Sucker's Rally wrote on Apr 6, 2008 12:05 AM:Prices are not going up soon. Too many foreclosure are still coming on the market. Unemployment problems will not peak for several months. No more easy money to cause prices to sky rocket up. After the reality of lower prices sink in, they will stagnate.

Jonboy wrote on Apr 6, 2008 5:15 AM:Once again, the unbiased opinions of realtors paint a rosy picture of the slumping housing market.

Tuck wrote on Apr 6, 2008 8:42 AM:This is an extremely obvious story. It is hardly worthy of a headline. Not to mention, the “journalist” barely uses any statistical evidence. Most of the story is full of anecdotal accounts. Where have all the journalists gone? I can talk to my friends and get the same information that this article offers. Another example of how the American media is failing. Hey NCT, why not actually publish an investigative report. If you don’t know what investigate means, I encourage you to look a dictionary.

Waiting to purchase wrote on Apr 6, 2008 9:34 AM:"How many sellers are willing to keep lowering their price until it sells? Maybe one out of 50." That's bunk. Look at the numbers of $750K to $1.5M homes for sale in the Encinitas/Carlsbad market and the drops that are already happening. Wake up Dorthy (aka real estate broker), it's not Dec 2005 anymore. Time to get real back into real estate. The median income in San Diego County won't support those numbers. When reality enters the market again we will to.

Geat wrote on Apr 6, 2008 9:45 AM:This is great news. Wait patiently and you will be greatly rewarded.

Jack wrote on Apr 6, 2008 10:44 AM:Time and time again, The Realtors prove how little they know and how useless they are. Its like asking a used car saleman if you should honestly by that car in the corner.

Home Watcher wrote on Apr 6, 2008 11:16 AM:Utter hogwash from these realtors. They are hurting. And hurting badly. Prices may be dropping in some markets, yes, but most locals still can't afford them, and it doesn't look as if everybody's income is going to double soon. I don't see people rushing to buy all the empty condos around town.

These realtors are trying to put a nice spin on a bad economy, the lowest consumer confidence in a long while, and banks who won't give a loan to an honest worker with great credit.

Nothing is rosy. Yet.

Yankees Fan wrote on Apr 6, 2008 12:41 PM:As an Italian from NY, I must say that the slump in the housing market is good. It will even the playing field and allow more people to move from The Bronx to San Diego. Most of my family lives in the Bronx, around the house that Ruth built, and these lower prices will encourage them to move here. Joe Torre, a great Yankee, is out here, and I am sure many more Yankee fans will be on their way. How you doin’?

Financial and true Real estate Expert wrote on Apr 6, 2008 12:55 PM:This crash has just started and prices are already down 50%. We will see them fall 80% from the peak prices of 2004 and 2005. People should not be paying more than $100,000 for homes in most areas. A home is just a place to put your stuff and sleep. They are not investments. The stock market is for speculation and investing. Gamble there, not with homes.

Floyd wrote on Apr 6, 2008 2:00 PM:So, ah, does this mean the real estate bubble is about to burst?

don't move too fast wrote on Apr 6, 2008 3:16 PM:Don't get sucked into this too easily.
Believing realtors got most into this trouble to begin with. Look at wages here and unemployment and the cost of living here. Landlords are dropping rents,and many are desperate for good renters. Be smart, pay your bills and just watch for a while.

Just off the turnip truck wrote on Apr 6, 2008 3:17 PM:This article is just the NC Times trying to bring in Real Estate advertisement dollars since their other favorite demographic (Illegals) are self deporting due to the loss of yobs.

clm wrote on Apr 6, 2008 4:20 PM:I get the impression that most of the doomsayers are just trying to talk prices down farther. If someone really wants to buy a house who was previously priced out of the market, don't wait too long. Right now we are in a fire sale atmosphere. Many houses are selling for less than cost. As soon as this market works through the foreclosures, we will again have a housing shortage. Keep value in mind instead of speculating on a housing collapse. It is just a matter of time until people look back on the good old days when even a first time buyer could negotiate a good deal on a nice house in Southern California.

