ECONOMY: Fewer people moving to North County

Demographic shift could further depress house prices, retail sales, economists say

By ZACH FOX - Staff Writer | Saturday, October 18, 2008 8:07 PM PDT ∞

North County's population dropped last year ---- a development that economists said last week was both a symptom of the region's sluggish economy and a potential cause for severe regional recession.

Data released last month by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that the biggest reason for the decline was a drop in newcomers: 17 percent fewer people moved into North County last year ---- down from 113,000 in 2006 to 93,700 in 2007.

"The unemployment rate locally started surging in June 2007, so I think that was when the economy officially started weakening," said Alan Gin, an economics professor with the University of San Diego. "With fewer employment prospects and prices still relatively high, you would expect to see fewer people moving into North County."

Though 2008 statistics are not yet available, lower migration numbers probably continued through 2008, economists said. That conclusion was supported by a report released last week by Mayflower, the national moving company, which showed that of its moves 1,162 people moved out of the county, 35 percent higher than the 863 families who moved in through August of this year.

However, U-Haul reported that it moved slightly more people in than out. Gin said the discrepancy is probably a matter of distance ---- people tend to use U-Haul for shorter trips and Mayflower for longer ones. San Diego County's job market has fared better than the state of California but worse than the national average.

Employment numbers have worsened since 2007; on Friday, the state's Employment Development Department reported that San Diego County lost jobs in September for the fifth straight month.

What's more, consumer spending has been falling, leading some analysts to forecast further job losses and economic deterioration.

"We haven't seen the peak of it. Most of the pain is in front of us, not behind us," said Marney Cox, economist for the San Diego Association of Governments.

Economists said weak jobs reports mean the region's population might have decreased even more this year. Further, another reason people leave cities ---- foreclosure ---- has doubled in North County during 2008 from a year ago, according to data from ForeclosureRadar, a Contra Costa County research firm.

If the one-year drop becomes a trend, a falling population could heighten the risk of a painful economic spiral, economists said.

-- Cities across the region already have started to feel the most direct effect of a depressed population ---- less sales tax revenue, according to government reports.

-- Fewer people mean fewer house buyers, which could further depress real estate prices that have already declined by 30 percent from a 2005 peak, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

-- Fewer consumers could further hurt retail sales, meaning less opportunity for businesses and more job losses, analysts said.

"That's definitely the worry right now ---- that the weak economy is just going to reinforce itself through even lower economic activity," Gin said.

Of North County cities, Escondido posted the biggest drop in new residents. In 2007, about 18,000 residents moved into the city, down 39 percent from the number of new residents in 2006, according to the Census Bureau.

One of the causes was a drop-off in immigrants, down 91 percent from 2006. But while it represented the largest percentage drop, immigration represented a small portion of the decline in newcomers.

Far fewer people moved to Escondido from San Diego. In total, 12,000 fewer residents moved to Escondido in 2007 than 2006; the number of residents relocating to the city from within the county dropped by 7,650. The number of residents moving to Escondido from another country fell by about 1,500.

All five North County cities that the Census surveyed ---- Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, San Marcos and Vista ---- reported fewer migrants.

But only Escondido and San Marcos saw their overall populations decline as the other cities posted significant growth in the number of residents who have lived there for one year or longer. Still, other cities posted minimal growth and the losses were large enough to pull North County's population down 1.5 percent from 2006 to 2007.

Carlsbad's population was the most stable, posting just a 2 percent drop in new residents and a 0.5 percent increase in its overall population.

That makes sense, said economists, because foreclosures in Carlsbad have been rare while proliferating in lower housing cost areas such as Escondido and San Marcos, forcing residents to search for cheaper housing outside of North County.

"If you lose your job, it's a heckuva lot more expensive to live here than elsewhere," Cox said. "Things like your unemployment benefits, your savings can take you a lot further elsewhere than it would in San Diego."

Cost of living was a factor in Melanie Powell's decision to move from Oceanside to Billings, Mont. She packed up her things Friday.

Though she had a stable job as an accountant with no employment lined up in Montana, she was confident in finding work and wanted to relocate to be closer to her family and find a house she could afford.

"I love it in San Diego," Powell said. "Just the thought of ever being able to afford a place by myself, it just doesn't seem like that is going to be possible in the near future, if ever."

Contact staff writer Zach Fox at (760) 740-5412 or zfox@nctimes.com. Read his blog, "On the Realside," at nctimes.com/blogs/minding_your_business

Previous

More Stories

Tags: Top NCT Business Local

Bookmark and Share

Ads by Yahoo!

