GASOLINE: Cutbacks drive down prices, analysts say

By CHRIS BAGLEY - Staff Writer | Thursday, July 31, 2008 8:15 PM PDT

Frugal drivers and cheaper oil have combined, analysts say, to drive gasoline prices back down toward $4 a gallon in a rollback nearly as stunning as the increase that preceded it.

Drivers in North County and across California are pumping less gasoline than in 2007, according to statewide statistics and interviews with drivers. The cutbacks are minor in percentage terms, but even small fluctuations in demand can cause price spikes in California's isolated gasoline market, analysts say. State law requires special smog-reducing blends of gasoline that can't easily be shipped or pumped in from outside the state, analysts note.

Regular gasoline has fallen by 43 cents a gallon since hitting a record the week of June 19, according to regular surveys by the San Diego-based Utility Consumers' Action Network. Diesel fuel has fallen 23 cents from a record high the week of May 29.

And prices will probably continue to fall for at least another couple of weeks, said Charles Langley, the consumer group's analyst who conducts the weekly survey.

Cheaper oil is a key reason for the drop in gas prices, too. Crude, which accounts for about three-quarters of the price of a gallon of gas, fell to $124.08 a barrel Thursday, continuing a three-week slide from a record above $147 on July 11.

But oil isn't the only reason, analysts said.

"The drop in demand is a huge piece of this," said David Hackett, an Irvine-based fuels analyst. "There's no doubt."

California gas stations pumped about 2 percent less gas in April than in the same month of 2007, the California Board of Equalization said. The state hasn't yet published gasoline sales data for May, June or July, but analysts said higher gasoline prices and rising unemployment rates in those three months almost certainly have encouraged further cutbacks in driving.

As a result, refiners no longer can sell their affiliated stations all of the gasoline they're able to make, so they're selling more of it to independent middlemen at lower prices, said Severin Borenstein, director of the University of California Energy Institute, at UC's Berkeley campus.

Compared with July 2007, refining costs and profits added only about half as much to the price of a gallon of gasoline last month, the California Energy Commission estimates. Near-record oil prices have still kept gasoline about a dollar a gallon more expensive than last summer, according to its estimates.

Drivers say the high prices and stagnating economy have forced them to make all sorts of changes. Some have bought small, fuel-efficient cars to use for commuting, while putting their larger trucks and sport utility vehicles up for sale or leaving them at home during the week. Several ride-share Web sites report more users.

Escondido resident Ismael Covarrubias combines errands more often and goes out to dinner less often than he did last summer, he said Thursday morning as he filled up his pickup truck at an Arco station on El Norte Parkway. At the station, regular gasoline was a relative bargain at $4.06. Covarrubias said he has little flexibility in commuting to his job in Carlsbad, but he has started grouping his small landscaping jobs in a way that allows him to make fewer total trips.

"The way I see it, if everybody starts putting in more gas, it'll go back up," he said.

Representatives of the oil and refining industries have blamed California's higher gasoline prices on the relative difficulty of building new refineries in the state. But the lack of new refineries in the state probably also reflects rational decisions by refining companies, Borenstein said. Consumers' and state and federal governments' increased focus on fuel efficiency and renewable energy may leave refiners wondering whether they'll be able to recoup a multibillion-dollar investment over the next 40 years, he said.

For some drivers, frugality means never filling up all the way, either because they don't have the cash or because they know that a lighter load helps fuel efficiency. In recent months, the Auto Club of Southern California and several public agencies in the region have reported more calls from drivers who are stranded after they run out of fuel.

Jeff Harkins, a painter, pulled his truck up to the El Norte Arco station Thursday morning with a near-empty tank, hoping to scrape together enough cash to get back to Murrieta, where he lives. A couple of years ago, Harkins said, he had enough work in Southwest Riverside County without having to drive 35 miles to Escondido or Riverside. But a sharp downturn in the area's real estate market has changed that, he said.

"I'm driving down here to get a couple of days of work," Harkins said, "but $60 of that is going to gas."

Contact staff writer Chris Bagley at (760) 740-5444 or cbagley@nctimes.com. Bagley blogs about local economic trends at www.nctimes.com/blogs/minding_your_business.

For information on carpooling:

http://www.ridelink.org/Commuter_Services/Carpooling

http://www.erideshare.com/carpool.php?&search=san%20diego

Statewide gasoline sales:

April 2007: 1.29 billion gallons

April 2008: 1.27 billion gallons

Decrease: 2.2 percent

Statewide diesel fuel sales:

April 2007: 250 million gallons

April 2008: 230 million gallons

Decrease: 7.8 percent

Combined cost and profit per gallon on gasoline refiners' sales to affiliated stations:

July 2007: 53 cents/gallon

July 2008: 30 cents/gallon

Decrease: 43 percent

Combined cost and profit per gallon on gasoline refiners' sales to independent stations:

July 2007: 61 cents/gallon

July 2008: 15 cents/gallon

Decrease: 75 percent

Sources: California Board of Equalization, California Energy Commission

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Pre-Registration Comments[-]Go to Top

oceanside resident wrote on Jul 31, 2008 11:23 PM:Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less

Mike S. wrote on Aug 1, 2008 11:27 AM:Drive less, pay less. That seems to be what the article is about. We can start the drilling planning now and pay 4 cents less per gallon 10 years from now, or drive 10% less and pay 50 cents less per gallon right now. Seems like an obvious choice.