NC Watcher wrote on Apr 6, 2008 4:54 PM:Ya, and how are the buyers going to pay for those still over priced homes??? Maybe with sunshine or maybe those high paying jobs on every street corner in S.D. county???
Now that the RECESSION is here and jobs are going to be lost and the cost of living is going to keep skyrocketing lets see how many homes are going to be the next REOs.

Don't Lie to Me wrote on Apr 6, 2008 5:05 PM:Home prices are half-priced, half priced of what? Do they mean the original price that is 4 times the price today or do they mean half-priced is double what they sold for in 2003, which to me is still double what they are really worth in today's dollars. Realtor double speak is still realtor double speak.

Bill wrote on Apr 6, 2008 5:11 PM:Is anyone still talking about 10 pct or even 30 pct as the maximum damage to bubble prices?

If prices are down by 60 pct, then I guess a bottom must be at hand...

– Too bad most sellers did not get the memo yet.

– Too bad not many would-be buyers are qualified to get a loan to buy, even at prices down by over 30 pct from the bubble peak.

– Too bad most qualified buyers aren’t interested in catching falling knives.

– Too bad most would-be buyers have no savings available for a down payment, right at the moment down payments have come back into style.

– Too bad that even the Fed bank chairman is dropping the ‘R’ word now, and that most folks are not interested in making big ticket purchases when job security is increasingly subject to question.

– Too bad that stocks just had a terrible quarter, suggesting another reason that nobody has the money to fund a down payment at the moment.

– Too bad that an ongoing wave of foreclosures is coming back on the market, suggesting further price reductions going forward.

– Too bad that there is still an overhang of brand new vacant homes from the building boom.

Yep — a bottom is obviously right around the corner, folks.

Karl wrote on Apr 6, 2008 5:25 PM:To "Financial and true Real estate Expert @ 12:55 PM" 80% from peak prices of 2004 and 2005? Are you exaggerating just a little? Let's see with your formula the house that I live in and bought in 1996 for 160K (2000 square feet on a private golf course) and peaked at about 550k will drop to 110K? Good thing I didn't buy it as an investment, boy would I look stupid.

Doomsayer wrote on Apr 6, 2008 5:55 PM:CLM: Doomsayers is an odd label for people who waited for the prices to fall. In fact they are pretty smart not to buy a 1500sqf home for 500K.
Foreclosures just started at the end of last year, and they are climbing more and more every month. I do not see us coming into a housing shortage no time soon (2008/2009). There are still alot of ARMS that have not adjusted. Speculator home buyers are not going to continue to pay 3000K to 4000K mortgage with no apprectiative returns. Foreclourses are bring down the price of homes in the neighborhoods so the owners can not refinance.

Is your time line 10 years?

Dude wrote on Apr 6, 2008 7:03 PM:It will be nice when the day comes that all real estate transactions are done over the internet so that we won't have to listen to realtors talk nonsense. This article says it all with respect to realtors. The day will come when we can do the whole thing online and it will only cost us a couple hundred bucks to sell our house.

clm wrote on Apr 7, 2008 8:27 AM:Doomsayer, my timeline starts starts now for some properties that are beginning to pencil out even for investors. You are right about foreclosures continuing for several years. Depending on the seller, some will take any price to get rid of them. Other sellers will never sell at the prices that some are paying today. They will hold out for a higher price. So even though inventory is high, only part of it will come down to today's prices.

People who think the sky is falling are the counterpart to the crowd who thought prices would always outstrip inflation. Real estate will always be prone to cycles. Anyone serious about wanting a home in Southern California should start investigating the market and financing options. Some of the newer neighborhoods were sold with bad loans at high prices. Since so many homes are going back, the comps are artificially lower than many older, less desirable neighborhoods. Interest rates are low. Some nice homes can now be purchased for less than the price of rent.

The market may get cheaper overall, but there are pockets of opportunity that will probably never be repeated. This article helps to explain it.

