REGION: Bilbray, Leibham release sharply-differing polls in 50th District race

Democrat's shows a near-dead heat; Congressman's shows double-digit lead

By MARK WALKER - Staff Writer | Friday, October 17, 2008 8:09 PM PDT ∞

The 50th Congressional District race between Democrat Nick Leibham and Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray is either a dead heat or a romp for the incumbent, depending on which of two polls released Friday is accurate.

Leibham's poll shows him within 2 percentage points of Bilbray for the seat in the House of Representatives that represents most of North County.

Bilbray's poll shows the congressman with a 13-point lead.

Each poll asked voters for whom they would vote if the election were held the day they were contacted. The names of the candidates also were rotated during the questioning.

Leibham's telephone poll of 400 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a Washington-based firm that has close ties to the Democratic Party. It had a margin of error rate of plus or minus 5 percent.

That poll says Leibham was favored by 42 percent with Bilbray garnering 44 percent. Five percent of the respondents said they planned to vote for Libertarian candidate Wayne Dunlap.

"We are on the verge of winning this," Leibham said Friday. "Barack Obama is turning the 50th District from red to blue, and people are fed up with lifetime politicians and lobbyists such as Brian Bilbray."

Kurt Bardella, a spokesman for the Bilbray campaign, said their telephone poll of 300 likely voters was conducted Sunday and Monday by the Tarrance Group, a firm with GOP ties based just outside Washington, D.C., in Alexandria, Va.

Bilbray was favored by 48 percent of the respondents in that poll with Leibham getting 35 percent. Eight percent of the respondents said they were voting for Dunlap and 9 percent said they remained undecided. That poll had a margin of error rate of nearly 6 percent, the campaign said.

"The congressman has a long record of working with local officials and has always enjoyed a strong base of local support," Bardella said of why the Bilbray poll shows the much higher favorability.

Bilbray was not available for comment.

One of his consultants, Jennifer Jacobs, said Bilbray is unleashing a mail and advertising blitz as the campaign heads into its final two weeks.

"I am certain our opponent well knows that when the voters are informed about the differences and backgrounds of the two candidates, his numbers plummet," she said in a prepared statement.

In addition to differences in their two polls, Leibham and Bilbray also have been at odds over a military issue in recent weeks. Both have trotted out retired members of the military to speak on their behalf in a spat over who is the better friend of active-duty troops and veterans.

For several weeks, the 34-year-old Leibham has attacked Bilbray for opposing an amendment to reauthorize the GI Bill, a vote he said showed the incumbent is no friend of the military.

Bilbray, 56, has fired back, pointing out he was a co-sponsor of legislation that ultimately was passed by Congress and signed into law. The amendment he opposed included a tax increase, which he says is why he opposed it.

The two also have sparred over the financial rescue plan adopted earlier this month by Congress. Bilbray voted against it, saying it did not do enough to address the root causes of the nation's economic woes.

Leibham said he would have voted for the rescue plan because it offered a solid step toward returning stability to the credit markets.

Leibham's campaign got a boost this week when the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced it would provide a fresh infusion of cash along with communications and strategic support.

Neither candidate lacks cash.

Through Sept. 30, Bilbray had raised $1,160,698, including $261,671 between July 1 and Sept. 30. He also reported having $382,375 cash on hand as of the end of September.

Bilbray is a former county supervisor and Imperial Beach mayor and councilman who previously served in the House from 1995-2001.

Leibham, a former prosecutor, has raised an almost equal amount, the bulk coming in the last quarter. His financial disclosure report filed with the Federal Election Commission this week showed he has raised $980,409, with $420,183 flowing in between July 1 and Sept. 30.

Leibham had $333,997 cash on hand at the end of September, the report showed.

As Election Day nears, Leibham has said he believes he will capture enough votes from independents to oust Bilbray from the district heavily dominated by registered Republicans.

As of Oct. 1, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 38,000, according to the latest report from the San Diego County registrar of voters office. Independents numbered 87,286.

Bilbray is seeking his second full two-year term since winning a special election to fill the vacancy created when former Rep. Randy Cunningham resigned in 2005 after pleading guilty to tax evasion and accepting more than $2.4 million in bribes. Cunningham is serving an eight-year sentence in an Arizona federal prison.

Contact staff writer Mark Walker at (760) 740-3529 or mlwalker@nctimes.com.

