MENIFEE - Voters in the Menifee-Sun City area will be asked Feb. 5 to vote on a $31.46 million school bond measure that would help pay for three new schools. Although there is no organized opposition to the measure, proponents say that doesn't necessarily assure success.

Measure B would raise half the money needed to build a middle school and two elementary schools in the Menifee Union School District; the other half is expected to come from the state.

For the bond to pass, 55 percent of voters in the district would have to approve it.

District officials estimate the measure would cost property owners $17.90 per $100,000 of assessed value, for a term of 25 years. That estimate is based on a projection that the assessed values of properties in the district will grow by 4 percent each year, organizers say.

The district, which serves more than 8,800 students in kindergarten through eighth grade, currently has two middle schools and seven elementary schools. Two more elementary schools are being built and are scheduled to open this summer. The capacity for those 11 schools is about 9,600 under a single-track, traditional schedule, and about 12,000 under the district's current year-round schedule.

A hard sell?

Backers have been promoting the school bond measure since August, but some issues have arisen that might make the measure a "harder sell," a key organizer said.

Those include a sagging economy and proposed changes to attendance boundaries in anticipation of the two elementary schools that are set to open when the new school year starts. The new boundaries are unpopular with some parents, and district officials have said they are necessary in part for the district to move to a more traditional schedule. But district officials say that move is not possible without Measure B.

District schools are now open year-round, which accommodates more students.

Bond organizers say the new schools are needed, regardless of how they affect the school calendar or how fast the real estate market might rebound.

"This measure will allow us to finally catch up with growth," said Keith Velotta, who is chairman of the campaign committee. "We can be proactive and plan. It will make everything a whole lot easier. Right now, we are just cramming in the most kids we can.

"This will affect every school in the district. Full is full."

The district still has several teachers who don't have their own classrooms, but rove to different classrooms each month, Velotta said.

In recent years, the district has seen enrollment jump by as much as 14 percent. This year, with home construction grinding to a near halt, there has been virtually no increase in students. But district officials don't expect that to be the norm.

The projections they are working with estimate that enrollment will grow by 2 percent next year and 3 percent the following year, said Dan Wood, the district's assistant superintendent of business services.

"We have some significant development projects in the works," Wood said. "Some are moving forward and a number of others have stalled, but I would hope it picks back up in the near future," Wood said.

Sizeable developments planned in the district include Cottonwood Canyon in Lake Elsinore, Audie Murphy Ranch west of Murrieta Road between Menifee and Canyon Lake, The Lakes project by Centex off Newport Road east of Interstate 215 and a large shopping center on Newport Road at I-215.

Velotta, a parent of two who works as a fire captain, said that while he hopes the bond will pass and he firmly believes it is needed, his experience as head of the PTA at Callie Kirkpatrick Elementary School has taught him that it won't be a slam dunk. He said that if all parents had the time or inclination to learn about the measure, it would probably pass.

Velotta added, however, that the number of parents in the district who are registered to vote is "very low," accounting for only 14 percent of the voters, according to a report prepared by consultant George K. Burns & Co.

Misconceptions

There are some common misconceptions about the measure, Velotta says, but once those are explained, people seem supportive.

"If you really look into it, it's a no-brainer, especially if you have kids," he said. "We need to provide kids with a healthy, happy environment and not stack them like cord wood."

Velotta said some parents complain that the district needs a high school more than it does a middle school or more elementary schools. But Velotta notes that is a separate issue.

The Menifee district has begun a four- to six-year process of taking over operation of Paloma Valley High School from Perris Union High School District, and Velotta said both districts agree a new high school will be built in Menifee east of I-215.

Others seem to believe school boundaries should mimic the community's boundaries, and seem reluctant to vote for schools that are in other cities, even though those campuses would be within the Menifee school district, he said. The two proposed elementary schools the bond measure would fund are in the cities of Murrieta and Lake Elsinore. The middle school is north of McCall Boulevard near Sherman Road.

But, Velotta said, it is common for school district boundaries to extend into other cities. He added that it's important to remember that the residents living in those other cities who are sending their children to schools in the Menifee district pay taxes that benefit all of the district's schools.

Then there are those who see "bonds" and "tax" in the same sentence and shudder.

Robert Purcell, 65, of Menifee, probably falls into that category. Purcell said he is not eager to see a 12th debt service on his property tax bill. It already includes a $16 school debt service, a $61 high school debt service, and nine more for water, street lights, street sweeping and recreation services.

"I don't even understand what some of these are," he said.

He and his wife don't have children, he said, yet he noted that all his life he's been paying school taxes as well as special bond issues.

"We're struggling just to get along and to pay the taxes we have facing us already."

What if?

If that is the prevailing sentiment and the bond doesn't pass, construction on the two elementary schools would be put off indefinitely, as would the idea of the district moving to a traditional school year, Wood said.

Grading has already begun for the new middle school, and that $35 million campus would move forward as planned, he said. The district has just enough money to complete that project, with help from the state, Wood added. However, that might necessitate the elimination of planned projects such as a gym at Menifee Valley Middle School, a transportation facility and purchase of land for future schools.

Angelica Silerio, who has two children who attend Oak Meadows Elementary School, said she plans to vote for Measure B. Oak Meadows is crowded, she said.

"If it benefits the kids, I'll vote for it," she said. "Small children shouldn't be bused far from their homes. They need to be able to go to school close to where they live."

At this point, the bond's chance at success is unclear, but proponents are cautiously optimistic.

A June telephone survey of 400 residents and likely voters, conducted by consultants, found that about 60 percent to 63 percent of those questioned would support a bond if the increase in their property tax bills was within reason. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percent.

The school district previously proposed two other bond measures in the last 16 years, with mixed results.

In 1991, a measure failed to gain enough voter support. In 2002, the district passed a $14 million bond measure, which paid for part of a sixth elementary school, plus 13 new classrooms, a library and other facilities at existing schools.

Contact staff writer Cathy Redfern at (951) 676-4315, Ext. 2621, or credfern@californian.com.