Advertisement

Pre-Registration Comments[-]Go to Top

How Funny wrote on Oct 19, 2008 3:57 AM:A laundry list of the negative effects of a lower population, but ZERO mention of the positive effects of lower population. The quality of life is WAY UP for those of us who choose to life a comfortable but frugal (sustainable)lifestyle. Less traffic, less pollution, less crowds on the beach. Yeah, there is an up side that you bean counters fail to realize in your race for the almighty buck.

money isnt everything wrote on Oct 19, 2008 9:00 AM:you got it right " how funny". I live on less than 50k a year and own a condo. I got it by being frugal. I am glad less people are moving/staying here !! Not everyone in the nation can squeeze into one state because it has good weather. I am a native and rarely meet others who were actually born here! Growing up here (60 & 70's) was the best as we were not over populated then.

Bill wrote on Oct 19, 2008 9:29 AM:I agree with How Funny, For every story about loss of jobs, loss of homes, less tax revenue.....I show you many benifits to those of us that lived responible credit free lives.
To all the middle and lower class families that lived on credit trying to "act" rich with your big SUV, new McMansion, and dinners out...your loss in your fault. Learn your lesson and don't expect many of us to want to help you out. LIVE WITHIN YOUR MEANS. It's time to invest in education for our children, infrastructure and energy self sufficiency.

bird wrote on Oct 19, 2008 10:31 AM:I agree with all the above comments.... I hope more and more people move out.... Don't let the door hit you on the way out! Good for me and the environment.

Hee Hee wrote on Oct 19, 2008 11:34 AM:Lets see...I grew up in North County and have seen and heard all the negatives and positives of our county. The funniest is when people buy new homes, they start to complain about the noise from the trains or the "war games" from nearby Pendleton.
Did they not check before buying?
North County is a beautiful place to live. It's too bad it's being ruined by every other builder who sees a small piece of land and want to develop on it. How about taking care of the existing problems? Crime, outpour of illegals taking our benefits, etc. I do not blame anyone taking their hard earned money and moving elsewhere where it is affordable. Talk about prejudice in your own back yard?! Unless you have bucks....

fred wrote on Oct 19, 2008 11:56 AM:Unless your passion is shopping, surfing, or golfing, it probably doesn't make much sense to pay the hefty premium to live here.

la costa resident wrote on Oct 19, 2008 1:01 PM:Less people, lower home prices, less traffic...........sounds like good news to me!

Joe wrote on Oct 19, 2008 2:56 PM:I saw a sign in the window at Broadway and Grand the other day. I stopped by today while at the street fair and took a picture of it. 3 questions on a richard barron campaign poster.

Is Escondido better off now than 4 years ago?

NO! We continue throwing our money at people who have no regard for our laws...


Are you better off then 4 years ago?

YES! I continue to do things that better myself and will keep doing them.


Has your quality of life improved?

While my quality of life has improved, I see many who are in the downward spiral, due to the housing market, the economy and the fact that they have to continue to pay high taxes to support people who come to this country illegally.

Further down Grand I see a couple of Latina women sitting in a booth, under a banner that read something like this...No human is illegal. I really wanted to talk to them and agree whole heartedly with the statement and ask them why it didn't go further, saying...but the things they do can be!!

richard, olga, we don't need more of these people, we need to get the ones that are here now to go home, to the country they love.

Firemen, why would you want us to vote for two people, for city council, that don't believe the other should be elected. That doesn't make real good sense to me.

Now, if you were the cops, I could see this... as it would be a form of job security... seeing that you'd have to be at every council meeting to stop the fights between the two of them!

I could have gone on and on with this, but I'll be lucky if anyone else sees this, as it's not in line with whoever runs things at this paper.

Al wrote on Oct 19, 2008 3:50 PM:Less means more! Less Illegal's, less lines in the stores, less cars on the crowded streets, less crime, less development.
Please, give us less!

To Joe wrote on Oct 19, 2008 11:04 PM:Got duct tape?

Then self-apply. Otherwise, I'm sure some volunteers would line up! We don't need to hear your I Love Gallo chant!

BTW did you see the BIG ANTI GALLO SIGN! IT WAS SO COOL! I JUST WISH IT HAD ABED'S NAME NEXT TO IT!

