POLITICS: Latinos expected to play key role in presidential election
Population segment now experiencing close inspection
By EDWARD SIFUENTES - Staff Writer | ∞
With Latinos expected to play a critical role in November's presidential election, the fast-growing segment of the electorate is coming under increasing scrutiny.
Several reports and polls released in recent months attempt to shed light on what has been an elusive segment of the population to classify politically.
The reports show a significant growth in the Latino electorate and also suggest that group is increasingly turning to the Democratic Party because of heated rhetoric over immigration among Republican lawmakers.
Marching into that fray this week are presidential rivals Barack Obama and John McCain.
The presidential candidates are in San Diego to appeal for the support of thousands of Latinos attending the annual conference of the National Council of La Raza, one of the country's largest civil rights organizations.
Latinos' potential to make a difference in November is reflected in the numbers. A Census Bureau report released last month shows that 5.6 million Latinos voted in the 2006 general election, an increase of 18 percent over 2002.
Many of those voters live in states political analysts consider key to winning the White House ---- Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
In California, 23 percent of eligible voters are Latino, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, a research organization that focuses on the Latino population.
In a recent report, the center projected that of the 18.2 million Latinos eligible to vote in the country, about 8.6 million will show up to the polls in November. That would be a million more than in 2004.
With the next president expected to take up the thorny issue of immigration reform, the candidates' views on the matter are considered to be key in swaying Latino voters, said Frank Sharry, executive director of American's Voice, a pro-immigrant advocacy organization.
"Without the Latino vote no candidate can claim a clear advantage during the election, and their position on immigration reform will be a defining factor in whether or not they receive the support of Latino voters," Sharry said.
A crucial vote
The candidates are expected to address their ideas for overhauling the nation's immigration system when they speak at the La Raza conference this week.
Obama, the Democratic senator from Illinois, is scheduled to speak at the event Sunday, followed by Republican McCain of Arizona on Monday.
Both candidates supported a failed immigration reform bill last year that included a plan for legalizing millions of undocumented immigrants. But they have criticized each other on the issue in recent months.
McCain has charged that Obama was largely absent from bipartisan negotiations to draft the measure.
Obama has criticized McCain for later withdrawing his support and instead backing calls for strong border security measures first.
Local Latino activists said last week that they are looking forward to hearing how each candidate would now handle immigration reform. But it remains unclear what role Latino voters in the county will play in both local and national elections.
Recent studies indicate the Latino population, which is about 40 percent in some North County cities, is increasing. But there has been relatively little analysis of the local Latino electorate.
In 2002, Latino registered voters were estimated to make up about 15 percent, or roughly 201,000, of the county's 1.3 million voters. About 41,000 of them were estimated to live in North County, according to an analysis done by a Republican marketing consultant at that time.
In a similar review, Latinos made up about 16 percent of the nearly 800,000 people who voted in February's presidential elections in the county, according to Datamar Inc., an El Cajon-based polling and electoral data company.
The data was culled from the county's registrar of voters information by running it through a computer program that identifies Latino names, said Datamar President Raul Furlong.
Because California is such an overwhelmingly Democratic state, most political analysts say Latino voters here are unlikely to play a decisive role in the presidential election.
California is one of 17 states, largely clustered in the West and Northeast areas of the country, where voters have chosen Democratic candidates in each of the last four presidential elections, said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic political strategist.
The battleground states where Latinos can influence the election are expected to be Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, he said. These are states with significant Latino populations and no clear advantage for either party in the general electorate.
"There is no way to win if they (the candidates) don't win a substantial number of the Latino vote in these states," Rosenberg said.
A stark choice
The key for a McCain victory is to win more than 40 percent of the Latino vote nationwide, Rosenberg said. The problem for McCain is that recent polls show he is far behind Obama in attracting potential Latino voters, he said.
A Gallup poll released July 2 reported that 59 percent of Latino registered voters preferred Obama over McCain, 29 percent.
That poll paints a misleading picture, according to Raoul Lowery Contreras, a Republican political commentator and freelance columnist for the North County Times.
A recent AP-Yahoo News poll that showed Obama leading McCain among Hispanics, 47 percent to 22 percent, is more accurate because it narrows the survey to likely voters, Contreras said.
The Gallup poll includes new voters, who tend to favor Obama, but can be unreliable in showing up to vote on election day, he said.
McCain needs to win a little more than a third of the Latino vote to win the presidency, Contreras said. He said Republican candidates that have won at least 35 percent of Latino votes since 1968 have won the White House, Contreras said.
Contreras said he also believes that Obama will have a hard time getting more than 47 percent of the Latino vote.
