ECONOMY: County posts job losses for fourth straight month

Economists: Recession becoming more certain, severe

By ZACH FOX - Staff Writer | Friday, September 19, 2008 7:09 PM PDT ∞

San Diego County employers shed more jobs last month and local economists said the region plunged deeper into recession.


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San Diego County lost jobs for the fourth straight month ---- and five out of the last six ---- in August, according to the state's Employment Development Department.

"That, to me, is the definition of a recession," said Kelly Cunningham, an economist with the San Diego Institute for Policy Research. "I don't see anything that would say the economy would turn around any time soon."

The declines in recent months mark the first time the county has lost jobs since 1993.

Overall, employers have cut 5,700 jobs over the last year, pushing the county's unemployment rate to 6.4 percent in seasonally unadjusted numbers, outpacing the national rate of 6.1 percent, according to the state's Employment Development Department.

The county trailed the statewide average, which posted an unemployment rate of 7.6 percent in August.

But several regional economists said the county's unemployment rate is more likely to increase over the next few months, possibly approaching the statewide rate.

"That's probably a worst-case scenario, but in any case people looking for jobs right now are going to have a tough time of it," said Dan Seiver, a finance professor at San Diego State University.

One reason economists see the employment picture deteriorating over the next few months is the state's multibillion-dollar deficit. Over the last year, government jobs have propped up employment numbers. That is bound to change as the state struggles to hold to its $104 billion budget agreed to Friday.

In August however, government jobs posted the biggest gain among all sectors, adding 3,400 jobs over the last year. But the government category fell by 800 employees from July to August ---- a time when employment typically increases as many teachers go back on the payroll.

Also, the retail industry, one of the county's largest employers and one of the economy's largest drivers, contracted 2,900 jobs last month from a year ago. Economists said those losses could grow as surveys show consumers unwilling to spend on nonessential products.

"That might be a sign that we're going to see a real cull in retail," jobs said Alan Gin, an economist with the University of San Diego. "Back-to-school shopping was not very strong, and I think that will translate to a weak Christmas season."

Beyond a drop in retail spending, tourism has experienced instability. A year ago, some economists pointed to the perennial strength of San Diego's tourism economy as a bulwark against recession. Instead, tourism growth has been tepid and insufficient to cover real estate losses through July, the latest month available. The total number of visitors to the county is down 0.6 percent and spending has increased by just 4.2 percent from a year ago ---- not enough to keep pace with inflation at 4.6 percent locally, according to data from the San Diego Convention and Visitors Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Leading the way in job losses were real estate-related sectors, where a severe housing recession has depressed home prices by 30 percent.

Developers have cut back severely on construction and lenders have eliminated mortgage branches. The construction sector led job losses, contracting 7,200 jobs from a year ago, followed by financial companies that cut 4,700 employee positions.

Other sectors that posted growth included educational and health services, growing by 3,300 employees over the last year. Chances are, economists said, that any gains in those two sectors would not be sufficient to stave off continued job losses throughout the year. And they might not continue to show the strength they have so far this year.

"Universities are in difficult strains and those jobs might be going away," said Seiver, the San Diego State professor. "But health care's not going away. We're just getting older and sicker."

San Diego County's tough market, which contains 1.32 million jobs, has changed the dynamics of employment placement agencies. For example, Manpower's Temecula office is no longer running advertisements because of a glut of applicants, said Phil Blair, co-owner of the Temecula and San Diego offices. And at Job Specs, a San Marcos firm, counselors have seen 40 to 50 candidates apply for each posted opening when they used to see six to eight.

"We talk to a lot of people who are very discouraged," said Sandra Quintania, a regional recruiting manager for Job Specs. "We tell them it's just the economy. You can't give up. You just have to keep trying."

Contact staff writer Zach Fox at (760) 740-5412 or zfox@nctimes.com. Read his blog, "On the Realside," at nctimes.com/blogs/minding_your_business.

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futurist wrote on Sep 19, 2008 11:55 AM:Eveyone should work for the govenment- free retirement and healthcare. They take our debt and care for us and tell us how we can act.... Oh- that sounds like China. Many communism is not such a bad idea?

Look out fast food wrote on Sep 19, 2008 12:26 PM:hotel and motel, Americans come looking for work. Everyone better have their papers together or face being reported. Regarding jobs all is fair!

Meanwhile wrote on Sep 19, 2008 3:11 PM:Congress bails out companies while their CEO's walk with millions of cash. Some of which will end up back in Congress campaign funds I am sure. No bail outs. Companies go under better ones will emerge. Dems took over 2 years ago on the cry of change. Well thanks for the change to Mortgage melt down, higher unemployment, companies going under, and I am sure more taxes. And people are even considering Obama?

To meanwhile wrote on Sep 19, 2008 4:02 PM:Nobody reading your posting that is logical will have anything but a laugh with what you say...nothing happens in 2 years that is catastrophic like what just happened. Your blog is pure spin. Everyone knows whether they admit it or not that this problem was the result of republican congress 6yrs, and republican president 8 yrs....Your ideas are a joke and reflect your poor understanding of the world

local osider wrote on Sep 19, 2008 4:07 PM:This county is run by the same republicans in congress that started this whole mess nationally. Corruption is accepted by republicans whithin themselves and the code is to point to someone else for blame...same game...Duke started it, but he got caught...lets start to see some heads roll. Republicans have no shame, remorse or ability to accept that this is their fault,,,,Well I love history and history will show how Obama led our country out of the depths of a situation that the republicans cant even see exists..