I MEAN WHAT THE HECK DID ABED DO TO ENSURE THE FIREFIGHTERS WERE STAFFED PROPERLY - NOTHING, THAT'S WHAT! HE WAS ALL ABOUT THE CHARITABLE FOUNDATION (WHICH IS A GOOD FOUNDATION, BUT NOT MORE IMPORTANT THAN FIREFIGHTERS)!! CHECK OUT THE 5-14-08 CITY COUNCIL MEETING - YOU WILL SEE FOR YOURSELF - ABED DID ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO HELP THE FIREFIGHTERS!!

VOTE FOR RICHARD & OLGA - IN THIS ECONOMY WE NEED THEM!

P.S. HOW MUCH WAS THE CITY'S SURPLUS THIS YEAR? OHHH...I CAN HEAR YOU SAYING "WE DIDN'T HAVE A SURPLUS...WE HAD A DEFICIT" - thanks to self-named "fiscal conservative" Abed and "foot in his mouth" Gallo!! Are you familiar with the $49,000 dollars down the toilet parking study? If not, you need to read up!

BTW, you are "way out there" if you think the only ones that left were illegals. But, you don't care...because: IT'S ALL ABOUT YOU!

CA Expatriat wrote on Oct 20, 2008 1:57 AM:As a Californian living on the East Coast - and there are lots of us in this area, I'm often homesick for my home town of San Diego. If I hadn't been transfered out here, I might have moved anyway. Money isn't everything and I appear to be of the same age. I too, miss those days when California was much less crowded, people were friendlier and politer. I also remember the wave of idiots from New York and similar who came out to California and essentially ruined it with their welfare entitlement mentality. Get rid of welfare and California will go back to the way we all remember it, guaranteed.

JimRT wrote on Oct 20, 2008 6:19 AM:To "Fred" - You left off a passion, mine, I "grew up here". There are few places like it. I don't see the hefty premium. I guess being a native I am use to it.

Skip wrote on Oct 20, 2008 6:51 AM:There were 200 Million people in the United States when I grew up. (1960's).

Today we have passed 300 Million people.

In our lifetimes the population is expected to pass 400 Million.

The OverPopulation Explosion is insane, Enjoy the decrease while you have it.

According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the resident population of the United States, projected to 10/20/08 at 13:49 GMT (EST+5) is

305,456,836.

http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html

To all of the Olga wrote on Oct 20, 2008 8:04 AM:fans, two questions? One, why doesn't she use her husbands who is or was an Escondido Policeman's last name? And two, why isn't the Escondido Police Department behind her? No smear, just questions I want answered before I vote.

over population wrote on Oct 20, 2008 8:16 AM:yeah people breed like rabbits ! I totally love having ONE CHILD !

Not my fault wrote on Oct 20, 2008 9:00 AM:I owned a house in the early 2000's. I sold it, made a lot of money on it, and watched housing prices skyrocket. I bought a bigger house in order to avoid being priced out eventually. I was only able to secure an adjustable loan. When I asked, "what happens when the adjustable is up and the payment goes up too far for me to afford it?" The lender said, "Oh don't worry, there will be plenty of programs and loans available so you can keep the home." Well, I was duped. So it's not my fault. And now I expect someone to bail me out. Those of you who want me to lose everything are nuts!

Article should read wrote on Oct 20, 2008 9:00 AM:"Fewer LEGAL people moving to North County"

A benefit wrote on Oct 20, 2008 9:54 AM:of decreasing numbers of immigrants is the corresponding decrease in welfare benefit applications. Bad for the tax and spend politicians, but good news for small government, fiscal conservatives - if there are any of us still out there...

ATTENTION TO JOE wrote on Oct 20, 2008 9:58 AM:TYPING IN ALL CAPS IS YELLING! Please remove the caps lock and type in a normal matter - that way people may actually read your post rather then skip right over it. You might have made some great points, but I didn't read them because I didn't want to be yelled at. Calm down

moderator wrote on Oct 20, 2008 11:04 AM:It is now eleven o'clock and despite my best effort no comments have been posted since "Article should read" at nine o'clock. What is the malfunction?

Bill wrote on Oct 21, 2008 10:11 AM:“‘I love it in San Diego,’ Powell said. ‘Just the thought of ever being able to afford a place by myself, it just doesn’t seem like that is going to be possible in the near future, if ever.’”

This is a huge reason why lower home prices are a good thing! Despite large declines, San Diego prices are still scaring away qualified workers. If prices eventually settle out at affordable levels, a young, vibrant workforce will lay down roots and plant the seeds for a recovery to long-term economic prosperity.

Registered Comments[-]Go to Top

Advertisement

Videos