REGION: Earthquake drill set for Thursday

1 million participants signed up in San Diego, Riverside counties

By DAVE DOWNEY - Staff Writer | Sunday, November 9, 2008 4:09 PM PST ∞

Olive Hill Elementary School fifth-graders hang on as books, cups and mock electronic equipment falls to the ground as the are shook up in a earthquake simulator that was brought to the campus Thursday. The County demonstration is designed to show residents and school children what a real earthquake might look like, and to encourage participation in a community drill coming up next week called the Great Southern California ShakeOut. (Photo by Don Boomer - Staff Photographer)

SDSU Professor Pat Abbott talked about what might happen if a 7.0 earthquake struck Southern California during a press conference and earthquake simulation at on Thursday. (Photo by Don Boomer - Staff Photographer)

More than 5 million Southern Californians, including nearly a million in San Diego and Riverside counties, are poised to take part this week in what is being billed as the largest earthquake drill in U.S. history.

At 10 a.m. Thursday, about 565,000 people in Riverside County and 405,000 in San Diego County plan to drop to the floor at school, home or the office as if a real quake were rocking the region, duck under a sturdy table or desk and hold onto the desk for 1 1/2 minutes.

"You want to hold on," said Sue Perry, staff scientist for the U.S. Geological Survey's Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Pasadena, which is helping coordinate the event. "You and the desk could be relocating during the shaking."

They will be pretending that a mammoth 7.8-magnitude shaker has just struck near the Salton Sea and is ripping northwestwardly along a 190-mile section of the San Andreas fault toward Lancaster, north of Los Angeles.

To make the exercise feel real, some are piping in earthquake sounds courtesy of the region's top scientists.

Modeled after the annual earthquake drills held in Japan, Thursday's exercise is aimed at helping Southern Californians get ready for a real shaker that, whether in the near term or long term, will cause a huge amount of damage across the region.

"We know in Southern California that a major earthquake could happen at any time," Perry said. "Like anything else, if you practice what you do, you are going to have a much better chance of doing the right thing during the shaking. ... And the first step is understanding what a really big earthquake would be like."

That's why a group of scientists came up with a fictional scenario for a temblor on the southern San Andreas that could kill 2,000 people, injure 50,000 people and cause $200 billion in damage. Such a quake would knock out freeways, railroads, canals, oil and natural gas pipelines, Internet lines and power lines.

All of Southern California would shake violently under the scenario, but the damage would be concentrated in the Palm Springs area, Riverside, San Bernardino, Orange County and Los Angeles.

While residents of North San Diego County and Southwest Riverside County would definitely feel it, they would largely be spared.

"In this particular earthquake, you guys luck out," Perry said.

But that shouldn't keep anyone from participating, she said, because there will be plenty of problems locally.

"You should expect power to be out for at least a day, and a few days in a number of places," Perry said. And with so many injuries and deaths to the north, she said, "people are definitely going to need your help."

For that reason, the San Diego County Office of Emergency Services is going to practice setting up shelters and makeshift hospitals at local universities on the day of the drill, said Ron Lane, the agency's director.

"We're analogous to what Houston was in Katrina," Lane said. Hurricane victims "needed a safe haven, a large city that could provide a lot of resources. And under this scenario, all of our counties to the north will have a huge amount of death and destruction. We will be the only large community in Southern California that does not have significant damage."

Aside from that, Perry said, the reality is that the next big shaker may in fact hit closer to home.

"You have plenty of home-grown faults ---- the Rose Canyon, the Elsinore, the San Jacinto ---- that could have dangerous consequences for San Diego," she said.

The Rose Canyon fault runs along the coast; the Elsinore fault runs from Lake Elsinore to Temecula, Pala and Julian; and the San Jacinto fault runs between Hemet and Anza-Borrego Desert State Park.

Indeed, Lane said, "we think the ShakeOut is an excellent opportunity for all San Diegans to practice with their families to prepare for an earthquake. A little advance planning can make a lot of difference."

And don't forget, Perry said, that in the San Andreas scenario, many San Diego County residents would be affected simply because they drive far for work. Citing U.S. Census figures, Perry said 12,000 commute to Orange County, 7,800 travel all the way to Los Angeles County, 5,800 work in Riverside County and 2,400 have jobs in San Bernardino County.

"Those people commute on roads that are going to be trashed by this earthquake," Perry said. "We're talking about tens of thousands stranded because they can't get home and can't get in touch with home to make sure everyone's OK."

And while Southwest Riverside County would be spared significant damage, residents there have plenty of reason to take part.

"Everyone in Riverside County should care about this, because the San Andreas fault rips the county in half in this earthquake," Perry said.

Some Riverside County communities will be without power for weeks and without water for six months, she said.

Those communities would probably include Riverside, Moreno Valley, Banning and Palm Springs, among others. For them, Perry said, "it's going to be quite a ride."

Clearly, said Peter Lent, director of the Riverside County Fire Department's Office of Emergency Services, "we are ground zero for this event."

And, so, Lent said, it is encouraging that close to 30 percent of Riverside County residents are signed up for the drill, the highest participation level in the region.

Every school district in the county, as well as 24 of its 26 cities and many businesses, are participating in the exercise, he said.

And he said the Office of Emergency Services is going to practice responding to the faux disaster by pretending that all Internet and telephone lines are down and cell phone circuits are down, and turning to radios and satellite phones. Lane said San Diego County's emergency office will conduct similar exercises.

As for the schools, all 11 in the Menifee Union School District will be drilling. Scott Mann, district risk manager and a councilman for the new city of Menifee, said the 6,000 students and 1,000 teachers and other employees on the campuses will duck to the background of earthquake sounds.

"Everyone's really motivated to do it," Mann said.

He added that notes went home with students Friday to tell parents about the plan.

The colleges are getting into the act as well, though in an abbreviated fashion.

"We're not going to do the 10 o'clock thing," said Dean Manship, emergency manager for Cal State San Marcos. He said that's because many of the approximately 9,000 students would be missed.

But Manship said he has asked all professors to show three-minute videos discussing the event and the correct way to take cover during a quake sometime during the day.

Even amusement parks are getting into the act.

Spokeswomen for Legoland California in Carlsbad and the San Diego Zoo's Wild Animal Park near Escondido said their drills will be conducted quietly in park offices and won't affect visitors.

It's human nature for people to think a disastrous earthquake never will affect them because they are rare, Perry said.

"The reality is that the nation's disaster history of the last few years has shown us that those rare events most certainly do happen," Perry said. "And it is the society that is not ready for them that gets nailed."

For information on the event, go to www.shakeout.org.

Contact staff writer Dave Downey at (760) 745-6611, Ext. 2623, or ddowney@nctimes.com.