That is because there are segments of the Latino population that would not vote for Obama, such as culturally conservative, anti-abortion, and, in some cases, anti-black voters, he said.
"Given such a stark choice, enough Latinos will vote for McCain," he said.
Others, such as Rosenberg, disagree. McCain, he said, has a difficult task in attract significant numbers of Latinos because of the Republican Party's use of illegal immigration as a wedge issue in recent years.
"McCain is facing a very difficult situation because his party has been branded as anti-immigrant and the question is can he overcome that?" he said.
Contact staff writer Edward Sifuentes at (760) 740-3511 or esifuentes@nctimes.com.
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Hipolito wrote on Jul 12, 2008 5:54 PM:Yeah...as long as the ballots are in Spanish!
Roberto wrote on Jul 12, 2008 8:34 PM:Poor McCain...he has to appease all the xenophobes like the mm for example and at the same time try and develop a comprehensives and realistic immigration reform plan and continue to tell the racist nothing will ever change...I voting for him but I think its like tossing my vote to the wind. There are many other important issues that are getting ignored because of the attemtion being paid to people sneaking around and working...
Good wrote on Jul 13, 2008 12:08 AM:Good. I hope the Latinos vote in record numbers. Especially in Escondido.
FINALLY someone got it wrote on Jul 13, 2008 6:04 AM:Geez it is about time I read some real news with real truth. It is all about the Latinos. Isn't that what scares the racists few in our beautiful country. Those who were the minority are now the majority and ya know majority rules. The candidates know who to woo and who to woe. Si se puede
This Latino is for Obama wrote on Jul 13, 2008 6:15 AM:Hey why are you all worried about the Latino vote? After all according to the hate groups that have emerged "all brown people are here illegally!!! Lets see what happens when the Latino voice is heard loud and clear. I think some of those candidates better start with denouncing the activities of the vigilante groups. Those hate groups who have the audacity to call themselves patriots. True Patriots respected the wishes and rights of fellow Americans, not cause divisions.
Tuck wrote on Jul 13, 2008 7:00 AM:And here I thought we were all Americans.
What is next Senor wrote on Jul 13, 2008 7:57 AM:McCain and Senor Obama? Maybe pandering to the North Vietnamese? How about the KKK? Or how about the Black Panther Party? Sorry guys, but we need an American President, not a presidente insisting on giving America to merxico.
Matt wrote on Jul 13, 2008 8:06 AM:"Latinos expected to play key role in presidential election"
And don't the racists just hate it?
prof wrote on Jul 13, 2008 9:31 AM:"And don't the racists just hate it?"
No, La Raza ("THE RACE") loves it!
What makes you think wrote on Jul 13, 2008 9:59 AM:it is going to be different this time? Every time there is an election there is always a low turn out of hispanics, sorry folks just the way it is.
I agree with Tuck wrote on Jul 13, 2008 10:30 AM:Why do politicians work so hard to appeal to one particular group when our communities are made up of many cultures and backgrounds? You can't please everyone so it's best to treat everyone exactly the same.
Realist wrote on Jul 13, 2008 10:42 AM:Of those latinos expected to "play a key role" this year in politics, how many had parents and grandparents who came here illegally. How will that impact our political landscape when the bottomline is that their parents and grandparents cheated to come here? Will that skew politics to the Left? I think so.
Mexican not Latino wrote on Jul 13, 2008 10:59 AM:I watched last night on the local news.
They had predicted that the Latino event was going to draw about 20 thousand people. Unfortunately for them only 2 thousand showed up! presumably event organizers were/are charging $ 150.00 dollars per person to attend the event.
I found that rather odd, I wonder if this was some kind of fundraiser for these so called "Latino Advocates."
The only people I saw walking around in the convention center were tons or reporters and event organizers.
Sounds like a flop to me.
I think these so called Latino radicals and their illegal alien votes should stick with Hillary wackos.
And Here I Thought wrote on Jul 13, 2008 11:40 AM:that those who voted were Americans. We seem to have Female-Americans, Male-Americans, African-Americans, White-Americans, Mexican-Americans, Gay-Americans, Straight-Americans, Liberal-Americans, Conservative-Americans and the list of (fill in the blank)-Americans stretches from here to Mars and back 10 times over. Why don't we vote for what's best for America, not for whatever hyphenated American group we happen to identify ourselves at the moment?
Obamanation wrote on Jul 13, 2008 12:34 PM:Barack will say anything to get the latino vote. He is like a cameleon, he changes colors and his stance to please those who are at his podium at the time.
