REGION: Memorable election, forgettable turnout

Voters fail to show up at the polls in record numbers.

By ZACH FOX - Staff Writer | Sunday, November 16, 2008 6:14 PM PST ∞

The recent historic election did not have the historic voter turnout some analysts predicted.

Locally, turnout actually declined from 2004, according to elections data and the U.S. Census Bureau.

San Diego County's elections fit into what appears to be a national trend: More Democrats voted but many Republicans stayed home, keeping voter turnout numbers from coming close to record levels, analysts said.

"Clearly, all the prognosticators were wrong," said Keith Poole, a politics professor at UC San Diego. "It appears the press hyping voter turnout was just a false phenomenon."

Countywide, 65.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots last week, down from 67.7 percent in 2004, based on total votes and number of adult citizens. The numbers were compiled from the San Diego County's registrar of voters office and assumed 90 percent of outstanding provisional ballots, filled out by voters who did not show up on the election rolls, would be certified.

In Southwest Riverside County, turnout dropped even more based on congressional voting, reinforcing a split in turnout along party lines.

The staunchly Republican 49th Congressional District, which stretches from Vista to Perris, easily re-elected Rep. Darrell Issa amid a drop in turnout from 59 percent in 2004 to 52 percent on Nov. 5. North County's other two districts, which cover Carlsbad through Ramona and voted less Republican, did not experience a major drop in turnout.

Also, Poole said a $700 billion bailout of the financial sector possibly discouraged voting. "You've got to believe that ... this bailout coming out weeks before the election would produce a lot of disillusionment," he said. "I don't really blame people for not voting, to be honest."

And nationally, the percentage of eligible voters who showed up at the polls ticked up just 1 percentage point from the last presidential election, according to Michael McDonald, an associate professor at George Mason University in Virginia who tracks election data.

In the weeks leading up to the election, some analysts said the enthusiasm surrounding President-elect Barack Obama's campaign would galvanize young and minority voters. That didn't happen, McDonald said.

Minority voting did increase significantly. But after similarly failing to meet expectations in 2004, the share of younger voters did not increase dramatically this time around.

"Right now, the evidence is weak to suggest that young people turned out at a much higher rate," he said. However, youth voting did swing dramatically into the Democratic column, based on McDonald's data.

In 2004, young voters supported Democratic candidate John Kerry by a spread of 9 percentage points. This year, the difference between Obama and Sen. John McCain was 34 percentage points.

"That should be very troubling to the Republican Party," McDonald said.

San Diego County, a bastion of fiscal conservatism, might have seen voting drop because McCain focused on courting the cultural conservative vote, he said.

Further, 2008 voter turnout might have suffered from a consensus that Obama would win the election with ease, said Jack Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.

"The outcome looked pretty clear in advance. Unlike the past two elections, there was no sense that it would go right down to the wire," he said.

Looking to future elections, the low Republican turnout could mean Democrats do not enjoy as much leeway as Obama's easy victory might suggest.

"Republicans have to rebrand themselves and apply to economic conservatives. And they have a chance to do that because they're out of power now and can rail against tax-and-spend liberals," McDonald said. "It just depends how much people remember George Bush."

Contact staff writer Zach Fox at (760) 740-5412 or zfox@nctimes.com. Read his blog, "On the Realside," at bizblogs.nctimes.com.