ECONOMY: State data show SD job market weakens yet again

By ZACH FOX - Staff Writer | Friday, October 17, 2008 11:57 PM PDT ∞

San Diego County lost jobs for the fifth-straight month in September as the economy continued to slump, according to data released Friday by the state's Economic Development Department.

The data pushed one prominent economist closer to joining colleagues in declaring a regional recession.

Employers reported 5,100 fewer jobs in the county last month compared with the same time a year ago, according to the state data. The county has lost jobs for six of the last seven months.

Here are other highlights in the data:

-- Construction and financial-related jobs showed the biggest declines from a year ago. However, the retail sector had one of its worst months this year ---- an indication that consumers have cut back on spending, one of the main drivers of the local economy. From a year ago, construction companies slashed 6,800 jobs as retail businesses dropped 3,000 jobs.

-- Losses within the financial services sector slowed last month while retail job cuts have accelerated ---- suggesting that employment weakness in the region might be shifting from housing-related to other sectors.

-- Several economists, from University of San Diego to Chapman University, have said that San Diego County has been in a recession for the last few months.

But Marney Cox, economist for the San Diego Association of Governments, said he was waiting on the call because certain job sectors had started to stabilize.

Friday's report forced him to shift his thinking, he said.

"September's numbers lead me to believe that the turn of events nationwide likely will have an impact locally to the point where, if there was a stabilizing trend, it has been knocked off its axis," Cox said. "We were sort of riding along the edge. ... This pushes us a lot closer to it."

Three sectors posted significant job gains from a year ago: educational and health services, tourism businesses and government jobs. But that growth was insufficient to carry jobs positive for the entire county and will unlikely prevent future job losses, Cox said.

What happens to government jobs, one of the county's largest sources of employment, is unknown as Sacramento faces a deficit. It leaves analysts wondering whether government job cuts are coming.

"You would think so, but they seem to be able to keep borrowing money to pay for that," said Jonathan Dienhart, director of published research for Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, an Orange County analysis firm. "Honestly, I thought we would have been broke a couple years ago."

A bigger concern than government job losses, Cox said, is the decline in sales tax revenue, which is fundamental to the budgets of municipalities.

Cox said he expects sales taxes across the county to decline by 4 percent from a year ago. In the middle of San Diego County's last recession in the early 1990s, sales tax revenue fell by only 3.5 percent per year, he said.

"This is a big deal," Cox said. "If things don't improve, that would put San Diego in a recession starting this quarter and into at least the first quarter of '09."

Previously, Cox had pointed to the household employment survey, in which more people reported working out of home or starting new businesses than a year ago. But that increase has fallen recently.

Still, it helped push the unemployment rate down minimally from an upwardly revised 6.5 percent in August to 6.4 percent last month.

San Diego County's unemployment rate was higher than the national rate of 6 percent but lower than California's 7.5 percent.

Contact staff writer Zach Fox at (760) 740-5412 or zfox@nctimes.com.

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Pre-Registration Comments[-]Go to Top

Man Club of Escondido wrote on Oct 17, 2008 12:12 PM:To save money, I'm going to start cooking with truffle oil rather than buying truffles. If that's not enough, I'll cut back on wine pairings at restaurants and just buy a bottle.

Old Timer wrote on Oct 17, 2008 12:53 PM:Southern California is fortunate to have so many military bases and their payrolls to help them through hard times. These bases combined with higher education facilities, medical facilites and a large amount of government employment will create a foundation in the SoCal economy. Because of the mismanagement by the government of the last eight years, people will need to get us to being poorer, but SoCal will survive, even if with less wealth than in the past.

to Man Club wrote on Oct 17, 2008 12:59 PM:If the economy "tanks" even further than you're planning for, you can go from buying wine in a bottle to buying wine in a box. Beyond that, of course, there's no hope. I think resorting to truffle oil is in the spirit that made this country what it is today. Need I say more?

Buying wine in wrote on Oct 17, 2008 2:40 PM:the box? We will be buying wine off the shelf, Thunderbird.

Franko the cat wrote on Oct 17, 2008 3:05 PM:I plan to distill gin in my bathtub.

Greg in Oceanside wrote on Oct 17, 2008 5:16 PM:Maybe there's a silver-lining to the "down-turn" in the economy. Hopefully more and more hordes of illegal aliens will self-deport themselves to their country of origin.

Jet wrote on Oct 17, 2008 5:53 PM:Remember when during the Clinton years, there was peace and prosperity? I don't either!!!

Roberto1 wrote on Oct 17, 2008 5:56 PM:Hopefully McCain-Palin can pull it off and get the economy back on track.

PARTY HEARTY wrote on Oct 18, 2008 7:48 AM:I am going to work for AIG and party hearty!

Please send to Barry.. wrote on Oct 18, 2008 8:15 AM:Hawaii ending universal child health care

HONOLULU – Hawaii is dropping the only state universal child health care program in the country just seven months after it launched.

Gov. Linda Lingle's administration cited budget shortfalls and other available health care options for eliminating funding for the program. A state official said families were dropping private coverage so their children would be eligible for the subsidized plan.

"People who were already able to afford health care began to stop paying for it so they could get it for free," said Dr. Kenny Fink, the administrator for Med-QUEST at the Department of Human Services. "I don't believe that was the intent of the program."

State officials said Thursday they will stop giving health coverage to the 2,000 children enrolled by Nov. 1, but private partner Hawaii Medical Service Association will pay to extend their coverage through the end of the year without government support.

"We're very disappointed in the state's decision, and it came as a complete surprise to us," said Jennifer Diesman, a spokeswoman for HMSA, the state's largest health care provider. "We believe the program is working, and given Hawaii's economic uncertainty, we don't think now is the time to cut all funding for this kind of program."

Hawaii lawmakers approved the health plan in 2007 as a way to ensure every child can get basic medical help. The Keiki (child) Care program aimed to cover every child from birth to 18 years old who didn't already

Oh My Goodness wrote on Oct 18, 2008 9:05 AM:Heaven forbid that government jobs would be lost! I mean, what a crime that government workers would have to suffer from the same fiscal irresponsiblity and mismanagement by our elected officials as those who pay their salaries.

MVet wrote on Oct 18, 2008 2:12 PM:It may have been argued when the economy was enjoying a boom, that there was a case for an "open immigration policy" When we're moving into a recession, the length of which we do not yet know, the immigration policy suitable for a boom is totally unsuitable for a recession."
I think this could be a significant turning point. I think the economic crisis has shown up the weakness of uncontrolled immigration. There has to be a balance between the number of people coming in and the number of people leaving
The government has recognized the link between immigration and population. The government have been in denial about that for years. As our population rapidly climbs towards 400 million (in our lifetime), we must stop the uncontrolled inflow.

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