REGION: Study says county to get hotter, sea to rise 18 inches by 2050
By DAVE DOWNEY - Staff Writer | ∞
The sea level along the San Diego County coast may be a foot and a half higher, temperatures may be 4.5 degrees hotter and the region may have 18 percent less water than it needs in 2050, all a result of climate change, according to a report released Monday by the San Diego Foundation.
The rising ocean would put popular beaches and seaside communities at risk, even as the air is choked with increasingly thick smog fueled by three times as many heat waves as now, the report warned.
And the county that boasts more endangered species than any other in the nation could wake up to a backcountry where many native plants and wildlife have been pushed into extinction.
"It's really an unprecedented threat," said Bill Kuni, chairman of the foundation's climate change committee, in a telephone interview Monday.
The report, titled "San Diego's Changing Climate: A Regional Wake-up Call," examines what the region will look like a little more than four decades from now if measures are not taken to slash emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, that are believed to be heating up the planet.
About 40 scientists contributed to the analysis, including several from the widely respected Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.
The foundation is a charitable group that has awarded hundreds of millions of dollars in grants over three decades for reports and projects aimed at improving the region's quality of life. The foundation paid $173,000 for the report.
The study represents local scientists' first attempt to go beyond the general impacts of global warming statewide and determine what specific consequences might be in store for San Diego County.
And it follows the release in September of a first-ever report quantifying the region's contribution to global warming. That report found that 46 percent of local carbon emissions come from cars and trucks.
The latest report issued a call for action to county residents and elected officials.
Kuni said the foundation wants all 18 area cities and the county government to develop their own plans to slash greenhouse gas emissions from their neighborhoods, business districts and municipal operations.
Not everyone believes there is urgency in heeding the call to action.
A global-warming skeptic maintains that sea level and temperature rises between and now and 2050 won't come close to the report's projections.
"That's complete and total nonsense," said Gary Sharp, scientific director for the Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study in Salinas, a group that exists to debunk the idea of climate change.
Kuni said, however, that the foundation report is backed by solid science and is, if anything, on the conservative side in its predictions.
And Kuni said that if the atmosphere is allowed to continue to fill up with increasing amounts of carbon, the quality of life will suffer in every corner of the county.
"In the inland areas, we are going to see temperatures over three figures for a significant period of the year," he said. "Meanwhile, folks in places like Solana Beach and Encinitas are going to watch their homes fall into the ocean. They're going to watch their streets and their beaches go under water."
That is, he said, unless the region does something about global warming.
"The good news is that there is still time to act now, and we can have a positive impact on our future," said Emily Young, director of the foundation's environmental program.
The report asks each resident to:
-- Commit to making three personal lifestyle changes to help the environment.
-- Call mayors, city council members and county supervisors, and press them to develop local climate action plans.
-- Call state and federal lawmakers and ask them to pass laws to accelerate efforts to curb emissions.
-- Get involved in community programs that aim to conserve natural resources and build a more sustainable region.
-- Share the report with family, friends and others.
Among the potential lifestyle changes, Kuni said people could conserve electricity, cover buildings with light-colored roofs, drive more fuel-efficient vehicles, take public transportation to work and switch out lawns for drought-tolerant landscaping.
"We do live in a desert," he said.
According to the report, the county will become even more desertlike as rainfall totals shrink and temperatures climb by 1.5 degrees to 4.5 degrees.
"We will have three times as many heat waves, and they're likely to start earlier in the year and be drawn out later in the year," Young said.
The hotter weather, in turn, will reverse the current long-term trend toward cleaner air as the sun bakes exhaust from cars and creates more smog.
Some disagree, however, with the report's dire predictions.
While hotter weather may well erase air-quality gains, Bill Brick, a meteorologist with the San Diego County Air Pollution Control District, said his agency still expects smog levels to be lower in 2050 than today.
"Ozone levels might be higher with global warming than without, but we should still be in (compliance with federal standards)," Brick said.
Sharp, the skeptic, said the temperature may increase, but by a small amount.
