NORTH COUNTY —— Enjoy it while you can, however briefly. The average price of regular unleaded gas in North County took a minuscule dip in this week's North County Times survey of retail gas prices.

From an average of $2.784 per gallon the week before, the North County average eased to $2.7816. On Aug. 30, 2004, the last survey before Labor Day, gas prices averaged $2.102 per gallon.

Calling this a respite may be stretching the meaning of the term. But it may be the best we can get in the near future, observers say. And in the long term, there's no sign the upward pressures on oil and gas prices will abate.

Although prices typically fall after Labor Day, this year they may peak a few days after the holiday, said Charles Langley, a consumer advocate for San Diego's Utility Consumers' Network who conducts the survey for the North County Times.

"We may see $3 a gallon (as the North County average) after Labor Day," Langley said.

In addition to the unplanned outages at the Shell and Tesoro refineries this week, Arco will be temporarily shutting down one of its major refineries to shift to making gasoline formulated for winter months, Langley said.

The Shell and Tesoro refineries will be down for "several more days, at least," said Carol Thorp, a spokeswoman for the Automobile Club of Southern California.

The Tesoro refinery, in Martinez, was put out of commission by a fire. The Shell refinery, also in Martinez, was reportedly shut down by an unidentified equipment malfunction, said Auto Club spokesman Paul Gonzalez. Shell did not return a phone call by press time.

"When combined with concerns about hurricanes affecting Gulf of Mexico oil production, motorists could experience new record-high prices for gasoline as early as next week if supply to our region is reduced," Thorp said.

Oil prices dropped nearly $1.50 Friday, briefly sliding below $66 a barrel, caused by a wave of selling sparked by premature indications that Hurricane Katrina would miss the oil and gas production regions of the Gulf of Mexico as it moved west of Florida.

Katrina strengthened Friday in the Gulf, prompting oil companies to evacuate offshore workers further west. At least one producer shut oil and gas production in the region.

The picture for the fall is one of modest price drops, Langley said. As drivers wind down their summer driving, prices typically decrease. However, Langley said the drop won't be as large as the price hikes since the beginning of this year, when average North County prices dropped below $2 a gallon, after remaining above that level for most of 2004.

In other words, kiss those days of sub-$2-a-gallon gas prices goodbye forever, Langley said.

"If we're paying $2.40 a gallon in January, we can consider ourselves lucky," Langley said. Worse, he said, it's very possible that the price could hit $5 a gallon in the next 12 months.

With gas prices expected to remain high, Langley speculated that drivers may begin to fundamentally change their driving habits, not only cutting back on unnecessary trips, but even changing vehicles. He cited a survey released earlier this week by the Polk Center for Automotive Studies that found 88 percent of respondents in the Western states would consider buying or leasing a hybrid vehicle if gas prices remained at current prices or went higher.

"If that happens, there aren't going to be enough hybrids," Langley said. "Anyone who has a hybrid now can feel pretty smug."

However, Automobile Club spokesman Gonzalez cautioned that there isn't any hard evidence yet that drivers are making those changes, at least permanently.

This spring, drivers cut back on time behind the wheel as gas prices rose, Gonzalez said, apparently indicating that rising prices could change behavior. However, when summer arrived motorists took those vacations and excursions as they usually do this time of year, despite continuing price hikes.

The Associated Press contributed to this story. Contact staff writer Bradley J. Fikes at bfikes@nctimes.com or (760) 739-6641.