Times are not looking good for the United States of America.
esteban wrote on Jul 13, 2008 12:42 PM:To "This latino for obama"...you write, "True Patriots respected the wishes and rights of fellow Americans, not cause divisions." That's just it, illegals are NOT Americans! Also, the only ones causing divisions are xenophobic people like Flores and Jillings and Morones.
June wrote on Jul 13, 2008 12:48 PM:The key word is American. U.S.A. got it?
My vote counts too wrote on Jul 13, 2008 12:53 PM:Per the article, Obama has criticized McCain for withdrawing his support of legalizing millions of illegals, backing calls for strong border security measures first. Sounds like a very good reason to vote for McCain rather than Obama who apparently has no problem with millions of illegals breaking into this country. If Latinos are going to vote for Obama because he's the one most likely to pander to them, then I will vote against him for the same reason.
Go McCain wrote on Jul 13, 2008 1:29 PM:Obama can't take a stance on any matter and changes his mind every 2 seconds. As a "Latina" (whatever that means anymore) I'm voting for McCain at least I know what I'm bargaining for. Lastly, American is NOT always a person of the Aryan race anymore the face isn't necessarily blue-eyed and blonde-haired; not every Latino came here illegally and I hope we can set our differences aside and vote for what is the best for our country!
Daniel wrote on Jul 13, 2008 1:31 PM:As an American Citizen that happens to be Latin I'm sick and tired of groups like La Raza. I'll vote for anyone that will secure our borders and make sure our immigration laws are enforced. Come to this country legally, obey the laws, work hard, get an education, speak English and be a respectable American. Who cares what race you are if you do all the obove. Groups like La Raza only breed racism.
Common Sense wrote on Jul 13, 2008 2:44 PM:To Daniel: "As an American Citizen that happens to be Latin I'm sick and tired of groups like La Raza. I'll vote for anyone that will secure our borders and make sure our immigration laws are enforced. Come to this country legally, obey the laws, work hard, get an education, speak English and be a respectable American. Who cares what race you are if you do all the obove. Groups like La Raza only breed racism." There is so much common sense in your statement, I just had to repeat it. Thanks!
LARAZZA wrote on Jul 13, 2008 2:58 PM:yea we gonna tacke back this countrie from all of you racsist an give it back to Mexico who you stoled it from.
Nice work Ed... wrote on Jul 13, 2008 3:33 PM:Nice work Edward, you right this long story about the rising tide of Latino votes impacting elections, but you failed to address two critical issues:
1.) How many people who have entered the country illegally, and receive benefits and vote -- probably the way people in Chicago do, when democrats tell them how to vote. No mention of prior democratic candidates telling "everyone" to register to vote, whether legal or not.
2.) Several Latinos I know, own homes, cars, SUVs and vote conservatively, while casting dispersions on democrats because they're worked for what they own.
Hopefully, Edward will find time to pursue these true Americans.
Fact is... wrote on Jul 13, 2008 7:04 PM:Any white or black folks belong to La Razaa? No? I thought so. Racist organization. Dare you to print this.
Ralphs wrote on Jul 13, 2008 7:09 PM:If you have to be an American citizen in order to vote, why are they called Latino's? They do not refer to me as an English, Dutch, German, Indian. I thought we were Americans!!!!
Newt wrote on Jul 13, 2008 8:14 PM:Get a stamp and stamp Vote McCain on each of your ones, fives, tens, and twenties.
Mike wrote on Jul 13, 2008 9:20 PM:Its really sad to see so many ignorant comments on both sides of the immigration issue living in the area. Not all mexicans are immigrants and the term Latino refers to our descent not a lesser american. Just like every white american is of european descent. I agree that some immigrants here ilegally are taxing our sytem and there needs to be something done about it but I wish all of this racist crap would end.
EscoWatchDog wrote on Jul 13, 2008 10:35 PM:yeah right. to: LARAZZA
You don't know how to spell the word" La Raza" so you must be pretending. You would also know La Raza means the people, unless used to describe race in a different context. Non-spanish speakers don't understand that context use varies for words in Spanish. Maybe try learning some Spanish, you may be less angry and hateful and learn a thing or two.
ALBERTO wrote on Jul 13, 2008 10:57 PM:DIDN'T WE TRADE A DONKEY AND SOME SEED CORN FOR MEXICO.THATS NOT STEALING.THATS A DEAL.
American Voter wrote on Jul 13, 2008 11:09 PM:Why is it Latino votes so important? I thought it was American votes that count. Why the focus on just Latinos? La Raza is a joke. They're the racist. The United States has more than just Latinos living in this country, so why is it always about them? Frankly, I'm fed up with it.
Curious poll worker wrote on Jul 14, 2008 3:11 AM:My neighborhood is full of Spanish language newspapers everyday yet almost no one comes in to vote who asks for the Spanish ballot. Either they can't vote or they don't bother. My guess is that all of this 'hispandering' is a waste of time. They talk the talk but they don't walk the walk.