Sittin' Pretty wrote on Apr 7, 2008 9:00 AM:Home prices in my neighborhood continue to climb. Of course, buying a home in the right areas takes some luck, but also some wisdom. If you buy in low-end neighborhoods, you get low-end pricing in both good and bad times. The opposite is true if you buy in high-end areas. Discerning buyers take their time and pick carefully. This does pay off.

Wait all you want to buy, but it won't help you in my neck of the woods. You'll just keep slipping further and further behind.

Jim wrote on Apr 7, 2008 10:08 AM:The foreclosed house next to us sports weeds taller than me. People keep pulling into the driveway to look at it. They get out and wander around the front and back yard (it would be nice if you would latch the gate when you leave, folks). There have probably been half a dozen different cars, including some with out of state plates (great, more absentee landlords). Mind you, this place doesn't even have a "for sale" sign on it yet, and we're on a very short cul-de-sac invisible from the main road, so these are not people who are driving by and happen to notice it. Speculators or would-be homeowners? Time will tell.

Kelja wrote on Apr 7, 2008 10:29 AM:clm & Sittin Pretty are delusional. And perhaps they are Realtors or yesterday's house flippers.

Earth to clm & Sitting Pretty: prices will back down to where they make sense. In other words, use a matrix that makes sense to value RE. Perhaps GMR? When GMR (Gross Monthly Rent) is back in the 120 to 140 area, then an investment in RE again makes sense. Or use a multiple of average San Diegan income to come up with realistic numbers.

The whole housing mess, the incredible false housing price spike that drove prices to unreasonable levels was caused by the imbecles at the FED. They made money so cheap, they essencially took risk out of the equation. After all, if you can buy a $800K home, no money down with 1% interest, at least initially, where's the risk?

Knife-catching is indeed a dangerous hobby.

Vista Renter wrote on Apr 7, 2008 12:09 PM:Home prices are still declining, and up for another 20%+ drop before finished.

I'm in the market for a home, and can ride out this market bottom and catch the next cycle to sell.

Unfortunately, most of the homes I've seen are in horrible shape. I'm suprised at just how poorly people take care of them. Many bargain homes are under 10 years old, but already have 30 years worth of damage and neglect. Combined with very poor California construction, they're going to cost alot to bring back to life.

Investors should be very cautious right now. With thousands of cheap rentals now available buyers are going to be very picky when it comes to buying a house. The days of 120k homes selling for 300k+ are over.

Realtors... wrote on Apr 7, 2008 12:13 PM:...are like glorified used cars salesman. They talk the talk but they do very little to earn their money. Why is it that they tell you that you have to offer a 3% commission to the buying agent otherwise "some" might not show your house to their clients? Whose best interests do they have in mind their clients or their own pockets. What do they do to deserve driving a Mercedes or a BMW? What do they really do to earn their money? Not a dam thing most times, they merely suck off your profits.

Doomsayer wrote on Apr 7, 2008 7:40 PM:Sittin' Pretty: What area is this? I show all neighbors getting hit... Some higher than others.

clm wrote on Apr 8, 2008 12:00 AM:Kelja, I have been a real estate investor for 30 years. Buy, fix, rent, for the most part. After witnessing many cycles, I don't get frenzied when the market is flying high nor panicked when the market is in the dumps. In fact, when most people are talking about what a bad investment real estate is, that is usually when I am buying most. My delusions have served me well over the years. It must just be dumb luck. I've tried to pass those delusions on to many of my renters. Usually, though, they don't take my advice until they see the rest of the crowd buying. That is usually when I start sitting out. Dang, maybe someday I will get it right.

john wrote on Apr 18, 2008 8:53 AM:The real estate market in San Diego will continue to go down. The San Diego economy is faltering. Prices will have to fall at least another 20%. Realtors are full of greed and manipulate the media. There is noway whatsoever that that prices will increase in San Diego. It will take about 6 years for prices to re-stabilize.