HOUSING: Price declines steepen, delay recovery
By ZACH FOX - Staff Writer | ∞
NCT Staff
NCT Staff San Diego County house prices declined sharply in August, dampening hopes that the region's real estate recession was nearing a close, according to a report released Tuesday.
Real estate prices in the county fell by 2.3 percent in one month and 25.8 percent from the same time a year ago, according to the New York-based Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index, one of the most closely watched indicators because it measures sales against the previous price of the same house.
After peaking in November 2005, San Diego County's housing prices have tumbled 32.8 percent.
Lower-priced houses have led the drop. From that peak, here is the movement of the county's three tiers:
-- Houses priced less than $342,452 fell by 42 percent.
-- Houses between $342,452 and $501,477 declined by 33 percent.
-- Houses more than $501,477 dropped by 22 percent.
County house prices dropped most severely from October 2007 through April. But the last three data reports from May through July showed the price decline had slowed to about 1.5 percent per month in a possible sign that the price drops were nearing an end.
Tuesday's report showed that was not the case, Maureen Maitland, vice president of index analysis for Standard & Poor's, said Tuesday in a phone interview.
"On the annual basis, it is a record low" for depreciation, she said. "At this point there is nothing in the data that is saying there is a turnaround." At the same time, seasonality ---- more houses sell in summer months ---- might be cause for the greater depreciation in August versus July and June, Maitland said.
Therefore, while August's report showed that a recovery was not imminent, it indicated that the real estate recession only persisted; it did not accelerate, she said.
Also, San Diego County did not see as much depreciation as San Francisco, pushing the county out of the five biggest price drops in the nation. The median house price in North County is now $430,000, down 36 percent from a June 2007 peak of $667,000.
In order, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, San Francisco and Los Angeles posted the biggest price declines from the same time a year ago, followed by San Diego County.
During the runup, the low-end tier significantly outperformed the high end. August marked the third straight month that the high-end tier appreciated more than the low end when compared to 2000 levels. It is the first time since February 2000 that the high end outperformed the low.
The overall market's decline of 25.8 percent for the year ending in August was the biggest drop on record since Standard & Poor's started the index in 1987. It was the 17th straight month that a new year-over-year record had been set.
The index's 10-city composite of the nation's largest metropolitan areas, which includes San Diego County, also posted a record decline of 17.7 percent off the level a year ago. It was the 11th straight month for a new record decline on the national composite.
Contact staff writer Zach Fox at (760) 740-5412 or zfox@nctimes.com. Read his blog, "On the Realside," at nctimes.com/blogs/minding_your_business.
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Dwonturn wrote on Oct 28, 2008 3:25 PM:Why are low house prices so bad?
One would think that increased affordability would energize the economy. More houses = more home furnishings, appliances, landscaping, remodeling etc.
High prices seem to benefit the 6 perceters more than anyone else.
More to go wrote on Oct 28, 2008 7:32 PM:Most people don't want to hear this, but some house prices are still higher then they should be. I think that there is still 10% down to go and then holding at that level until the housing market in San Diego County flat lines for a year or so. With no wage increases, layoffs from a recession and no special low loans rates - who will buy except for the investors and the wealthy?
truth wrote on Oct 28, 2008 8:18 PM:no one will buy until the rent market will sustain the cost of the homes in the black. Appreciation in the next 3 to 5 years will be non existant or minimal. there is still great risk of losing money. If you don't believe me, just go out and buy now or listen to a Realtor. I dare you.
NSShirlock wrote on Oct 29, 2008 3:20 AM:There is a quality of life issue here. A house is a building. How is the neighborhood? Is it safe? Is it close to what you need and want? Will there be water available at a reasonable cost? Only time will tell and each of us will need to weigh our priorities. I garden. Water is big. The west coast is losing its title as paradise for me. Overcrowding is also a deciding factor.
Gil wrote on Oct 29, 2008 6:36 AM:This is all the fault of Bush and Clinton. Their flawed policies have led us down this path. Soon, when Obama is in office, he will outlaw property rights and ownership. Everything will be the property of the state, even your brains!