If it does, he said, "it won't have a damn thing to do with ... the globe." Instead, he said, it will be a result of what has been widely called the "urban heat island effect," by which the expanding mass of concrete buildings and asphalt highways warms cities over time.
Sharp maintained that the sea level isn't likely to climb any faster than it did last century, when it rose 7 inches along the Southern California coast.
The report is available at http://www.sdfoundation.org/news/pdf/Focus2050glossySDF-ClimateReport.pdf.
Contact staff writer Dave Downey at (760) 745-6611, Ext. 2623, or ddowney@nctimes.com.
More Stories
Advertisement
Great news wrote on Nov 17, 2008 11:57 AM:.. and on a Monday following a Chargers loss, at that. Thanks NCT.
Soothsayer wrote on Nov 17, 2008 12:11 PM:I wouldn't worry about this report, since we all "could be" vaporized by nuclear holocaust and there "is a possibility of" aliens blowing up the planet Earth before 2050. I'd just like to know how I can get millions of dollars for dreaming up possible future scenarios.
Zephon wrote on Nov 17, 2008 12:12 PM:I think the 18 inches in sea level rise is very conservative - based upon current model's forecasts.
While most also agree to the drier climate I also question this. Depending upon ocean currents effecting ocean temperatures I think we have a possibility to become more humid - with much warmer ocean waters and tropical moisture coming up from the south we could see scattered thundershowers especially in our local mountains. Even with more humidity we have overbuilt so much with irresponsible development there are no good solutions to the water problem.
Regardless, most of San Diego's leaders have their head in the sand with denial to global climate change and it's man made causes.
John E wrote on Nov 17, 2008 12:34 PM:Zephon, the whole society has its collective head in the sand with denial about the possibility that human activity is indeed exacerbating an otherwise natural warming cycle. I concur that the win-win-win is to cut back on personal energy consumption -- walk and bike more, drive less, etc.
WIJG wrote on Nov 17, 2008 12:35 PM:Interesting - we can't accurately predict the weather 3-4 days out, yet here we have an "accurate" forecast for the year 2050.
Fearmongering for dollars, we are? Sorry, San Diego Foundation, need to look elsewhere for someone with money to shakedown - we don't have anymore.
the sky is falling wrote on Nov 17, 2008 1:01 PM:what a joke,to get the right prediction
just flip-flop what ever they say. ocean levels will drop and it will be snowing on a regular basis.
Derek wrote on Nov 17, 2008 3:19 PM:An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. I'd rather pay my ounce now than wait for absolute confirmation and pay a whole pound later. Call it insurance. Although it won't be us paying the price of our denial and laziness, but our children and grandchildren.
gimmeabreak wrote on Nov 17, 2008 3:50 PM:yes, but none of it is caused by man. How can I be so sure? Because Rush O'Hanitwit and the Savage Wieners told me so, and they always tell the truth. Global warming is made up by eeevil libruls.
RG1 wrote on Nov 17, 2008 4:49 PM:Continued denial now by the general public and our politicians because of our respective shortsightedness will just delay the eventual solutions. Our kids and their kids will pay a bigger price for the gradual increase in the problems we're allowing. The public doesn't want to hear about it, and the politicians know they will be out of office by time anything "needs" to be done.
Mary wrote on Nov 17, 2008 7:17 PM:Well, if humans are causing global warming, maybe you people should stop having so many children. One child trumps owning 1 SUV by a long shot. If children, who generally grow up to be adults, can't figure out how to survive on this planet, then maybe they shouldn't. How did we get to be where we are now, if the past generations were not able to adapt to changing climate and survive? We didn't start out living in condos and going to grocery stores for food.
