San Diego County's unemployment rate rose in July to an estimated 4.8 percent, up from 4.6 percent in June and 4.4 percent a year ago, the California Employment Development Department reported Friday.

California's unemployment rate rose to 5.3 percent in July, from 5.2 percent in June and 4.8 percent a year ago.

Local economists Alan Gin and Kelly Cunningham said that the county's unemployment report was mixed. The increase in unemployment over a year ago was worrisome, they said, but local businesses still added more than 13,000 jobs. That's a big turnaround from last month's report, which said that only 1,600 jobs had been added locally over the last year.

The job growth reversed a trend that would have resulted in job losses, said Cunningham, of the San Diego Institute for Policy Research. A monthly report on leading economic indicators for the county by Gin has consistently predicted a slowing economy, perhaps lapsing into outright recession.

"I was pleasantly surprised," Cunningham said. "Looking at it year-over-year, (job growth) had been getting weaker and weaker until this month."

However, Gin said the rising unemployment indicated that some job losses were not being picked up in the employment numbers. And both said the slowing real estate sector continues to drag down the overall economy.

"We have conflicting signals," Gin said. "The unemployment rate is at a three-year high. We're still not out of the woods yet, as far as the economy's concerned. The unemployment rate will probably top 5 percent before the end of this year."

Gin said there are most likely hidden job losses among self-employed people, who are not represented in any company's payroll.

"You might have had some people working as real estate agents on their own, sole proprietorships, having their own businesses, and may have decided to give it up," Gin said. "Those kinds of things are picked up in the unemployment report but not in the job numbers."

Contact staff writer Bradley J. Fikes at (760) 739-6641 or bfikes@nctimes.com.