REGION: Election reveals growing coastal-inland rift
North County voters rejected gay marriage, fire tax
By DAVE DOWNEY - Staff Writer | ∞
NCT Staff President-elect Barack Obama garnered a lot of votes on the North County coast but tended not to do well in the area's inland communities, according to unofficial results from the Nov. 4 general election.
Among other interesting highlights:
---- One of the most contentious measures on the ballot, Proposition 8, passed in most cities and in some places by more than a 2-to-1 margin. Only three communities voted against the state constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage: Encinitas, Solana Beach and Del Mar.
-- Proposition A, the countywide property tax that would have funded regional fire protection, failed to garner the 2-to-1 margin required for tax measures in all but one North County city and was opposed in the fire-prone backcountry.
The election results suggest that much of North County remains a bedrock of conservatism where many people continue to hold to traditional values and turn up their noses at tax measures.
The Obama vote caught the attention of political analysts.
Mike Byron, a Democratic analyst who teaches political science at several local colleges, said it is not surprising that Obama did better close to the ocean.
"What you have there is your coastal-versus-interior split that is developing in North County," Byron said.
Despite long being a GOP stronghold, the coast is gradually becoming more Democratic, he said.
"It's not San Francisco," said Byron. "But it's not Anaheim, either."
In that sense, North County is beginning to reflect a countywide trend that has been under way for years. That trend reached a significant milestone on the eve of last week's general election, as Democrats overtook Republicans in voter registration totals for San Diego County for the first time since 1984.
Moving away from the coast in a survey of the presidential race, McCain narrowly prevailed by a few hundred votes in both Vista and San Marcos. The farther inland one ventured, the wider the gap became.
In Escondido, for example, McCain received about 3,000 more votes than Obama. And McCain pounded the president-elect in the backcountry.
"Obama had a lot of appeal to upscale moderates," said Gary Jacobson, a political science professor at UC San Diego. "McCain, not surprisingly, did better in inland communities, which tend to be more conservative."
What was surprising to some was that the vote on Prop. 8, a measure that divided many along liberal and conservative lines, did not come close to mirroring the presidential contest.
"People who were comfortable with Obama weren't necessarily comfortable with gay marriage," Jacobson said.
While many whites, highly educated individuals and younger voters tended to be comfortable with same-sex marriage, older voters, conservative Christians and minorities were not, he said.
Indeed, Byron said, Encinitas, Solana Beach and Del Mar, which voted against the measure, and Carlsbad, where Prop. 8 narrowly prevailed, have large populations of affluent whites.
"When you get into Oceanside, the ethnic mix is considerably more black and brown," Byron said.
And in Oceanside, the supporters of Prop. 8 prevailed by about 10,000 votes, according to precinct totals from the county registrar of voters office.
"The increased African-American and Latino vote because of Obama might have doomed it (gay marriage)," Byron said. "It's ironic, but that's politics."
According to Associated Press exit polls, 70 percent of black voters and 53 percent of Latino voters statewide supported the ban, while whites were split.
When it came to the national contest, Oceanside and Rancho Penasquitos narrowly gave the nod to Obama while the first black person to be elected president won easily in Encinitas, Solana Beach and Del Mar.
The vote in Carlsbad was a virtual tie.
McCain was favored 2 to 1 in Ramona, Valley Center and Fallbrook.
When it came to the local contest, only Del Mar provided the two-thirds margin that would have been required on a countywide level to lift Prop. A. Solana Beach and Rancho Bernardo fell just shy of that threshold.
One of the communities hardest hit by the October 2007 firestorms, Rancho Bernardo lost more than 350 homes. According to unofficial results, 11,701 Rancho Bernardo residents voted in favor of the countywide fire tax and 6,085 residents voted against it.
"That's amazing," said Steve Erie, a UC San Diego political science professor who studies public safety policy. "Where were those 6,000 'no' people during the fire?"