And quite frankly I am not about to sacrifice my enjoyment of life for your children. I survived, let them figure out how to survive. How about this, the sea rises, MOVE!
anotherview wrote on Nov 17, 2008 7:30 PM:Statewide, farmers overuse and waste water. Farming activity now consumes about 85 percent of the available state water supply. Households use about 5 percent. The rest goes to government, industrial, and commercial. Simple math shows that forcing farmers to lower their water use by only 5.88 percent would free up an amount equal to household water use. Further, about 30 percent of farm irrigation water runs off the land to waste. Via political pressure, however, farmers resist (1) improving their farm irrigation practices and (2) recycling farm water runoff. The Golden State has plenty of water available, but the distribution and use of this water does not happen rationally. Farmers grab most of the water, and then waste nearly a third of it. So any fair and sound solution to the water supply problem must require farmers to stop using and wasting so much water. Then others will have enough water.
what a joke wrote on Nov 17, 2008 7:56 PM:San Diego topography has been radically changed in the past 40 years. Lots of hills shaved down, valleys filled in and huge amounts of land covered with asphalt, concrete, and buildings all of which deplete percolation of water into the ground. Along with the water sucking , worthless golf courses. We are feeling heat and weather like a desert. Doesn't take a money begging San Diego Foundation to write a story like this to figure it all out. All the uncontrolled building has ruined our weather. As for weather in 2050, let those who live in it worry about it. Not my problem.
astronomer wrote on Nov 17, 2008 8:19 PM:Who cares -- the asteroid hits us in 2029! It's the end of the world and the government knows it.
astronomer wrote on Nov 17, 2008 8:22 PM:Who cares -- the 5-mile-wide asteroid hits us in 2029! It's the end of the world and the government knows it.
WTF wrote on Nov 17, 2008 9:05 PM:Somebody tell anotherview that the water conservation comments should have been made on a different web page. Actually, I can go back a week or so and read the same comment nearly verbatim on a different article. Time for some new material.
Oh wait a minute, I guess his point is to solve both the water crisis and rising seas by sucking 18 inches off of the ocean and use for farming. Farmers will just have to start growing salt water taffy.
Just wondering, but was mankind responsible for global warming after the Ice Age? Are we sure the current global warming isn't George Bush's fault, so the problem will be gone in January?
Floyd wrote on Nov 17, 2008 10:04 PM:Nobody has yet explained how humans are causing the global warming on Mars. If you can come up with a plausable reason, then you might be able to convince me that humans are responsible for global warming on earth. Until then, it's just a hoax.
Mike L. wrote on Nov 17, 2008 11:42 PM:Come on. These clowns will sensationalize and say just about anything to get money for so called "research" grants. What a complete and utter joke. I wonder what this group's relationship is to Chicken Little?
Herb wrote on Nov 18, 2008 12:02 AM:That's all right. My home is at 671 feet above sea level, and when it gets to 669.5 feet I will not be able to tell the difference. As a matter of fact I am 75 years old and have no Grandchildren so who cares.
I noticed also that you said, "- -are believed to be heating up the plant- -." Well, I have been taking a good look at the other side of the coin. But it doesn't really matter why we do it. We must stop trashing up our part of the the world. We are literally littering up our ground level breathing air to a point that some people are dying from it much younger than they would otherwise, and lives are being made miserable by the littering smog. If perhaps in curing our ground level problems we cured our ozone problems, and kept the sea from rising 18 inches, I am sure that would be acceptable. So what is the big fuss - get busy and start solving the trash-in-the-breathing-air around our heads and perhaps, if there is a problem we can solve up in the ozone, we can take care of it in the doing.
JSten wrote on Nov 18, 2008 3:43 AM:Since the problem is GLOBAL, it is unlikely that the citizens of San Diego can do very much except support GLOBAL initiatives to curtail pollutants, and discourage creation of greenhouse gases. We can act locally, but then we already knew that. Without improvements in what the rest of the world is doing we are just whizzin in the wind.
Also, looks like the oil industry itself has done more to slash emissions that any initiative imposed by state and local governments. Maybe the money would have been better spent investigating why the local mass transit providers cut service when people needed it most. Oh right, it was due to high energy costs.
What is disturbing is that someone paid over $170,000 for something that doesn't appear to be worth 17 cents in terms of added knowledge. Maybe less in terms of the trees and energy used to create it.
2012 wrote on Nov 18, 2008 7:01 AM:something is "suppose to happen" in 2012 TOO so what me worry ?? Besides whether global warming is nature/people..one thing is for sure= The over population has become ridiculous. Birth control people !! Seems more and more kids are born now with " problems" than ever before...why is THAT?