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Pre-Registration Comments[-]Go to Top

Greg in Oceanside wrote on Oct 17, 2008 10:09 PM:Let's just hope Brian Bilbray wins. His plan to address the birthright citizenship is of the utmost importance to begin the process of addressing the illlegal immigration problem.

He has many other positions on issues that will have a positive impact on citizens here and around the entire country.

More false Polls wrote on Oct 18, 2008 7:11 AM:Bilbray has been a great representative for the 50th district and I have no doubt that he will easily win. The last thing we need is to elect is a tax and spend liberal. At least you should have that view unless your among those that don't pay any.

Jertho in Oceanside wrote on Oct 18, 2008 7:17 AM:I pray voters realize that Mr. Bilbray is the local representative of the Bush Doctrine, which seeks to destroy the freedom our brave men and women have fought and died for.

If he planned to address anything of significance, he would have done so already. Instead, he has chosen to tow the party line at the expense of all Americans, especially our veterans.

He has many other positions on issues that will have a negative impact on citizens here and around the entire world.

Greencinitan wrote on Oct 18, 2008 7:52 AM:If Bilbray had been willing to debate Leibham, as Leibhan had proposed, the voters would have been able to ask questions and learn more about both candidates. Too bad Bilbray has to hide behind mailers and ads ... Why is he afraid of a real debate where we can hear both candidates together and make an informed choice? Aren't information and education the cornerstones of effective democracy?

Vote America wrote on Oct 18, 2008 7:54 AM:This election is about more than the "illegals" that so many one issue Republicans are focused upon. This is how our country got stuck with GW Bush, because of all those one issue religious voters. If voters would have looked further into what they were voting for instead of being herded by the likes of Russ Limbaugh, our country would be in a better place today. Be a thoughtful voter no matter Repub or Dem and vote for what is in the best interest of our country and not just how some radio commentator is cattle herding you to vote. We are now in the season of lies, so do your own thinking and research and don't listen to the Trash being put out at the last minute. Tks...

Bilbray is a Bush-style... wrote on Oct 18, 2008 9:44 AM:republican so who wants him in office? Look at his voting record easily availble on-line. And what is his stance on immigration REALLY? He's made no real movements on any of the measures sd county residents want him to. He talks a good game but he's just another big spending, big talking bushy. We've had enough of that kind of politics.

MisRepresentated Voter wrote on Oct 18, 2008 10:02 AM:So Bilbray loses, what does the 50th gain? A representative who lives here, and isn't tied to Wash DC revolving doors. As supervisor, he voted for the trash plant and called us names he's now conveniently forgotten. If the voters are lame enough to send him back, just think, this is the same republican mentality that sent Duke Cunningham back again and again. It is time for a breath of fresh air, not more Baja Agua.

christimarie wrote on Oct 18, 2008 10:57 AM:I voted for Bilbray in 2004, but this year I will vote for Liebham. Bilbray is rightfully concerned about illegal immigration but cares nothing about the millions of jobs lost to China. He has referred to China as a "valuable trading partner". China is a trade abuser. And remember, none of the Chinese workers pays a dime into our Social Security system. Bush has already sacrificed the American worker on the altar of Globalism. Bilbray is in complete agreement with this.

To Greg wrote on Oct 18, 2008 11:07 AM:You still believe that Billbray is actually going to do something about illegal immigration?

Is that kinda like what he did this last term? Like NOTHING!!

Dream on ohhh obsessive one!

la migra wrote on Oct 18, 2008 12:37 PM:Liebham should have no problem winning with all the ACORN voters registered this year. How many illegals does it take to win? As many as the Democrats can register. Seriously, GWB has been one of the worst Presidents ever, but Bilbray has fought this open borders globalist nonsense. That's why so many liberals hate him.

R-Love wrote on Oct 18, 2008 1:42 PM:More of the Same: McCain and Bilbray
A change: Obama and Leibham

USMC GySgt wrote on Oct 18, 2008 1:56 PM:As a red-blooded patriotic member of the military and Global War On Terrorism veteran, I have no problem with Bilbray's positions with the military. There is a great GI Bill in place now, and benefits for those of us who've served. I don't want my taxes raised any further, like the 'feel-good' Democrats want to do.