Wrong again Repulican dude wrote on Sep 19, 2008 5:41 PM:This mortgage crisis was seeded yearts before the dems took over the congress. It turns out the republicnas controled all branches of the goverment for years before that and created this mess. How you say, by not regulating the very offenders who are now going under. We need good leadership, like they had in ww2 and who got us out of the great depression. What party was that? Hmmm

Get the facts wrote on Sep 19, 2008 5:48 PM:Fact: Democrat leaders have historically turned over the strongest economic conditions when leaving office.

Fact: Historically our nation has been led by democrats, or by other party memebers who believe in democratic ideal (Sorry repubs, Lincoln would shutter to think what you have done with the party he was a memeber of).

WW1 Democrat, WW2 Democrat, Cold war predominantly democrat, Great depression fixed by a democrat. Any theme here...

Scooter wrote on Sep 19, 2008 6:33 PM:To "Get the facts": Any theme here... Absolutely! They have all followed a Republican leader who put in place the results that the Democrats took credit for (a great example is Bill Clinton)! Republicans always get stuck with the mess left from the Democrats (higher taxes, etc.) and take the blame.

To Scooter wrote on Sep 19, 2008 8:31 PM:Are you serious!!! GWB is leaving us in good shape? I am a republican and even I don't buy that. The guy has been the worst president the US has ever seen and the next guy (McCain or Obama) is'nt going to be able to do anything to fix it. What are you smoking?

Gil wrote on Sep 19, 2008 8:34 PM:To meanwhile:
I agree it is interesting that as soon as the Dems get control over congress things fall apart. However, I do think that it is timing. I would like to remind everyone that I did not hear a peep from any Democrat or Republican regarding the irresponsible lending practices of banks. They were all getting richer, just waiting to pass this bill on to the American people. If anyone thinks either side of the aisle cares about America, it is time you open your eyes.

Scooter wrote on Sep 19, 2008 9:54 PM:It is more interesting how republicans try sweeping history under the rug. The econemy was crashing, and there was an unpopular war going on well before the dems won during the last election. They can't be blamed for an econemy that was already sour. I do agree the George Bush is the worst president we have ever had. The mistakes he has made are remarkable. But then again he is only towing the party line on most issues and that is where the fundamental flaws are. We have learned over and over that goverment regulation is not wrong, it keeps these economic crashes from happening. Taxes spent prudently are not wrong, they are needed to run our contry and keep us safe. I vote dem because they have my middle class, family man, christian, charitable interests at heart. Take care of the people, sounds like good policy to me how about you?

Bill wrote on Sep 19, 2008 11:26 PM:A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

We had 3% growth last quarter and still havent had even one negative quarter of growth.

What does this writer mean when he says "deeper" into recession?

This shows you the power of the uneducated media to sway public opinion.

We arent in a recession.

This is just a small sector of our economy and hardly an indicator of the overall picture.

Im doing fine economically because my investments are all diversified.

The middle class people that are hurting can only blame themselves.

Of course, its much easier to blame the government than it is to take personal responsibility.

love the USA wrote on Sep 20, 2008 12:45 AM:Why do we despise the Russian and Chinese, when we are becoming communist ourselves. This week was a major turning point in America for the worst. Its time to reclaim our Constitution!

I am GOP and I have to say that the Bush years were the worse in the History of this country. We have sold out the future of our wonderful country. See you all in the revolution. God help us all.

Club for real growth wrote on Sep 20, 2008 6:50 AM:It doesn't do a lot of good to blame one party or the other for bad economic performance.


Measured by stock indexes, the economy has tended to grow the most strongly when control of Congress and the presidency is split between Dems and GOP. That's because a party with full control goes on a rampage of deficit spending, whether its Republicans buying war toys or Democrats expanding the welfare state. It's fine to thank Clinton for the expansion in the 90s, but you should also thank Gingrich.


I suspect you'd find that split control has the same positive effect on GDP growth or employment if you looked at the data.


By the split-control rule of thumb, the Democrats should have been able to help us avert the disaster that Bush and the GOP set in motion over the previous four years. Their failure says something about their incompetence.


It also says something about the extent to which Americans have been hoodwinked by the Republicans' "all-regulation-is-bad" mantra. It should be obvious that some types of regulation are good and some create more problems than they solve. It's difficult for us as voters to weigh the advantages and disadvantages of any one type of regulation. But we should always try, and when excessive regulation hampers markets for a long period of time, we should remember which party was mainly responsible for imposing it. Ditto for when lax regulation helps to spawn a disasters like the one facing us now.

to Scooter 954 PM wrote on Sep 20, 2008 7:10 AM:Actually, to be accurate democrats typically donate most of their money to social causes, while republicans donate more to helping organizations.

bogie wrote on Sep 21, 2008 10:55 AM:to to Scooter 954 PM

You mean like Joe Obiden gives?

Ed wrote on Sep 21, 2008 11:32 AM:I long for the good old days of 2000 before Cheney and Rove hijacked the country: people had jobs and weren't losing their homes, the country had a surplus, the dollar was strong, gas prices were low, we were respected and had friends overseas, the economy was great, our Constitution was respected, our spies were not outed by our own government, we weren't listed as a nation that tortures prisoners......

to Ed wrote on Sep 21, 2008 4:20 PM:Yes Ed, ignorance is bliss...

Slick Billy wrote on Sep 23, 2008 1:53 AM:I don't think Bill read the article very carefully. His GDP numbers are national, but this article is about the San Diego regional economy. There's no reliable definition of a regional recession, but five of the last six months with net job losses is a pretty clear sign. Bill may want to look up the word "uneducated" in a dictionary.

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