REGION: A changing political landscape

Dems close registration gap with Republicans

By GARY WARTH - Staff Writer | Saturday, August 2, 2008 6:05 PM PDT ∞

SAN DIEGO ---- The number of registered Democrats in San Diego County has pulled within two percentage points of Republicans, narrowing a historically larger gap that has shown a perennial GOP dominance.

According to July figures from the registrar of voters office, Democrats account for about 36 percent of registered voters while Republicans make up about 38 percent of the registered county electorate.

Republicans had held a five-point lead over Democrats since at least 2000, according to figures from the California secretary of state's office.

While trailing in the county overall, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the county's 18 cities. As of July, there were 425,599 Democrats and 404,338 Republicans in the cities.

Democrats now outnumber Republicans in seven out of the 18 cities, three more than during the last presidential election four years ago.

Two cities, Del Mar and La Mesa, became Democratic majorities in recent months.

Aside from Del Mar, however, Republicans still are the majority in all North County cities, although the percentage point difference between the two parties has narrowed.

In Encinitas for example, where Republicans had a four-point lead in 2004, the difference has narrowed to one point.

Democrats account for 35 percent of the registered voters while Republicans make up 36 percent in that city.

The remaining are nonparty affiliated or minor political party members.

Republicans still hold a comfortable majority over Democrats in unincorporated areas.

With 110,800 registered voters, Republicans represent 49 percent of the electorate in the unincorporated area compared to the 62,038 or 27 percent Democrats.

Four years ago, Republicans represented 51 percent of unincorporated voters and Democrats represented 27 percent.

Behind Republicans and Democrats, the third-largest group of registered voters is those who declined to state a party.

About 22 percent of county voters declined to state a party, a 1 percent increase from 2004.

The shift in voter registration does not mean there are more Democrats in San Diego County.

Numbers for Democrats, as well as other parties, have decreased in the past four years. The number of registered voters throughout the county has decreased since 2004, dropping from 1.5 million to 1.3 million, according to county figures.

Number should rise

San Diego County Registrar of Voters Deborah Seiler said the decline is not unusual, as numbers always taper off after election years.

"The peak period is always in advance to the November general election, then it slides backwards as people move, die, or whatever," she said. "And the rate of those people moving doesn't keep up with the influx of new registrations.

"But we predict we'll see the numbers take a big jump by November."

The number of registered voters in the county already is increasing, and Democrats appear to be outpacing Republicans, according to the registration statistics.

The shift may be the result of enthusiasm for Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama or changing demographics throughout the county, according to Carl Luna, a Mesa College political science professor who writes about local politics on his Internet blog, Political Lunacy.

"It could be the Obama factor," he said. "It strikes me that you've had a surge in registration. John McCain isn't going to fire up a lot of Republicans to go out and register."

But after noticing the Democratic trend for about a decade, Luna said the shift could be the result of changing demographics in the county.

"You're adding more Latino voters in San Diego, and Latino voters tend to break Democrat," he said. "We've displaced a lot of the old military economy and replaced it with an information economy, and college graduates tend to break more Democratic than Republican. We're no longer a town of military retirees and retirees in general. These are the big shifts."

GOP rally?

Jonathan Buettner, chief operating officer for the San Diego Republican Party, said his party has focused registration drives on a few races in the county but will expand its efforts as the presidential race heats up.

"We are stepping up as part of the state party and the McCain campaign," he said. "That'll probably demonstrate itself between now and the middle of October."

Tony Krvaric, chairman of the San Diego Republican Party, said it is not too surprising to see the registration gap narrowing.

"The way people register is by national mood," he said. "I don't think anybody would deny that Republicans have been on the defense for a while."

The presidential election will reinvigorate the party, Krvaric predicted.

"Republicans have been in the doldrums, and deservedly so," he said. "With Senator McCain, I think you'll see an invigorated national brand with the Republican Party."

Krvaric also predicted that Republicans will benefit from Proposition 8, the proposed state constitutional amendment to prohibit same-sex marriage on the November ballot.

Jess Durfee, chairman of the San Diego County Democratic Party, said he thinks the momentum is on the Democrats' side.

"I've been watching this very closely," he said. "We're down to a 2 percent gap with the Republicans, and that gap is shrinking very quickly. I think by November, we're going to see the Democratic candidate have more votes than the Republican, which is not something we see in the county."

In Escondido, Democratic Club President Rick Moore said his party still has a challenge ahead of it. Only 29 percent of registered voters in the city are Democrats.

"I'm aware we're behind in Escondido, but there's great pride that La Mesa recently turned blue and Del Mar turned blue," he said, referring to an unofficial color code used for party identifications in national maps. "We have to take pleasure in small steps."

Contact staff writer Gary Warth at (760) 740-5410 or gwarth@nctimes.com.