In the backcountry, the measure did not come close to passing. Indeed, even if a simple majority had been the bar for approval, it appears Ramona and Valley Center would have voted Prop. A down.
"No" votes outnumbered "yes" votes in Ramona by more than 700, and by seven in Valley Center.
"The backcountry is an embarrassment," Erie said. "They are the ones who are threatened the most. The people who are most in danger, who would most benefit, are the most resistant."
The backcountry vote may have reflected distrust about what would become of local fire districts in a regional consolidation, he said. But Erie suggested the biggest factor was the desire to avoid new taxes.
It's also not surprising that the greatest support was on the coast, where residents are more willing to dig into their pockets, Erie said.
And folks in Solana Beach and Del Mar had to be thinking about how close the Witch Creek fire came to burning to the ocean last year, he said.
"They were in the path of the potential burn," he said. "It certainly got their attention."
Countywide, 63 percent ---- or 663,709 voters ---- gave the thumbs up for Prop. A.
Obama was named on almost 54 percent of San Diego County ballots, as he gathered 613,449 votes, according to preliminary results. Nearly the same number of people ---- or 610,817 ---- voted to ban gay marriage.
Contact staff writer Dave Downey at (760) 745-6611, Ext. 2623, or ddowney@nctimes.com.
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usa_all_the_way wrote on Nov 11, 2008 9:20 PM:its amazing to me that while socialist and communist countries turn to free markets and flat or fair tax systems to stimulate their economies, we turn to socialist strategies to stabalize ours. the conservative party forgot the whole "fiscal" conservatism aspect the last couple of years.
Duhhh wrote on Nov 11, 2008 10:02 PM:This is news? The further one gets from the coast the more conservative it gets. Another reason living on the coast is worth every penny.
To usa_all_the_way wrote on Nov 11, 2008 10:18 PM:Please enlighten us on how the socialist and communist countries are turning to free markets or fair tax systems. Please tell us which countries? It is the Republican Lassiez-faire economics that got the US into this mess.
Hypo wrote on Nov 12, 2008 6:35 AM:I think it is ironic that the liberals want to live in the not-so-diverse Encinitas, meanwhile they preach diversity.
John E wrote on Nov 12, 2008 7:04 AM:"Republican laissez-faire economics" alone did not get "the US into this mess" -- it was the liberals who forced banks to make home loans to unqualified borrowers. This is a bipartisan screw-up, with plenty of greed, corruption, and incompetence from folks on both the left and the right. As a society, we took on unjustifiably high, unsustainable levels of debt, and this built the entire economic house of cards which recently tumbled. The Great Depression was triggered by excessive investment leverage, and this is not a lot different.
John E wrote on Nov 12, 2008 7:06 AM:Educated, affluent, successful voters are not leaving the Republican Party -- it has been leaving them. The most encouraging trend in California politics has been the steady increase in the percentage of independent or "decline-to-state" voters, who justifiably feel disenfranchised as the two parties drift toward their respective poles.
Who Cares wrote on Nov 12, 2008 7:12 AM:Republicans didn't show up to vote because of their disappointment with the McCain campaign. Let Obama and the Democrats show their true agenda and screw up the country. Give the country a taste of who not to vote for in future elections.
Enlightened wrote on Nov 12, 2008 7:19 AM:Forcing banks to lend mortgages to people who couldn't afford to buy houses caused our current economic situation. The legislation to force those banks was written, passed, and enforced by Democrats. The Democrats cover up by blaming the Republicans and people believe them because they are either uninformed or they can't think for themselves.
Valley Center Reader wrote on Nov 12, 2008 8:01 AM:Prop. A was not a particularly well drafted proposition. It is not about the back county vs. the coast. It is about understanding that there is more than one way to fight a fire, and that some local control is beneficial. In the unincorporated areas, fire districts and school boards are the local elected government. Planning groups are aced by the Board of Supers.
Perhaps a fire control proposition that takes ALL of us into consideration is worth crafting, carefully, rather than implying that we are somehow less intelligent.