Citizen wrote on Jul 14, 2008 3:45 AM:We are all of various ethnicities. I would be extremely embarrassed to think that my family needed to be pandered to. US citizens are all equal under the law. We've fought wars for this and we vote our conscience. Voting priviledges no longer exclude race or gender. Any legal citizen can and should vote. NO pandering and no apologies!
I am going to test wrote on Jul 14, 2008 5:58 AM:our nusiance law, I am calling police 24/7 on stereos, urination, selling hot food, the whole enchilada! Then I am going to be taking property owners and landlords to small claims for putting me through continous nusiance by their tenets.:)
You are so funny I am going to test wrote on Jul 14, 2008 7:43 AM:Funny!! Do you mean tenants? You should call the police everytime you see someone urinating in public but don't expect the cops to come because on Saturday I called the police to report a public urinator and they never arrived. This guy was panhandling on the exit ramp of the 78 at El Camino Real and decided to whip it out and pee. My 8 year old daughter was in the car and saw this sight. Sad that the police don't do anything about this problem. After that incident I get to the mall and I am approached by a young man who was selling a hot stereo. I called security and they never came around. I think there is no hope for us good Americans.
Roberto wrote on Jul 14, 2008 8:10 AM:To all the Mexicans...and American of Mexican descent...If this slime blog doesn't wake you up, nothing will...
First they came for the Jews
and I did not speak out
because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for the Communists
and I did not speak out
because I was not a Communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists
and I did not speak out
because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for me
and there was no one left
to speak out for me
sdraoul wrote on Jul 14, 2008 9:52 AM:Politicians go after "soccer moms" which means white female suburbanites and no one complains.
Politicians go after Jewish voters who are all white and no one complains.
Politicians go after white working class Catholics and no one complains.
Politicians go after white Cuban voters in Florida and no one complains.
But, if politicos go after Mexican-origin voters, the roof falls in and every racist jerk in the county writes this blog complaining that "Americans" aren't being courted and the country is being sold out to Mexico.
If they want "American" voters catered to, go to Mississippi or South Carolina where Confederate flags fly, appealing to "Americans."
Faux Chuckles wrote on Jul 14, 2008 11:13 AM:Roberto, Unfortunately you forgot the last line:
Then they came to steal America
and I did not speak out because
I was called a racist and a xenophobe
I will always speak out against you and your type!
arnys army wrote on Jul 14, 2008 1:56 PM:Immigration is the new abortion.No president has any control over the issue, it is a Supreme Court decision. If I'm not mistaken the Repukelican Presidents have granted more "immigration amnesty" than any other party.
To Faux Chuckles wrote on Jul 14, 2008 3:54 PM:One good turn deserves another. You disrespectful fool.
IF wrote on Jul 14, 2008 5:17 PM:you're an American of Mexican descent and you describe yourself that way, you've got it right. You show where your loyalty is, as an American FIRST. IF you describe yourself as a Mexican-American, that is equally telling.
sdjuanita wrote on Jul 14, 2008 5:51 PM:Wow did I miss the 4-day convention for the soccer moms group and the luncheons by both presidential losers and the day we call "soccer mom day."
The last time I checked there were not 20 million soccer moms trying to sneak into this country.
Compare apples to apples.
to FINALLY someone got it wrote on Jul 14, 2008 6:01 PM:FINALLY someone got it
[-] wrote on Jul 13, 2008 6:04 AM: "Those who were the minority are now the majority and ya know majority rules. The candidates know who to woo and who to woe. Si se puede"
What are you "majority" going to do when we "minority" are no longer there to foot your bill, to pay for all the babies you cannot afford, to teach in schools, to pay for your hospital care, where will you go to get your free ride?
arnulfo wrote on Jul 16, 2008 10:55 PM:dont worry about who will help us with our "free ride"...just worry about what your feel when you see your grandkids cleaning our toilets, mowing our lawns, harvesting our crops, painting our houses, washing our cars, etc. etc. the list goes on and on....We are making our come back and were gnna get back what should still belong to us. instead of us going back to where we came from, why dont you think again and consider going back to where ever your 6X great grandparents came from? we never intended to hurt anyone and if you dont wanna accept us coming back illegaly or not, then your gonna have to deal with it anyways because life is never what you want it to be. Our blood, sweat, and tears are fnally paying off. You "haters" wouldn't even survive a single day of migrant work. I know i kinda went off topic but im just trying to throw my point out there for All of You to read. Our vtes will make a dramatic change on everything just watch....
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