CHARGERS: Matchups vs. New England Patriots

By MIKE SULLIVAN - Staff Writer | Sunday, October 12, 2008 9:08 PM PDT ∞

Chargers on offense

Perhaps the Chargers' offense can just skip the first quarter and proceed directly to the second. The NFL's fourth-highest scoring team (29.6 points per game) has scored only 16 of its 148 points in the opening 15 minutes. RB LaDainian Tomlinson needs 19 rushing yards to reach 11,000 for his career, but he really needs the combination of improved health (his big toe injury has lingered) and better blocking (he has averaged less than 3 yards per carry in three different games) if he's to produce like the player who has won back-to-back NFL rushing titles. With WR Chris Chambers (ankle) unlikely to play, QB Philip Rivers (11 touchdown passes) will be looking for Vincent Jackson (17 receptions for 302 yards) while hoping that the threesome of Craig "Buster" Davis, Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd can make some contributions. The 6-foot-5 Floyd could help in the red zone against New England's smaller cornerbacks (5-11 Deltha O'Neal and 5-9 Ellis Hobbs). SS Rodney Harrison (34 career interceptions) is still going strong and will have partial responsibility for keeping TE Antonio Gates (16 receptions) in check. Keep an eye on DE Richard Seymour, the five-time Pro Bowler, to see if C Nick Hardwick's claim of dirty play by Seymour in last season's AFC Championship Game has any credence. OLBs Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas and ILB Tedy Bruschi are all outstanding veterans on a New England defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in total defense (300.0 yards per game).

Edge: Patriots

Chargers on defense

The Patriots scored an NFL-record 589 points last season and would likely be able to score at will if QB Tom Brady (knee) were able to play. Remember how the Chargers were adamant that playing without LB Shawne Merriman (knee) was a non-issue? Sure have been a lot of hints and whispers lately around Chargers Park that not having Merriman is having a major effect. Gee, and Santa Ana winds might cause wildfires. Denying the Merriman Effect looks pretty silly with the Chargers ranking 28th in total defense (379.0 average yards allowed per game), last in passing defense (265.6) and last in touchdown passes allowed (10). CBs Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer haven't looked so dynamic with the front seven struggling to generate a pass rush, giving opposing quarterbacks more time to find open receivers. Additionally, opposing tight ends have had their way with safeties and linebackers all season long. Patriots QB Matt Cassel (three TDs, three interceptions), though nowhere close to Brady's status, has completed 67.3 percent of his passes, finding WR Randy Moss (17 receptions, 274 yards) on a 66-yard scoring pass last Sunday. Chargers castoff Wes Welker has a team-best 27 receptions. A sign of Cassel's inexperience is how the Patriots have allowed 16 sacks in four games after allowing just 21 all last season. The Chargers desperately need to produce four or five sacks if they are to stymie New England.

Edge: Patriots

Special teams

Both teams have solid kickers and standout kickoff returners, but only the Chargers have Mike Scifres as their punter. Through five games, Scifres has averaged an amazing 52.6 yards (second best in the NFL) with a league-leading 45.1 net average. The field-position difference between Scifres and New England's Chris Hanson (43.9 average, 34.6 net) could prove significant. New England's Hobbs leads the NFL with a 34.2 kickoff return average, with the Chargers' Darren Sproles third at 30.8. Sproles is averaging 10.7 on punt returns; the Patriots' Kevin Faulk is third in the NFL at 15.1. New England K Stephen Gostkowski has made 17 consecutive regular season field-goal attempts and is 10-of-10 this season with nine touchbacks. Nate Kaeding is 9-of-11 on field goals. He has seven touchbacks, but six of them came in the mile-high altitude of Denver.

Edge: Chargers

What to expect

New England seems to have the Chargers' number with three victories in the last 21 months, including two in the playoffs. This is the Patriots' first appearance in San Diego since their comeback victory ---- hit the ground Marlon McCree! ---- in the 2006 postseason. The Chargers certainly don't lack for motivation against the franchise that has become their nemesis and object of envy, but they would be facing a must-win Sunday night whether they were playing the New England Patriots or the Orange Glen Patriots. Lose this game on the Sunday night stage and the Chargers will have a better shot of watching the playoffs in front of big-screen televisions than participating. So expect a desperate, hard-fought effort with Chargers coach Norv Turner (71-90-1 career coaching record) pulling out all the stops. On the other hand, the Patriots haven't crumbled without Brady, have won 12 consecutive road games ---- the second-best streak in NFL history ---- and have adjusted to Pacific time after practicing at San Jose State all week. No matter how you analyze this matchup, it's easier to visualize Bill Belichick (130-82) leaving the field with a smile on his face than Turner.

Pick: Patriots 30, Chargers 23

Other views

Mike Reiss, Boston Globe

Chargers 24, Patriots 23

The Patriots have had the Chargers' number of late, and this doesn't look like the same San Diego club of recent years, so one could make a convincing argument that the recent run of success will continue. With the Patriots continuing to redefine themselves without Brady, it's a tough one to project, but we'll give the Chargers the edge on their home field.

Karen Guregian, Boston Herald

Chargers 21, Patriots 20

While the Pats have taken pains to avoid the back-and-forth travel from consecutive West Coast games by staying in California for the week, the Chargers are more desperate for a win. With Brady, the pick would have been the Pats. Not so this time.