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Year-to-year home prices up 5.2 percent

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NORTH COUNTY -- The area's home prices continued to creep upward year-over-year, albeit at a slower pace, with the median North County detached home price at $610,000 -- an increase of 5.2 percent for December 2005 compared with a year ago, according to a report released Thursday.

In December 2005, preliminary figures show that 721 single-family homes sold in North County, compared with 1,047 in December 2004 and 1,182 in December 2003, according to the North County HomeDex report from the North County Association of Realtors.

The report also recorded a drop in the median price from November, when it was $644,899, but Robert Brown, an economist at Cal State San Marcos who compiles the data, cautioned against focusing too heavily on month-to-month changes.

The median is literally the middle point in a series of numbers where there are as many points above as below.

"We saw a sustained increase (in price) through 2005 over the course of the year, but with a tapering off in the last half," he said. "The other thing I think is interesting, especially in the latter half of the year, is that single-family attached homes have remained so strong."

Single-family attached homes -- condos and town houses -- in North County experienced solid appreciation, the Realtors report stated, moving upward 7.8 percent year-over-year.

At a North County median sales price of $415,000 in December 2005, attached prices are affordable to a broader range of buyers, the report states. Still, the Realtors association's HomeDex "affordability index" indicates that just 20 percent of North County households are able to afford even an attached home in the area, assuming they put 20 percent down and pay no more than one-third of household income in mortgage payments. Those figures represent the historically accepted guidelines for approving mortgages.

Because an increasing number of mortgages in the San Diego region fall outside the recommended financial guidelines used for the HomeDex calculation, a larger percentage of home buyers can actually qualify for a home loan.

The affordability index -- representing the number of residents who can afford North County's median-priced single-family home -- is 9 percent, versus 11 percent in December 2004.

The number of days homes stayed on the market before being sold moved upward for both detached and attached homes in North County. Detached homes were on the market a median of 55 days in December, up from 49 days in November. Attached homes saw a slightly higher percentage rise from a median of 49 days in November to 60 days in December.

Brown cautioned against overemphasis on monthly changes that, he said, don't fully reflect factors such as how the market changes during certain parts of the year, such as holidays.

Anecdotal observations from local real estate salespeople support the association report figures, which indicate homes are taking longer to sell.

Steven Campbell, a broker with Prudential California Realty in Rancho Bernardo, said he believes the longer selling time reflects the degree of realism shown by sellers.

"The time when you put one house on the market and the next at $50K more is gone," he said. "Homes where sellers are not being realistic with their asking prices are the ones staying on the market. This seems to be independent of location and condition. Buyers aren't willing to pay a premium."

Campbell also noted that the volume of listings of homes for sale appears to be down, and the monthly data collected by Brown in 2005 supports his observation.

After reviewing monthly 2005 listing numbers for detached homes compared with December 2003 and 2004 numbers provided by the North County Times, Brown concluded that "cyclical volume does appear to be trending downward (for the number of homes sold)."

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http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2005/12/13/business/news/121105203144.txt

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