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HOUSING: Foreclosure crisis spreads to higher-end neighborhoods

Areas of Carlsbad, Rancho Bernardo, Bonsall surge; defaults set recession record

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Local mortgage defaults hit a new record in February, as the foreclosure crisis spread from lower-priced neighborhoods deep into the well-heeled corners of North County, a report showed Thursday.

Since January 2007, almost 10,000 North County homes have succumbed to foreclosure, or roughly one of every 37 homes. Most were along the Highway 78 corridor in areas of lower-cost homes such Oceanside's Back Gate and eastern-central Escondido.

But the crisis is spreading -- and picking up steam -- according to figures released by ForeclosureRadar, a Northern California data tracking firm.

For example, notices of default were sent to owners of 50 homes last month in Carlsbad's 92009 ZIP code. The default rate surged from an average two homes per 1,000 in 2008 to four homes per 1,000 in February, nearly double the national rate and higher than in foreclosure-plagued areas such as Ramona.

Similar trends were evident in Bonsall, Rancho Bernardo and other relatively pricey communities.

Across North County, notices of default reached a new peak for this recession, with 1,235 homes entering foreclosure last month at a rate of about three per 1,000 homes. Notices of default are issued when a homeowner is at least three months late on a mortgage payment, and are an indicator of future foreclosures, suggesting the region's foreclosure crisis will grow before it shrinks.

Foreclosures in higher-end areas are "just starting, and it's something you'll see throughout this year," said Kurt Kinsey, a real estate agent in Oceanside.

He said foreclosures will probably be most prevalent in areas such as eastern Carlsbad, where new developments such as Bressi Ranch and La Costa Greens attracted buyers with little down payment into higher-risk loans called Alt-A and Option-ARMs. Many of those products carried low fixed payments for three or five years and then adjusted upward.

"That will force a lot of them to default," Kinsey said.

Still, North County's lower-income areas were the most foreclosure-prone last month, according to the ForeclosureRadar report.

Northeast Oceanside and central Escondido led all ZIP codes in most foreclosure notices, each with about 100 last month, or about 5.7 notices per 1,000 homes in each area.

Even though the region's foreclosure problem seems certain to get worse in the near future, the number of finalized foreclosures remained relatively low, with banks seizing 439 homes in North County last month, according to the report.

That is below a peak for this recession of 729 foreclosures set in July 2008.

The 400-some bank seizures last month were kept artificially low because of government programs that force lenders to delay the foreclosure process and give borrowers more time to make up payments, said Ward Hanigan, founder of InnoVest Resource Management, a San Diego investment firm that buys foreclosures.

How many homes end up as bank-repossessed foreclosures may depend on the success of President Barack Obama's $75 billion proposal to lower home payments for struggling borrowers.

Hanigan said the plan will not do much, largely because investors and borrowers who owe more than the value of their homes cannot qualify for any government help.

Also, Hanigan pointed to the adjustments in payments for Option-ARM and Alt-A loans: Many mortgage payments are rising and will continue to do so through 2012, delaying recovery until then.

The number of Option-ARM and Alt-A loans issued at the local level was not readily available.

"We had a huge rainstorm with subprime, and we'll be pounded with these Alt-As and Option-ARMs, and the ground is just saturated," Hanigan said. "We can't absorb it."

Contact staff writer Zach Fox at (760) 740-5412 or zfox@nctimes.com. Read his blog, "On the Realside," at bizblogs.nctimes.com.

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