ESCONDIDO - The final enrollment numbers for next school year many not be in until students arrive on campus in the fall. But whatever the tally is, Escondido elementary district officials said last week that they know there will be fewer students than today.

And that can mean as much as a $1 million less in state funding for the 23 schools in the district.

"It really just depends on who walks through the door," Superintendent Jennifer Walters said, adding that the unpredictability of the situation makes it that much more of a concern as officials are forced to look at ways to trim an already tight budget.

"We can't just assume that every second-grader in the district will be a third-grader," Walters said.

Since the 2003-04 school year, the district has borne a loss of more than 1,134 students. The K-8 district, which once served 19,344 students in the 2003-04 school year, is now projecting to have about 18,210 students next fall.

That equates to more than a $9.1 million in cumulative revenue lost in average daily attendance dollars over the five school years, and dozens of cuts in staffing, classroom materials and extra programming, said Carol Rouse, director of fiscal services. The state gives school districts money based on the number of students who show up to school on a day-to-day basis.

Trimming the bone

Not all of the schools are showing a drop in enrollment and those that are, are not showing the same decreases in enrollment.

Of the district's 23 campuses, at least six of the elementary and middle schools are growing or at their maximum capacity for students. Enrollment at the remaining schools is declining, but the extent of their losses varies from a couple students to nearly 90.

The overall class sizes, staffing and material needs for students may not change all that much, Rouse said.

The district, however, is analyzing it priorities to determine where reductions are possible. In many instances, that's meant cuts to district staff, music and fine-arts programs, reading teachers and instructional assistants, Walters said.

In the latest round of budget trimmings, which the school board will discuss at Thursday's meeting as they look to slice about $1 million from next year's expenditures, trustees are considering many reductions, including the school's discretionary budgets, leaving vacant nursing positions open, and shifting after-school programming to youth activities providers. They are also looking to redistribute some state funding.

"So far, we have protected the classrooms and the programs, but it's being more difficult," said Gina Manusov, assistant superintendent of business services, adding that what the district has left to cut is basically "the bone."

Similar stories can be heard on campuses that are bearing the brunt of student decline.

At Central Elementary School, for instance, Principal Marta Baker said that their loss of about 40 students this coming year is going to cost the campus around $80,000 - a significant dip in funding for the second year in a row.

"I'm trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip," Baker said, explaining that she plans to concentrate on keeping qualified teachers and staff. She said she hopes that the instructional materials and technology bought in previous years will be enough.

Baker also said that she will not fill two teaching positions that will be vacant, after veteran third- and second-grade teachers retire at the end of this year.

"I know that this is a phenomenon … but another year of this will be very tough," she said.

The 'train' is coming

In contrast with the enrollment woes of the elementary school district, however, is the Escondido Union High School District, where modest enrollment increases in each of the district's three comprehensive campuses has pushed the school board to look for space elsewhere.

The board recently passed a long-term facilities plan that would call for the building of a $37.3 million small, magnet school in the western part of the city, as well as a $48.9 million relocatable classroom replacement and expansion project at the Orange Glen, San Pasqual and Escondido high schools.

Barry Dragon, assistant superintendent of business services, said that the district is growing - if only for the next couple years - and that the overcrowded and strapped school facilities need some reprieve.

Originally built for about 1,500 students, the three schools currently house anywhere from 1,300 to 800 extra students.

The district is tight on space, Dragon said, and according to his enrollment predictions - based on housing developments in the city, the elementary school's numbers and other local and political factors - the 8,200 student district could grow by another 300 students by the 2010-11 school year.

"We will see some modest growth," he said.

After that, however, Dragon said, the district could see the same dip in student enrollment that the elementary district is currently riding.

"That train is coming," he said. "I see a decline out there and that's despite the (housing projects) out there. They can't counteract 500 or 600 elementary school students leaving the previous year."

Attendance push

In the meantime, as one district awaits an upswing in enrollment and the other looks for space to handle their current population, both said that they are focusing their attention on what they can directly influence: Boosting students' average daily attendance.

A few less sick days and more bodies in classroom chairs can mean significant funding for each district. Both the elementary and high school districts have made a goal of improving upon their average daily attendance rates, which hover around 95 percent.

"Even a 1 percent improvement is considerable," Rouse said. "That's about $700,000."

- Contact staff writer Shayna Chabner at (760) 740-5416 or schabner@nctimes.com.