Job growth has nearly ground to a halt in San Diego County, raising the risk of a recession later this year, two economists who track the local business climate said Friday.

The latest monthly employment report shows that woes in real estate and construction have spilled over into the local economy, said the economists, Kelly Cunningham of the San Diego Institute for Policy Research and Alan Gin of the University of San Diego.

The county's unemployment rose to an estimated 4.6 percent in June, from 4.2 percent in May, the California Employment Development Department reported Friday. The unadjusted rate was also 4.2 percent in June 2006. California's unemployment rate for June was 5.2 percent, the same as in May and up from last June's rate of 4.9 percent.

Unemployment normally rises during summer, as schools go out of session and students look for work, Gin and Cunningham said. But much more worrisome, they said, is that overall job growth has slowed down over the last three years. The number of jobs added for the year June 2006 to June 2007 increased by just 1,600, or 0.1 percent.

"This to me is a pretty bad report," Gin said. "Last year, we added 18,000 jobs. And the year before that, we added 20,000 jobs."

Cunningham said, "That's the worst job growth we've had since '93." That year was when San Diego was just beginning to emerge from recession.

Large losses of jobs in real estate and construction are canceling out job gains, Gin said. Housing sales have plummeted, and sales prices have stopped their double-digit annual growth. Inventory of existing homes has risen, causing home builders to cut back on new-home construction.

Gin, who compiles a monthly index of leading economic indicators, said last month that his numbers indicated a recession was possible. His index has been fallen in 13 of the last 14 months, signaling a steady deterioration in San Diego's economy.

The chance of a recession is "getting higher," Gin said. "I wouldn't say over 50 percent, but it's not infinitesimal.

"The culprit is real estate," Gin said. "You've lost 7,400 jobs year over year in construction. And in the real estate side, you've lost 3,300 jobs there. The rest of the economy is OK fundamentally, but the problem is now this real estate fallout is spreading into other sectors."

Cunningham said that nonresidential real estate construction has also begun to slacken.

"The commercial side of it is starting to see slowing down," Cunningham said. "So both of those things together seem to reflect a slowing economy and perhaps pulling us into recession."

The tourism industry is a bright spot in the report, Cunningham said. Leisure and hospitality jobs rose year over year by 6,500, the largest single sector increase. However, he said, that's not surprising to see tourism doing strongly during summer.

"Usually, summertime's a pretty good time for San Diego, as the visitor industry's doing well," Cunningham said. "Everybody goes on vacation, and they're spending money. Maybe by September, if things haven't picked up, then I'd start getting more alarmed that our economy could really head into recession."

Contact staff writer Bradley J. Fikes at (760) 739-6641 or bfikes@nctimes.com.