REGION: Violent crime reaches 10-year low, agency finds

Regional planning agency worries about economy's impact on crime

By SARAH GORDON - Staff Writer | Friday, October 31, 2008 7:10 PM PDT ∞

Violent crime countywide reached a 10-year low during the first half of 2008, according to a report released this week by the San Diego Association of Governments, a regional planning agency.

Law enforcement agencies regularly report raw crime numbers to SANDAG, whose Criminal Justice Research Division analyzes the data and publishes reports.

The agency found that property crime across the county dropped in the first half of 2008 compared with the same period last year. Most North County cities mirrored the regional crime trends.

The regional planning agency used the report's release to caution residents that a "perfect storm" of economic problems could lead to more crime.

Rising unemployment, the foreclosure crisis and declining public revenues may all hurt public safety, the agency said.

"We thought it was timely to look at this and address the issue that's on everybody's mind," said senior research analyst Sandy Keaton.

Historically, the region has seen a strong correlation between unemployment and property crimes, the agency said.

Keaton said that some studies show that in hard times, people are more likely to commit crimes.

Adding to the increased risk for crime are the unprecedented number of foreclosures, which may leave neighborhoods blighted and crime-prone, the agency noted.

Keaton said it is not clear whether the foreclosures have led to more crime so far. She said SANDAG is studying that possibility.

The agency also warned that a weak housing market and a slowdown in consumer spending are typically followed by a decrease in public revenue that supports crime prevention and law enforcement.

Keaton said it is unclear whether the flagging economy will affect crime and law enforcement or whether the region's crime drop will continue as it did in the first half of the year.

The rate of violent crimes ---- defined in the report as the number of robberies, homicides, rapes and aggravated assaults per 1,000 people ---- dropped 8 percent between January and June compared with the same period in 2007.

The trend was mirrored in almost every North County city, which in most cases experienced a greater drop in violent crimes than the regional average. Only Poway, with one of the lowest violent crime rate in the county already, saw no change.

The region's property crime rate, which includes burglary, theft and car theft, fell by 9 percent in the first half of 2008 compared with the first half of 2007, the report says. Just a few North County cities saw an increase in property crime.

Vista, for example, saw a 19 percent rise in property crimes, with 1,332 such crimes reported in the city of 95,770 in the first half of 2008, compared to 1,114 in the first half of 2007, the report said.

Vista Sheriff's Station Capt. Tim Curran said he wasn't sure why property crimes had increased. He said he has asked the station's crime analyst to break down the numbers to help him determine what might reverse the trend.

But he cautioned that the increase could come from more people reporting crimes rather than more crimes actually occurring. He thought that Vista's emphasis on community-oriented policing had boosted public trust and crime reports this year.

In Ramona, a city of 36,223, property crime spiked in the first half of 2008 compared with the same period in 2007.

In the first half of 2008, there were 249 property crimes reported compared with 173 in the first half of 2007. With only a small increase in population, the city's property crime rate grew by 44 percent.

But sheriff's Sgt. Mike Strong said that one serial thief may have been responsible for the increase in property crime, and she was arrested in July. He expects far fewer property crime reports in the second half of the year.

Several law enforcement leaders noted that people can take simple measures to keep their things safe from thieves.

Poway sheriff's Capt. Todd Frank said that in that city, 41 percent of all thefts from cars occurred when cars were unlocked.

Carlsbad Police Department spokeswoman Lynn Diamond said she was worried that people would become complacent about locking doors and windows because of the region's continued drop in crime. She agreed with SANDAG that the poor economy could cause an increase in crime.

"I think it would be really beneficial for us to point out that while these midyear numbers look really good, they are retrospective," she said. "We're ripe for a steep increase unless we get ahead of it now."

Contact staff writer Sarah Gordon at (760) 740-3517 or sgordon@nctimes.com.

Violent Crime Rate, per 1,000, January through June 2008

CITY Rate Percent change over first half of 2007

Carlsbad 1.89 -46%

Escondido 3.65 -25%

Oceanside 4.40 -17%

Del Mar 1.31 no change

Encinitas 1.69 -24%

Poway 1.68 no change

San Marcos 13 -40%

Solana Beach 1.49 no change

Vista 4.84 -10%

Fallbrook 1.84 -35%

Ramona 2.10 -9%

Valley Center 3.43 -26%

SAN DIEGO COUNTY: 3.90 -8%

Property Crime Rate, per 1,000, January through June 2008

CITY Rate Percent change over first half of 2007

Carlsbad 24.12 -6%

Escondido 28.40 -5%

Oceanside 23.40 -5%

Del Mar 31.00 -37%

Encinitas 16.10 -17%

Poway 16.55 12%

San Marcos 23.26 -5%

Vista 27.82 19%

Fallbrook 19.94 -1%

Ramona 2.10 -9%

Valley Center 19.88 -6%

SAN DIEGO COUNTY: 26.95 -9%