mike Benoit and an American Independent Party candidate whose name is listed as "D. Clark Ambassador for Christ."

Whatever the name, Gary Jacobson, a political science professor at UC San Diego, said Hunter is likely to be the one to beat in the heavily Republican district, which includes most of East County and parts Ramona and Poway.

Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the 52nd District 143,671 to 95,854, according to the county's Registrar of Voters.

Besides name recognition, Hunter also has a fundraising advantage, having raised $224,315 as of Dec. 31.

"It's hard to see how you would beat Hunter in that district with the military record and his father's support," Jacobson said.

Lumpkin said those figures are misleading because Republicans make up less than half the registered voters in the district ---- 45 percent. A number of the district's registered voters, about 19 percent, are nonpartisan or "decline to state."

Lumpkin said his 21-year military career and strong national security platform make him an ideal candidate for the district.

"The numbers aren't as daunting as some would lead you to believe," Lumpkin said Thursday in a phone interview from Washington, where he was raising money for his campaign.

Lumpkin was the top fundraiser in the Democratic field, with $78,159 as of Dec. 31.

Butcher said she hopes her roots in the district as a long-time resident and her involvement in local government will give her campaign an edge.

She has served on numerous boards and commissions and is running on a platform that includes universal health care coverage and a "phased withdrawal" from Iraq.

Butcher, who raised has $9,960, said she faces a tough campaign among better-funded opponents, but that the people of the district are ready for a "new, fresh voice."

Dems see change in 50th
Democrats also are outnumbered in the other North County districts, Jacobson said.

The 50th Congressional District, which stretches from Escondido to the coast and south to Solana Beach, has 148,240 registered Republican voters compared with 102,959 Democrats.

But Democrats say the district is ripe for the taking.

Doug Thornell, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which raises money for Democratic candidates and ranked the Republican-held 50th district as vulnerable, said party leaders were impressed by Nick Leibham, a Rancho Santa Fe lawyer challenging Bilbray.

In December, Democrats listed the race for the 50th Congressional District seat held by Bilbray as one of the top 40 to watch in the nation, in part due to Leibham's ability to raise campaign funds.

Leibham, an attorney and former criminal prosecutor for the city of San Diego, said his campaign platform includes addressing energy independence, global warming and a "timely and responsible" withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Leibham raised $210,925 as of Dec. 31, according to the opensecrets.org Web site.

Leibham and other Democratic candidates say they are encouraged by the surge in the number of Democratic voters in recent elections.

In the Feb. 5 presidential primary, 79,476 voters in the 50th District cast ballots in the Democratic primary compared with 76,446 in the Republican primary.

Some of that advantage is due to the California Democratic Party's decision to allow nonpartisan voters to cast their ballots in the Democratic primary; the state GOP party made the opposite choice.

Still, Leibham cited it as evidence of the Democrats' advantage in voter enthusiasm.

"There is no registration disadvantage for me," Leibham said. "We're excited and they are not."

The field of people who have signaled their intent to run for the 50th District also includes Democrat Cheryl Ede of San Diego; Republican Mirek Gorny of Escondido; Libertarian Wayne Dunlap of Del Mar; Peace and Freedom candidate Miriam Clark; and American Independent Party candidate Richard Anderson of San Diego.

The North County Times attempted to reach most of those who signaled their intent to run in these races, including those listed by the San Diego County Registrar of Voters as having obtained the initial documents necessary to run.

At least one such person said he no longer plans to run for the 50th District: Democrat Steve Schechter said his friends pulled campaign paperwork without knowing that he had changed his mind about running, he said last week.

Bilbray confident
But the 50th District's incumbent said he would win re-election, just like last time.

Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby in a June 2006 special election to pick a temporary replacement for the now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

Democrats and Republicans poured millions into the campaign.

In November 2006, Bilbray won a two-year term with 53 percent of the vote against Busby's 43 percent.

The congressman has become widely recognized as an advocate for stricter illegal immigration controls. But Bilbray said he has worked with Democrats on a number of efforts, and that he believes the district's voters like the job he is doing.

"When I'm in Encinitas getting my hair cut, the feedback I've been getting is great," he said in a phone interview from Washington. "I've never locked into straight party-line politics. When I sit down with (the city) mayors (in the district), we don't line down Democrat and Republican."

Advantage, incumbent
The incumbent in the 49th District also enjoys an advantage in funds and voter registration. Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the district straddling North San Diego and Southwest Riverside counties 74,864 to 44,671 as of Dec. 31.

Issa is being challenged by Democrat Robert Hamilton of Fallbrook and Libertarian Lars Grossmith of Vista.

Issa, a multimillionaire, holds a commanding lead in campaign funds, $524,108 raised as of Dec. 31 to Hamilton's $18,300.

Whatever the district, incumbents have the advantage of name recognition and the ability to raise substantial amounts of money, Jacobson said.

"It's extremely rare for a sitting congressman to be defeated," he said.

Contact staff writer Edward Sifuentes at (760) 740-3511 or esifuentes@nctimes.com.

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