People don't want their life to change. But if people gradually planned to move closer to their work, exchanged gas-hungry hobbies for other recreational pursuits, bought smaller vehicles, we could make a much bigger dent in the demand than the measly 2% reported in the article. Think how that would drive down prices.

Look past this summer, look past the election, and quit calling for relatively short-term fixes that won't even help for 10 years. Ultimately any plan for drilling is a short term fix--petroleum is being consumed several thousand times faster than it is being created, and we're going to run out. That is, if the changing climate doesn't kill off civilization as we know it first. And well it might.

Brandy wrote on Aug 1, 2008 11:33 AM:WOW!! Supply and demand!! Demand goes down, prices goes down. Supply stays up, prices go down.

Time to increase supply and watch the prices fall!! Time to tap into ANWR and offshore!!!!!!

dRILL wrote on Aug 1, 2008 12:28 PM:Those who think it is not prudent to drill now ---because it takes 10 years to attain the oil--- must think that 10 years from now their won't be a need. Come on, don't be ignorant we might as well start bringing it up as soon as we can, the demand will be here 10 years from now as well. Drill through the heads of Caribou if necessary.

Mike S. wrote on Aug 1, 2008 12:45 PM:All the oil in the ANWR and off the California coast will do next to nothing to support a petroleum-based economy. If we're that desperate for oil 10 years from now, we'll have problems that can't be solved. Start looking ahead to a less petroleum-driven economy. Make some sacrifices for your children and their children.

Fool Me Twice wrote on Aug 1, 2008 1:04 PM:I sure was fooled. All this time I figured the oil companies had over inflated prices to an extreme level only to lower them to an intermediate level that was still significantly higher than before, thereby making everyone think how much the price of gas has REALLY declined.

I think these genius analysts should be rewarded by the oil companies for contriving such a nice fairy tale (perhaps sharing some of those unprecedented, highest business profits in the history of the universe), and I'll send my letter of apology to Exxon and the others for thinking they were corrupt little weasels.

Derek wrote on Aug 1, 2008 1:49 PM:The best thing we can do to ensure a continued supply of petroleum for our children and grandchildren is to lower demand by keeping prices high. Let them drill in ANWR if they want to, it will be theirs to waste.

Chris Bagley -- Staff Writer wrote on Aug 1, 2008 2:06 PM:The post by "Fool Me Twice" brings up a very important point that I could've made more clear in the article: Oil companies and refining companies are not necessarily the same. Valero, for example, owns refineries but no oil reserves. Exxon, on the other hand, drills and refines oil. So it sells some of the oil it drills and some of the oil it refines may come from other companies or other countries. Exxon is still making plenty of money on oil, which was surely a huge factor in its record profit of $11.7 billion in the April-June period (see http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-fi-exxon1-2008aug01,0,5221267.story). Analysts and the California Energy Commission are saying that Exxon, Valero and other companies are making less money on refining than they were making a year ago.

EscoLocal wrote on Aug 1, 2008 2:38 PM:Wow, I'm stunned. A staff writer comes into the comment section and explans his writings, thats huge. Thanks.

I believe a combination of lower use, more supply (drilling off shore)and alternitive fuels should and will drive prices lower. Doing nothing, which is what usually happens, you will see prices rise again.

Donnylagoon wrote on Aug 1, 2008 2:54 PM:What a laugh!!!!

Speculation brought oil price down. Sign a bill, move closer to drilling, speculators see the writing on the wall.

No wait, Al Gore brought the prices down...

Faux Chuckles wrote on Aug 1, 2008 3:00 PM:Even gas guzzlers need love, so I bought a cruiser motorcycle for the 10 mile commute to work and to have fun on the weekends. I have dropped my gas useage by 75% and when I figure in my desert trips to ride my ATV hauling my trailer with the gas guzzler I will still have cut my useage by 50% yearly. I bet those 50 mile each way Prius driving commuters from Temecula can't say that, and they won't have nearly as much fun.

Fool Me Twice wrote on Aug 1, 2008 3:16 PM:Bagley's a good journalist, and I'll second EscoLocal's appreciation for the interaction.

Good point on the distinction of where the big money is being made, and more importantly, what is being done with the huge profits. "Pumping cash, not oil" pretty much sums it up.

