NORTH COUNTY -- Ouch! Gasoline prices jumped 15 cents in the past week, according to the latest survey for the North County Times by the Utility Consumers' Action Network.

The price of regular unleaded climbed to $2.410 per gallon in the survey of 188 North County stations, said Charles Langley, a consumer advocate at UCAN. On Jan. 3, the price was $2.260 per gallon. The average price was last this high in November, a time when prices were rapidly falling.

The national average price Monday, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, was $2.321.

"This has never happened in January," Langley said. "For the last 10 years, prices have always been stable in January. It is usually a very boring month for fuel-watchers."

Langley said independent gas stations continued to be squeezed by higher prices, while the major gas companies have been selling at lower prices to their own stations.

"Miserable" was Mohsen Arabshahi's one-word description of life as an independent station owner. Arabshahi, who owns two Mohsen Oil stations in Oceanside and one in Chula Vista, said he is charging $2.459 per gallon for gas that cost him $2.449 per gallon.

"I'm losing money at every one of my stations," Arabshahi said. For him, the question is how long he can hold on financially -- and hold on to the loyalty of his customers.

"So many independents become majors because they have no options," Arabshahi said, adding that he is in better shape than most independent stations because he has little debt.

"My customers know that whenever I can, which is most of the time, my price is the best," Arabshahi said. "Please tell them to support us."

The lowest price, a cash rate of $2.249 per gallon, was offered at the 76 station in Escondido at Escondido Boulevard and Mission Avenue.

The next-lowest price, $2.259, was offered by two Costcos, for members only, in Carlsbad at Palomar Airport Road at Interstate 5, and in Poway at 12155 Tech Center Drive.

Independent dealers throughout the West Coast are hit with the same problem, known as a "rack inversion," stated the Oil Price Information Service in a Tuesday article. Independents, who buy excess gas from oil companies at the "rack rate," now must pay more than the branded stations pay. That's the inverse of the normal price structure, which allows independents to undercut the branded stations.

"Buying on an unbranded basis and meeting average street prices yielded a negative margin of more than 12 cents per gallon last week," the OPIS article stated.

Attempts to contact oil companies late Tuesday afternoon for comment were unsuccessful.

Most of the price increase can be explained by recent rises in the price of crude oil, said Michael Noel, an assistant professor of economics at UC San Diego. The behavior of gas prices is a major area of his research.

The price of oil rose to about $70 a barrel in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Noel said, then they dropped back to about $53 a barrel and gas prices followed suit.

"It crept up again until last week we were looking at oil prices in the low $60s," Noel said. "If you take the old rule of thumb that every dollar increase in the cost of oil per barrel equals an extra 2.5 cents for gas, then an increase of $10 a barrel should cause gas prices to rise about 25 cents."

However, Langley said gas prices have increased far too fast to be blamed on the rising cost of oil.

"It takes months for oil to go from the ground to gas at the pump," Langley said.

That's true, Noel said, but due to an economic principle called "opportunity costs," changes in the price of oil translate nearly instantly into corresponding changes in gas prices.

When oil prices are rising, that means gas prices in the future will be higher. That changes the value of gasoline on hand, Noel said, because a dealer could get a higher price simply by holding onto the supply as price increases work through the system.

Selling at the old, lower price means that the dealer would forego the opportunity to make more money later, Noel said. To make it economically sensible to sell immediately, then, prices have to rise immediately.

Contact staff writer Bradley J. Fikes at (760) 739-6641 or bfikes@nctimes.com. To comment, go to www.nctimes.com.

On the Web:

California Energy Commission

(www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/index.html)

Utility Consumers Action Network

(www.ucan.org)

Saturday's gas price story

(www.nctimes.com/articles/2006/01/07/business/news/10_56_061_6_06.txt)