Depending on whom you ask, the four gambling deals up for a vote in the Feb. 5 election will generate more than $400 million a year or create a net loss of $60 million for the state.

Supporters of the gambling agreements struck by four Southern California tribes, including the Pechanga band near Temecula, have aired TV commercials saying their deals would generate more than $9 billion for the state.

The tribes hoping to expand their casinos say that money could help the state close the multibillion-dollar budget gap.

One of their TV ads features Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger saying the agreements would mean "billions and billions of dollars over the next two decades."

In a study released Monday, the tribes increased their estimate to $16 billion over the 22-year life span of the agreements by adding a few extras, such as additional tax revenues and revenue-sharing payments for poor tribes with no casinos.

"We've been trying to be very conservative with our numbers," said Roger Salazar, a spokesman for a coalition of tribes supporting the agreements. "This is even better for the state."

The three other tribes that signed the agreements are the Sycuan band in East County, the Agua Caliente band in Palm Springs and the Morongo band near Banning.

Opponents of the agreements - including the Pala band in North County, a horse racetrack owner and a labor union - released their own study on Monday, estimating much lower revenues for the state and possibly even a loss of revenue.

The opponents are backing the "no" on Propositions 94, 95, 96, 97 campaign, which would undo the agreements negotiated by Schwarzenegger and approved by the Legislature last year.

Under the new deals, the state would allow the four tribes to operate up to 7,000 slot machines in their casinos in exchange for a larger share of the profits. Most gambling tribes in California are limited to 2,000 slot machines.

Those who oppose the new arrangements say local businesses, such as restaurants, could lose patrons to the larger casinos.

What's more, opponents say, the language in the agreement, also known as a compact, is vague and could allow tribes to reduce their payments.

Matt Newman, a consultant who co-authored a study for the coalition opposing the agreements, said tribes could try to reduce the number of slot machines at play during off-peak hours.

Counting the machines "in operation" rather than those "on the casino floor" would allow tribes to "dramatically reduce the amount of revenue paid to the state," according to Newman's study.

"We don't know how the tribes will take advantage of this ambiguity in the language," Newman said.

The net annual effect of the agreements on state and local governments could range from a gain of $165 million to a loss of approximately $60 million depending on the amount of time that the machines are treated as in operation to calculate the revenue to the state, according to the opponents' report.

Salazar said the idea that tribes would rope off machines when there are fewer customers around was "nonsense."

Alan Meister, an economist commissioned by the tribes to produce a study on the benefits of the agreements, said the state would receive $10.2 billion in revenue for the state's general fund during the 22-year life of the compact.

During the next two decades, the agreements would also generate $5.4 billion in state and local taxes and $275 million in revenue-sharing payments for local governments and $128 million for nongambling tribes, according to Meister's analysis.

Meister estimated that the agreements would generate $445 million to the state each year.

The state's independent Legislative Analyst Office calculated a lower annual payment in a fiscal outlook report released in November. It said the state could receive about $120 million in fiscal year 2007-08 and $208 million in 2008-09.

The state would eventually receive about $400 million in 2012-13, according to the analyst.

H.D. Palmer, spokesman for Schwarzenegger's Department of Finance, said the state would be able to collect about $430 million next year. He said due to the challenges against the compacts, the state expects to collect $154 million this year.

"Based upon the numbers, we're confident that they (the agreements) will generate the revenue that we projected," Palmer said.

- Contact staff writer Edward Sifuentes at (760) 740-3511 or esifuentes@nctimes.com.