Patriot wrote on Nov 18, 2008 7:51 AM:Often times the same people who see the connection between overpopulation and global warming have their heads firmly buried in the sand when confronted with the connection between immigration and overpopulation in California.
QUESTIONS wrote on Nov 18, 2008 8:12 AM:Has anyone noticed gas prices are down by half. How about, do you remember when the E.P.A. claimed by installing all those costly converters on our cars that bad part of smog would be turned into harmless CO2.?
I just read a report from the lawn and garden industery that stated a well maintained lawn is better a removing co2 than tree
Anoutherview, you are a broken record, where do you get your information, give us some facts.
Great news wrote on Nov 18, 2008 8:15 AM:This will solve our water shortage! Finally, my hair-spray useage is paying off dividends!
Pascal wrote on Nov 18, 2008 8:23 AM:Typical human behavior. Ridicule science until a catastrophe strikes, then panic.
We have some of the best scientific minds in the world right here at UCSD and SIO, yet we poke fun as if we knew more than those far more educated than we. And we give equal credence to the tiny fraction of naysayers (many of whom are funded by oil companies) who are vastly outnumbered by a far more broad consensus of excellent science.
Remedies science is proposing would benefit us not only by solving global warming, but these green solutions would create a new economy, and improve quality of life.
And if it turns out science is right, rather than us armchair "experts," ask yourselves this: what did we gain by ignoring them? A few more years of an untenable oil-based economy and a set of problems we can no longer fix?
Were we not wrote on Nov 18, 2008 9:51 AM:All going to freeze to death in the 70's from the ice age that was comming?.... I remember it well, the schools were teaching it, the news was making us all panic...... now I am gonna die from dehydration and a sunburn.... come on SCIENCE... make up your mind.
Human Bean wrote on Nov 18, 2008 9:59 AM:OK Pascal, we'll "give it the old college try", but I'm warning you, if we put out that kind of effort for the environment only to be undermined by aliens blowing up Earth, then we're all going to be PO'd for wasting our time.
fedup wrote on Nov 18, 2008 11:00 AM:gee, and I thought that the sun controlled the temperature of the earth....
Fools Gold wrote on Nov 18, 2008 11:35 AM:Science, like the internet, is a fad. It will pass and we can get back to good ol' unsubstantiated speculation.
Pascal wrote on Nov 18, 2008 11:37 AM:I never learned any major "ice age" theory in school, nor do I recall any widespread consensus on this, but you miss the point of how science works. You don't write off a huge consensus with masses of evidence because you can find an alternate theory that refutes it. Science is always questioning, always seeking the truth. Why do you through the baby out with the bath water? Can't you use your reason to sift out the noise?
Uli wrote on Nov 18, 2008 11:40 AM:these are the same old scare tactics/fear tactics used by the democrats and the left wing.THE SKY IS FALLING!! the global warming lie is all about money, just follow the money path it leads to wacky left wing orginizations every time!!
Floyd The Scientist wrote on Nov 18, 2008 12:03 PM:We're not ridiculing science. We're ridiculing the political hoax of man-made global warming. You can trust me on this, because I'm wearing my WHITE LAB COAT.
Sleeping but Awake wrote on Nov 18, 2008 12:11 PM:Hey, the ocean rising 18 inches is a great and positive thing. This means we will have more water. Lets build wind powered desalination plants and take the new water out and use this for a good cause. Lets use this new water for agriculture, building man made lakes acros the dessert, and selling this excess water to Mexico and Arizona and Nevada.It will be like our state suddenly has oil only it is water and will have great value. The fact that things could get a little hotter will not be the end of us by any stretch. Just get a higher spf sun block. No way we should let global warming win. Lets take this global warming lemon and make margaritas.......yeah for global warming, bring it on.
Kurt wrote on Nov 18, 2008 12:57 PM:We are doomed! The Zeta greys told me so. Then I got confirmation from some religious people who came to my door to warn me. This report settles it for me. I knew my Y2K food rations would come in handy some day.