Tom wrote on Nov 12, 2008 8:13 AM:As a Latino myself, it's discouraging to see Latinos and Blacks vote so overwhelmingly against gay marriage. It's telling of a deeply entrenched, and unflattering, homophobia. But just beneath homophobia, is patriarchy.
By the way, the lgbt community should not distance themselves from Latino and Black communities because of this vote on prop. 8.
There's plenty of progressive Latinos and Blacks who voted no, who phone banked, and who held No on 8 signs on street corners.
If anything, it's time for these communities to actually come closer, unite for a progressive agenda on 1) gay marriage 2) amnesty-friendly immigration reform and 3) penal code reform to stop imprisoning poor people for life for the crime of being poor.
P.S. Re: financial meltdown. It was deregulation/laissez faire economics.
Jim in Oceanside wrote on Nov 12, 2008 8:20 AM:I am utterly amazed that Liberals feel the need to rewrite historical fact. It was a Democrat President who forced Freddy & Fanny to grant morgtages to people who did not qualify. As a bare minimum allowed mortgage bankers to ignore disqualifying factors when creating and approving all of those "creative" loans with massive balloon payments. All of this was started prior to the Bush Administration, yet Bush gets the blame from you who would ignore facts. I am really interested in how Obama will handle things as President and have resolved to sit back and watch. I just pray there are sufficient conservative and middle of the road Democrats in both Houses of Congress to act as a moderating influence on the upcoming administration.
Karl wrote on Nov 12, 2008 9:31 AM:Tom @ 8:13 AM:
"penal code reform to stop imprisoning poor people for life for the crime of being poor".
Huh? Can you name one person that was sentenced to life for being poor?
Peace
FF wrote on Nov 12, 2008 9:54 AM:Simple. The back country now gets their fire protection for free - provided by the coast - and they want to keep it that way. Can't blame them, when will the coast wise up?
Cardiffian wrote on Nov 12, 2008 9:59 AM:First off, let me just say it's wonderful to live on the coast. Second, while I don't disagree that the dems had a hand in this crisis, wasn't it a repub president that got us into a war that was never in the budget, and told us that we didn't need to worry - just keep spending so the terrorists won't think they won? Come on people, one party or the other didn't get us into this mess, and one party or the other won't get us out of it. Oh, and Obama is not advocating socialism. Anyone who thinks that must have flunked Econ 101, or Sociology 101.
Jim in Oceanside wrote on Nov 12, 2008 10:58 AM:I am completely apposed to giving amnesty to any law breaker for any bleeding heart reason. Do the Crime and Do the Time. Would you support amnesty to all shoplifters, speeder or other traffic offenders? Normally that is "only" a misdemeanor!
It is the sworn responsibility of every public officer to uphold the law, it doesn't matter if it is Federal Law, State Law, or City Law, it is the law.
Don wrote on Nov 12, 2008 11:11 AM:This makes me proud to be an Encinitan. And it just goes to show, the further inland you get, the weirder the people get.
YES ON 8 wrote on Nov 12, 2008 2:45 PM:Well, it looks like the majority has it in N.C. Can the gays please get over it? The people of California have spoken once again!
LJP wrote on Nov 12, 2008 3:42 PM:Fascinating article and a neat graphic. Nice work Mr. Downey and the rest of the NCT staff!!!
Let em burn wrote on Nov 12, 2008 4:18 PM:Hey backcountry! Don't want to pay any more taxes for expanded fire protection? That's cool, just don't expect sympathy (or handouts) when your sprawling McRanch burns to the ground in the next firestorm. Even the Del Martians voted to improve YOUR fire protection. Oh well, I guess you guys didn't need it after all. Say, isn't there a santa ana coming this weekend?
