NORTH COUNTY -- If county voters refuse to extend a transportation tax this November, they will be even less likely to reconsider the extension in 2006, proponents of the measure said.

"Anything we do from this point on will be less attractive (to voters) and more political," said Poway Mayor Mickey Cafagna, an advocate for the ballot measure.

Opponents of the controversial proposal turn their noses up at the idea that the extension must be passed this November. They contend that if the plan outlined in the ballot measure is right, voters will approve it; rushing to pass a plan that isn't perfect serves no one.

Cafagna and others, however, say they worry that if voters reject the 40-year extension of the tax, called TransNet, opponents will be able to gut what they say is a "balanced plan" and sap support for the measure.

And they worry that if the ballot measure, Proposition A, is branded a loser once, it will stay that way.

"My feeling is, if it doesn't pass this time, it will be harder, not easier, to get it passed the next time. It's damaged goods," said county Supervisor Greg Cox, who was in the minority on the board of supervisors with Supervisor Ron Roberts in supporting the extension.

Reworking the plan to try to get voter approval in 2006 or bring opponents on board would alter what is now a sound approach, Cox said. In the meantime, the region would lose the ability to leverage future TransNet revenues, slowing progress on needed improvements, he added.

Distribution disputed

Critics say there is still time to fix the proposal before the March 31, 2008, expiration of the tax, which both sides agree is critical to the region's transportation system. TransNet has been levied since 1988, and by the time it expires, it will have pumped $3.3 billion into transportation improvements in the county.

Supervisors Bill Horn, Pam Slater-Price and Dianne Jacob, each of whom represents rural and suburban parts of the county, say too much TransNet money is earmarked for public transportation. They want 50 percent of the expected $14 billion in revenues to go to freeways. If passed, the extension's revenues would be split roughly into third among freeways, local roads and public transportation.

The county supervisors who have been outspoken in their opposition to the measure will have more bargaining power if the measure fails Nov. 2, Cafagna said.

"We will have empowered them greatly by it not passing and they'll take credit for that. They're going to want something … Whatever we put in one pile we take from another," he said.

Supervisor Horn knows which pile he would like to see get larger -- the one for freeways. He has said repeatedly that the plan gives too much to mass transit. He and Supervisors Jacob and Slater-Price have all said they would like 50 percent of the revenues to go to freeways.

If it fails

If the tax fails, the association needs to go back to the drawing board, Horn said.

"I think they have to be very honest and forget the focus groups and feel-good investments," he said. What the county needs to figure out is how to build another major north-south route.

"What's got to be addressed is the problem, and the problem is traffic" Horn said. "You've got to change the formula. Your approach has to be fixing the problem."

Horn compared the proposition to school bonds that take years to pass. Ultimately, the right plan will be crafted and voters will embrace it, he said.

What is brought back to the table, if the measure fails, will probably depend on how close to the two-thirds approval the measure gets, said Garry Bonelli, a spokesman for the planning agency. "Just say we get 66 percent," he said. "That's an overwhelming mandate." And just 2/3 of a percent shy of what is needed to get the measure passed.

On the other hand, if few voters want the extension, changes could be in store, Bonelli said.

Complicating matters is that the tax needs such an overwhelming majority to pass. Supporters say this year's presidential election will provide the high turnout needed to get that 66 2/3 percent. By the time the 2008 presidential election rolls around, the tax will have expired and voters won't want to pass what will then be a new tax, they say.

A backup plan

While the region wouldn't be in dire straits, it would face some tough decisions, said Cafagna, who is also the chairman of the San Diego Association of Governments, the region's transportation planning agency.

"We have a $42 billion transportation plan -- this is only $14 billion of it," Cafagna said referring to the association's Mobility 2030 plan, a long-term plan for the region's transportation needs. "It's not like we will be out of business."

But if TransNet fails this November and again in 2006, that would still leave a major shortfall to fill, sending regional planners scrambling to find state or federal money to pay for projects that rely on the tax. The widening of 10 miles of Highway 76 to Interstate 15 is one long-awaited effort that hinges on TransNet. The Mobility 2030 plan includes three scenarios. The worst-case one assumes TransNet won't pass and that there won't be money to widen Highway 76.

Cafagna doesn't want to see that scenario. If TransNet fails in November, the board will need to find out why, using exit polls and voter surveys, he said. The danger to making large changes for the 2006 ballot, especially if the vote is close this November, is that support for the measure could further erode, Cafagna said.

"It's going to be a lot harder in 2006," Cafagna said. "In 2008, we're out of money." If the measure goes before voters that year, it could be doomed because voters will no longer be paying TransNet.

Supervisor Jacob said one solution the association might want to consider is putting two propositions before voters in 2006, one to address roads and one to address public transportation.

Whatever road policy that voters see should guarantee projects will be built, said Jacob, who opposes a provision in the November measure that would allow most projects to be changed or deleted with a two-thirds vote of the association board.

"We have time to rethink and in that process, I think that the first priority should be to address congestion," Jacob said.

Contact staff writer Katherine Marks at (760) 740-3529 or kmarks@nctimes.com.