To another view wrote on Nov 18, 2008 1:08 PM:Get another brain! You re-send the exact same anti-farmer lies for every article on the water shortage, now your sending your baseless trash even when the article isn't about the water shortage.
Bon wrote on Nov 18, 2008 1:10 PM:This is not news! This is not news and this newspaper and staff writer should be ashamed for printing it as such. This is propaganda issued by a special interest group, nothing more. The staff writer did not challenge the special interest group, nor did he check their data against other sources, the staff writer failed to act as an investigator in any form or fashion. The Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change of the United Nations states the rise in sea level to be but a fraction of this. Way to go NCT, contribute to the Chicken Little syndrome with no thought about accuracy.
Bo wrote on Nov 18, 2008 1:22 PM:High tides were greater than 7 feet last week and we all survived, is 18 more inces going to kill us?
robert wrote on Nov 18, 2008 1:49 PM:these things need to happen now:
1. the un needs to mandate that china limit births and co2
2. usa needs to convert everycar to burn hydrogen-and no fuel cell bs please. do this in five years using nuclear, wind and wastewater
3. us needs birth control as well.
its simple, drop the fuel cell crap and create hydrogen economy so that we can burn hydrogen in our car engines. then mandate birth control worldwide. its simple: hydrogen and birth control will save.
To Robert wrote on Nov 18, 2008 2:37 PM:1. The "un" has no authority or power to mandate anything in any country.
2. China has self imposed birth limits of one child per family.
4. The U.S. is the leading producer of CO2.
3. Hydrogen is not economical or safe for auto use. It takes more energy to create hydrogen than is derived from burning hydrogen. Hydrogen must be held in a pressurized tank, which is akin to driving around with a hydrogen bomb in your car.
4. A "hydrogen economy" would be a deficit economy because more energy would be spent producing the hydrogen than the energy that hydrogen would produce.
5. If it was simple it would already be done.
DREAD KNOT wrote on Nov 18, 2008 3:42 PM:An enormous asteroid will bang into the earth before 2050. This coincides with biblical predictions and Nostrodamus. There will be no San Diego Coast and there will be no earth by 2050. If only we could fashion big enough space craft before the asteroid hits, millions of humans could be transported to another planet to start life anew! In the process, some could be left behind, such as the terrorists and etc. So it will all turn out to be a blessing in disguise!!
To Sleeping but Awake wrote on Nov 18, 2008 3:46 PM:Love it! When life sends you lemons, make lemonade.
Fret not wrote on Nov 18, 2008 3:47 PM:for the end is nearer than you think. This warming process will accelerate until Mother Earth is one big flame ball. Even the moon will be scorched as time marches on. One el biggo inferno. Such are wages of sin, the wages of smoking and demon rum. Those are the root causes. OK?
To To Robert wrote on Nov 18, 2008 3:48 PM:"It takes more energy to create hydrogen than is derived from burning hydrogen."
That applies to all fuels. Hydrogen's no different. A fuel that creates more energy than was used to create the fuel would violate the second law of thermodynamics.
To Patriot wrote on Nov 18, 2008 4:05 PM:Bravo, someone had to make this article about illegal immigration. You better go to the article about the big three automakers bailout and make sure everyone knows it's the illegals fault.
Dane wrote on Nov 18, 2008 5:16 PM:This report is bunk. Why would NCTimes even publish this? It lacks credibility even for the sensationalistic media. Do you suppose Bill Kuni migt just happen to have ties with environmentalist organizations where he and they might benefit from his un-scientifically based agenda? If nothing else, I hope Mr. Kuni is leading by example and owns no cars, uses no electricity, eats no commercially grown food (transported from elsewhere in trucks and using fertilizer produced from petroleum products), etc.
Dave wrote on Nov 18, 2008 5:22 PM:If Co2 is like insulation and keeps the warmth in. My house has a layer of R22 insulation. If i fill the atic with insulation can i stop heating my house this winter. No because of deminishing return of the insulation.
JSten wrote on Nov 18, 2008 6:25 PM:Umm...