Trickle down economy wrote on Nov 12, 2008 6:23 PM:For the last time because the election is over and the majority of Americans have spoken - President Bush and his cronies were the reason the economy and housing has taken a down turn. When the President is in power, it is his people who are appointed to the agencies that control the laws and purse strings. Bush appointed so many cronies (like AG Gonzales for the Justice Department) that had only one agenda - make the RNC more powerful. The trickle down affect failed because the RNC elite never let go of their golden parachutes...
FTM wrote on Nov 12, 2008 6:50 PM:Maybe now NCT will stop slamming Oceanside all the time.
JP wrote on Nov 12, 2008 8:01 PM:Attn: Mr. Hypo, Encinitas has a large latino population.
To Let Em Burn wrote on Nov 12, 2008 8:26 PM:Solana Beach almost burned in the last fire...is that really your attitude?
Lots of the land that burned was suburban (Rancho Bernardo, Scripps Ranch, etc.) or land preserved by county parks, where brush has never been cleared (with the idea of "pristine" wilderness). SDG&E is clearly at fault, not people who live in rural areas.
We are all in this together.
michael wrote on Nov 12, 2008 11:54 PM:Conservatives Please Note:
Bear Stearns had a debt to capital ratio of 33 to 1. So for every billion dollars of capital held by Bear Stearns, Bear Stearns also held 33 billion dollars of debt!
Bear Stearns was able to do this because there is no EFFECTIVE regulation of the investment banking industry.
Conservative Republican Anti-Government, Anti-Regulation IDIOTS in Congress (and the stupid voters who support them) brought us this banking crisis.
Sorry Pals, it is the WHITE GUYS who are to blame!
Jim needs to do his homework wrote on Nov 12, 2008 11:55 PM:It was the lack of regulations and the merging of investment and commercial banks (pushed largely by "free market" conservatives) that allowed the financial industry to package, slice and dice, and sell the sub prime loans that created the market for them. And have you ever heard of a Credit Default Swap?
FTM wrote on Nov 13, 2008 6:56 AM:A total free market does not work. If you want to see a perfect example of a total free market just find an old fashioned carnival full of "carnies" that steal your money with thier crooked carnival games.
Hong Kong is always touted in these arguments but Hong Kong is selling into regulated markets. Hong Kong may not be regulated but the people they sell to are.
I'm a big believer of free markets but there must be rules to the game and all the participants must play by the rules.
I agree that the people that wrote the rules partly created the credit meltdown, but people borrowing money and not paying it back is the same as stealing so the people that borrowed the money are also just as culpable.
How 'free' do you want your society? We have the right to assembly so that causes a proliferation of gangs. Free markets create ponzi shcemes. Anytime you let human beings run free you create the possibility of tremendous creative advancement AND terrible destructive evilness.
How free of a society do YOU want? That's the real question. It's totaly up to YOU.
Carol wrote on Nov 13, 2008 8:43 AM:This so-called "division" is merely a difference between people who have seen the cause (like Cunningham, Bush economics, et al) and people who still believe in political ideology and free market capitalism. Look at your retirement fund, and what, you're going to keep blaming the democrats? For how long?
The meltdowns, and burn downs have happened on the unregulated, conservative watch. Our Board of Supes isn't known for its liberal left-leaning policies, and we've had how many catastrophic fires? Change can be good when stagnation has caused so much damage.
bogie wrote on Nov 13, 2008 10:59 AM:I've often thought that there are no brains west of I-5, now I know it!.
Sleeping but Awake wrote on Nov 13, 2008 11:21 AM:Just a quick note to the more mainstream demacrats. The right wing, religous fanatical, rush limbaugh cool aid drinking conservatives are beyond the reach of logic. It is amazing that this conservative bunch buys every word of republican speaking points and tries to blame the economic crisis on predatory loan practices. The real cause of the melt down is unregulated leverage positions of the banks. The rich try to make the rules to benefit them getting richer and we all got burned by their greed. The conservatives in inland areas of the county are voting against there own self interest as the rich don't give two shakes for there welfare. These folks need to think more and vote less until they break free from the grip of talk radio.
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