Chris Bagley -- Staff Writer wrote on Aug 1, 2008 3:26 PM:To clarify for Donnylagoon: This article was primarily about gas prices, not oil prices. California drivers probably have very, very little ability to influence world oil prices, but demand can make a significant difference when the supply of a product is fixed, which is somewhat true of gasoline in California. The analysts who spoke to me were unanimous and emphatic in saying that, it fits with the state's figures on supply and demand in the state, and it fits with basic supply-demand analysis. Speculation and increased drilling certainly can influence oil prices to one degree or another, but those aren't the only factors that influence gasoline prices.

hahahaha wrote on Aug 1, 2008 3:33 PM:hey donny - do you understand speculation at all? futures are not held for years, or even months, they are a quickly traded for fast bucks. Even the novice commdities trader would know that something that is going to happen years down the road will have ZERO effect on todays prices. The article spoonfed you the fact that reduced demand forced refiners to sell excess capacity to independents. Nice attempt at spinning it into a talking point for McBush.

Lets solve it for good wrote on Aug 1, 2008 4:04 PM:Drilling is not a short-term fix. It would take a decade or more to bring the oil from the ocean floor to the gas pump. On the other hand, getting our cars and trucks to average just 35 mpg by 2020 will save 1 million barrels of oil per day –which is a standard already signed into law but not yet implemented. We have the technology to make our cars far more efficient than 35 mpg and that is where the government and car companies should be putting their efforts. To save consumers money at the pump, cut our oil addiction and help stop global warming, our leaders in Washington should push for easy access to good public transportation and cars that go farther on a gallon of gas. Enough with the old jokes-can't we all just recognize that what benefits our planet benefits our economy, and hence benefits all of our lives? We're in a huge mess-let's stop fighting and do our best for future generations, and ours NOW.

jerry wrote on Aug 1, 2008 4:15 PM:they drop prices to shut us up then when everybody get comfortable with 4 dollar gallon gas it will shoot up again due to demand then by then 5 dollar gallon gas will be the norm and will continue to rise in the coming years.

donnylagoon wrote on Aug 1, 2008 4:52 PM:hey hahaha - you must have a degree in (substitute anything you wish but not finance)only a child would think the true supply/demand economics are not effected by futures trading. could care less for bush, but really enjoy your lack of understanding. should i assume you are a democrat? that would make you happy.if that's the case, are you employed? look, i fell right into your sad and tired trap. ahhhhhhh haaaaaaa

Donnylaggon wrote on Aug 1, 2008 5:01 PM:Well put Mr. Bagley - and puts my overly general and blanket statement in perspective. Statistics are just that and can be massaged. Hey hahaha - when being spoon fed just keep your eyes closed and ignore the holder of the spoon. Sounds familiar...spoon fed....

FMT wrote on Aug 1, 2008 7:34 PM:Bagley has done his homework - maybe he (or any fellow Anons) can opine on these thoughts.

If Big Oil was granted permission tomorrow to drill ANWR under the condition that every barrel extracted would be subject to a maximum price ceiling, would they agree?

There's no question that higher gas prices have raised the consciousness for conservation, which is a net positive, and I'd be willing to bet consumers would have buy-in with a reasonable additional increase in return for future stability in fuel prices.

The main problem hasn't been the cost - it's been the way the surprise ambush was conducted by the oil companies, which didn't allow consumers to plan for the quick hit to their budget.

Let's see if Big Oil is more interested in stability of America than obscene shareholder enrichment. Let's see if Exxon is satisfied enough with their $40 Billion profit from last year at the expense of millions of suffering consumers, and are willing to change their business practices and convince me that they aren't corrupt little weasels.

Drive or Slow DownSave Gas wrote on Aug 2, 2008 7:48 AM:All across America there are groups starting for the "Drive 55" movement, or right here in North County high schools it has become "Slow Down-Save Gas" . If we spent a small amount of time researching these issues, we would find that WE would lower our effective gas/fuel prices by 25-30 %. If we want to get the Exons of the world to lower their outlandish profits, we have to reduce our dependence. Since it will be years before the hybrids will really make a dent, this is something we can do NOW. Just try it for a couple of weeks or a month and see the results ! NCT - please rerun the Slow Down-Save Lives stories and follow up on the Drive 55 movement.

I drink your milkshake wrote on Aug 2, 2008 9:47 AM:More drilling is oil-company corporate welfare. Nevertheless, I say let the states decide whether to allow offshore drilling. Any state with a stupid enough population to allow their resources to be plundered by robber-baron oilmen deserves to have oil all over their coastline. At least California remembers Santa Barbara and won't make that mistake again.

There's a lovely view of oil platforms from the northern Baja coast. If we want our ocean views to be as beautiful as Mexico's, let the voters decide.

Consumers rule wrote on Aug 2, 2008 10:08 AM:Proof that consumers rule the marketplace, not the oil companies. The impact of more US drilling on retail gas prices will be ZERO compared to the impact of consumer behavior.

Keep voting with your wallet, and they will pay attention.

Drilling is corporate welfare and continues our country's addiction to oil. Keep chasing the dragon! Maybe if we build platforms off of La Jolla and drill in ANWR, we can finally catch that dragon!

BadBob wrote on Aug 2, 2008 10:14 AM:Ride a bike and save $$$. Be frugal and keep driving the price of gas down!
Only vote in Novemeber for representatives that support drilling for oil here in USA!

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