There is a vast difference between a bottle of compressed or liquified hydrogen gas, and a hydrogen bomb. If it were not so then Al-Qaida would have our your you know whatties in a sling.
Jaque wrote on Nov 19, 2008 7:24 AM:""According to the report, the county will become even more desertlike as rainfall totals shrink and temperatures climb by 1.5 degrees to 4.5 degrees.""
Um get ready folks! Inland temperatures are going from 94 to 96.5
There is no real evidence that increases in global temps are anthropogenically caused. But, people scared of their own shadow will continue to buy into it, so the show will go on.
And just a comment about the comments. Hydrogen is the most common element found on the planet. Why hasn't it been adapted to a energy resource? Those in power love the petroleum industry. There continues to be record money from the oligarchy, and until politicians can syphon off dinero from the something (hydrogen, marijuana) they won't recognize the importance of it.
OMG wrote on Nov 19, 2008 8:41 AM:My favorite quote from this story:
"They're going to watch their streets and their beaches go under water."...
"That is, he said, unless the region does something about global warming."
This quote confirms that this report is nothing but scare tactics by the local Gore worshipers.
Making changes "regionally" will have no effect on global warming or the rise of the seas locally, that is why it is called "global".
What a crock, who are these hacks?
burt wrote on Nov 19, 2008 9:48 AM:So, in 2005, the world consumption of oil was 83,607,000 bbl/day, and there are 42 gallons of oil per barrel (doe source: www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickoil.html). Each gallon of oil can produce 140,000 BTU. Multiplying these: 83,607,000 bbl/day * 42 gal/bbl * 140,000 BTU/gal = 491,609,160,000 BTU/day produced. A wood stove running full tilt produces about 30,000 BTU/hr. In a day the wood stove could produce 30,000 BTU * 24 hrs/day = 720,000 BTU/day. Finally, ignoring the insulating effects of the CO2 released by burning this oil, to get an idea of the heat that humans are producing we can take
491,609,160,000 BTU/day from burning oil and divide it by 720,000 BTU/day for a blazing wood stove, and get an equivalent heat output of 682,790 wood stoves running at full capacity around the clock. Do this for 20 to 30 years. Remember that while the Earth is not a closed thermal system, a significant portion of heat that enters or is produced within the atmosphere is retained by reflection by greenhouse gases. Therefore, humans could, in fact, possibly have influenced the temperature of the earth.
Pascal wrote on Nov 19, 2008 12:01 PM:The greater the consequences, the greater the denial.
I'm so glad we have so many "experts" who can tell us all the science is wrong, based on their hypothetical conspiracy theory. How gifted these armchair scientists are who are so confident in their political advisors like Rush, AM radio, and Fox Network. (Roger Hedgecock says he KNOWS the sea level hasn't risen because he can "see" it out his window! Has Roger crafted a dipstick to make these measurements?)
I prefer to entrust the future of the earth to the hundreds of thousands of brilliant scientists, rather than self-appointed conspiracy theorists who know so little they don't even know what they don't know.
Jay wrote on Nov 19, 2008 12:04 PM:I'm not sure what burt said but I will be doing whatever Tom Cruise recommends.
Human Bean wrote on Nov 19, 2008 1:27 PM:Well, Jay, whatever burt said is only part of the equation. What he left out was the part about 7,000,000,000 people producing 600 BTU/hr, which means our mere existence will lead to us all one day spontaneously combusting. I'm doing my part to minimize this problem by drinking as many cold beers as I can. Here's another tip - stay away from that second helping of frijoles.
Pascal, you sound like a typical egghead with zero sense of humor. That's pretty boring.
- ESCONDIDO: Man shot dead at Fourth of July party (9869)
- TEMECULA: Protesters line intersection (6024)
- ESCONDIDO: 3 DUI arrests, 46 impounds at checkpoint (4858)
- ESCONDIDO: City's dreams of an 'upscale' downtown may be dying (4565)
- ESCONDIDO: Victim's roommate recalls July 4 shooting, friends gather for vigil (4343)
Advertisement