John E wrote on Oct 29, 2008 7:19 AM:There was a very good reason that one traditionally had to make a 20% down payment in cash when buying a house, and why one had to commit to high enough monthly payments to amortize principal and interest over a finite period, such as 15, 20, 25, or 30 years. The borrower wanted to avoid foreclosure and eventually to own the home outright by retirement, and the lender wanted to collect a regular monthly payment.
Had we stuck with this time-tested paradigm, housing prices would not have been artifically inflated by demand induced by zero-down, interest-only, balloon-payment, teaser-rate, and other loans which never should have been made. Couple this with the whole derivatives market and the over-rating of bonds backed by marginal mortgages, and one has a recipe for disaster.
I do concur with Gil that this started under Clinton and continued Bush, with control of Congress see-sawing between the Democrats and the Republicans, so this is truly a bipartisan screw-up.
Doesnt matter wrote on Oct 29, 2008 8:42 AM:whose 'theory' is right, folks are suffering and not just those who chose teaser rates, put nothing down and then bought fancy cars and electronics. MANY hardworking, honest folks bought with money down, verified income, etc. Hit with rising prices, job layoffs, and then the downturn,these folks are NOT the cause, but the victims of the greedy lenders 'on the other side' of the coin. Sadly,those who had hoped to 'retire' now can't. Not only is their home worth much less, their 401K and even savings accounts are almost gone. Those are the ones I fee sad for, not the young who can wait this out. And of course, the 'government' will only help the ones in foreclosure, not the folks who continue to do whatever to pay their mortgage. NOT FAIR!
retirement wrote on Oct 29, 2008 8:58 AM:seems to be a thing of the past for us huh ? John E. nails it though and woo-hoo...my place is close to being paid off !!
Old Timer wrote on Oct 29, 2008 9:23 AM:I think that Gli's brain is already the property of Rush Limbaugh & company. 6:36AM Post) The problem was part Dem & Repub political, but also the greed that festered for so many years, all of us running up debt, the big SUV & big home mentality. Like the earth, economics operates best in balance and we have been running out of balance for a long time. Markets need to correct backto balance. This is how America has always worked so blame Wall Street & the politicians, supply side economics, but blame yourself as well.
Old Coot wrote on Oct 29, 2008 10:10 AM:IT's that damn Kennedy's fault! We never should have put a boozing Irishman in thw White House!
They are saying wrote on Oct 29, 2008 12:16 PM:it is better to walk away from your home. Save up your mortgage and buy a fire sale new home. Awwww, makes you excited about the economy. We are lucky to have Washington DC and all of the politicans involed!
Karl wrote on Oct 29, 2008 6:01 PM:Are we the only ones that took out a zero down and are not at risk of foreclosure? We borrowed the down against my wife's calpers retirement. We bought in 1996 with zero down on a 15 year and have 3 years left, Yeehaaa!
Gil wrote on Oct 29, 2008 6:01 PM:Hey, don't get mad at me. I was just saying that when JC, I mean Hussein, I mean Barry is in power, we won't have these problems.
Nice wrote on Oct 29, 2008 7:00 PM:Gil the only problem you will have is how to loosen the straight jacket your in to type another winger comment. BTW Gil, say hello to your mother for me.
Glib and funny not wrote on Oct 29, 2008 7:26 PM:I do not normally read a lot of comments but I have read enough to know that some have nothing better to do than comment. They have gotten to know each other well enough to be personal and in some ways that is OK. Even on opposite sides they find jocularity with one and another. The sad, and I mean really sad thing is the person who does not have empathy for those who have not made it. There is a lack of understanding on their good fortune and for simply being in the right place at the right time. I find that the biggest difference between a republican and a democrat is this inablility to actually walk in another's shoes. It is not until the fire destroys the home, or the lack of a stop light at a developement kills your daughter, or the wrong war kills your husband, that a republican understands what others go through. If it does not personally affect them they care less and blame the others for their plight. It is an interesting observation but as I read the comments the truths come out. This housing crises is terrible and while some deserve it for fiscal irresponsibility, others have lost their jobs. Some have had medical insurance or other porblems forced on them. A lot of things can come into play and it is not funny. I guess when you have yours and others are struggling it might be funny and not your problem. But than I am not a republican.
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