The birkenstock-wearing, Prius-driving, latte-drinking, fuzzy-haired liberals have absolutely no clue what Bilbray is about. I've heard him speak (in person) and he has vision, particularly for us here in San Diego.

Comments from Oceanside wrote on Oct 18, 2008 2:39 PM:Much like Brian Bilbray lives outside of the 50th, Oceanside is not even located within our District. I'm glad more people from outside of the 50th are so concerned with this election.

Thank you for your comments, but please keep to your own Congressman.

To USMC Sgt wrote on Oct 18, 2008 7:09 PM:I don't drink lattes, I don't drive a Prius, I don't wear birkenstocks, I don't have a lot of hair left, and I won't vote for Bilbray.
P.S. I'm not a liberal either.

Old Timer wrote on Oct 18, 2008 7:51 PM:Just a little message for USMC. It took all the Liberals and Moderates in Congress to get the great GI Bill passed. Many Republicans like McCain voted against the bill while Reps like Bilbray applied no sway to his other Repubs to change their negitive vote. So when you are evaluating your options, remember not to turn your back on those that cared for your needs when you needed it.

USMC GySgt wrote on Oct 18, 2008 9:13 PM:Old Timer maybe you should retake history. A guy by the name of Warren Atherton, a REPUBLICAN is responsible for the GI Bill.

To USMC Sgt, you have every right to vote for whoever you please, and I serve this country so you can do so. I've heard Bilbray's message and position on a number of topics and see his vision.

Leibham, is an attorney, something we have too much of in this country and politics. Bilbray is a local guy, educated as a tax specialist, someone who isn't perfect, but his heart is in the right place.

billyb wrote on Oct 19, 2008 12:35 PM:name 3 things liberman has done ?? name 3 close fiends?? If we can't, do we know them ??? come to think of it I must re-examine my Obama vote

USMC GySgt wrote on Oct 19, 2008 9:44 PM:billyb, I certainly hope you (and anyone else) re-examine any thoughts to voting for Obama.

Obama is a silver-tongued snake-oil salesman, and an outstanding orator who knows what to say and says anything to elicit emotions. Listen to him very carefully, he comes off like one of those cheap television evangelists. More seriously, Obama has virtually no substance, and has been all talk. Obama is the most liberal Democrat and if anyone with any common sense can see he's moving further to the right each and every day, just to appease the conservatives (and independents).

I grew up in Chicago, and know his type. Look at who he's been associated with, from Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko, the former CEO's of Fannie Mae, and the Lester Crown family. Do the research and it's apparent, he hasn't made very good choices who he associates himself with. These people are either of questionable repute or are outright greedy.

As my father would say, "I can't trust that guy as far as I can throw our house!"

USMC Spouse wrote on Oct 20, 2008 4:15 PM:USMC GySgt & Sgt,
Mr. Leibham is a true local - not a carpet bagger like Mr. Bilbray using his mothers Carlsbad address.
Mr. Leibham served as a criminal prosecutor, as well as has an MBA and a dual degree in history and civics. Although Mr. Leibham is a Democrat - he is a true fiscal conservative, unlike the majority of our sitting government. I have to address as well, how you, USMC GySgt, rectify Gen. Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama - surely you don't think General Powell is gullible or ignorant? For the record, I would have voted for McCain in 2000 - but he does not stand for the things he once did.

50thLocal wrote on Oct 21, 2008 6:52 PM:I have lived in the 50th district for over 20 years now, I have met Representtive Bilbray's children but never seen him in the community. Rep. Bilbray has not done enough for the citizens of our district. Rep. Bilbray voted no on H.R. 5 a bill designed to lower interest rates for student loans for our children. Bilbray also voted no on H.R. 6 a bill that would have repealed tax cuts for large oil companies and reinvest in alternative energy sources even though oil companies were making extraordinary profits. Bilbray voted to allow tax breaks for large oil companies, pouring U.S. dollars into foreign countries, while his district citizens were forced to deal with the rising price of gas.

We need a Representative who will protect the 50th district's coastline from offshore drilling. The economy receives a huge benefit from the tourism attracted by our beautiful and unique beaches.
Please choose your Representative's wisely! We need someone who will make a difference for the citizens of the 50th district not a person who will occupy a seat, without solving any problems but still receiving a paycheck and kickbacks from lobbyist. We need a Representative who will fight pork barrel spending.

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