NORTH COUNTY - To death and taxes, the elected leaders of three high-performing North County school districts add this guarantee:

"Within two to three years, our school district will be in the headlines for failing," said Kelli Moors, president of the board of Carlsbad Unified School District - that, with San Dieguito Union High School District and Poway Unified School District, are among the highest performing in the county.

All three say that they have so far met the requirements of federal No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, but won't for long.

Under the law, every student in every classroom in every state must read and do math at grade level by 2014 as measured by a battery of state tests given each spring to students in grades two through 11.

As Congress considers reauthorizing the landmark legislation, designed to improve teaching and learning across the nation, educators and policymakers across the state say the law should stay - but it must be revised to make it work.

"There's not a school in our district that will meet that test - not a school in the nation," said Don Phillips, superintendent of Poway Unified School District.

To reach that 100 percent target in California, state lawmakers set annual goals for improvement. In 2006-07, one in four students was required to earn a "proficient" score, which means that a student has learned the facts and skills that state officials have set for that grade and age.

But starting in 2008, the annual requirement for improvement will rise 11 percent per year.

"We're hopeful that we'll get over that bar next year, but the year after, I suspect we'll have some schools falling behind." Phillips said. "To have that kind of change in that short of a window is not realistic."

The president of the Poway district board, Jeff Mangum, who described himself as a "fairly conservative Republican," took President Bush and his own party to task for creating a "devilishly complicated piece of legislation."

"The problem with the 11 percent annual bumps is that they are completely arbitrary," he said. "Congress did not have any kind of research, any base in reason for setting them. They did it without any consideration for how you get there."

Barbara Groth, president of the San Diego County School Boards Association, brought the problem down to the classroom.

"By 2014, every student must be perfect," said Groth, also a trustee with San Dieguito Union High School District.

Moors, Groth and Mangum all said the annual goals are unattainable even for the best schools, let alone schools struggling with large populations of special education students, with non-English speaking students and with students from poor families.

"We're doomed to fail," Moors said. "It is statistically impossible for everybody to be at 100 percent."

The 100 percent target makes a good sound bite, but sets schools up for failure, education advocates agree.

"It's a nice goal, but the reality is you can't get there," said Erika Hoffman, a legislative lobbyist with the California School Boards Association. "By 2014, basically every school in the state will be in program improvement."

As a result, standout schools such as Carlsbad High and Torrey Pines could find themselves in the curious position of being labeled "National Distinguished Schools" and "low performing" at the same time, Moors said.

"How schizophrenic is that?" Moors asked.

Problem areas

As officials struggle with the law's 100 percent goal, they say they must contend with a variety of challenges.

For example, new students arrive every year from other countries speaking little or no English, Groth said. They must, nonetheless, take the tests - written in English and administered with directions written and spoken in English. Only students in the country for less than 12 months are exempt.

No Child Left Behind measures improvement in more than 20 demographic subgroups based on ethnic background and income level, including special education and English learner. If any subgroup fails, the entire school fails.

Schools that take federal money to help low-income students and don't make the grade for two years in a row get placed in "program improvement," a six-year series of increasing penalties for schools that don't make the grade.

Federally mandated sanctions range from the parental right to move children to a better school in the first year to firing educators and converting the school to a charter school in the sixth and final year of program improvement.

Changes being sought

With federal reauthorization of the regulations expected next spring, education officials across the country are lobbying local, state and federal policymakers for changes to make the law's goal of improving teaching and learning more achievable.

The California School Boards Association and the Association of California School Superintendents are among the organizations that have asked their members to spread the word about the need for reform.

As members of the school boards association, Groth and Moors said they've met with congressional lawmakers including Reps. Susan Davis, D-San Diego, and Brian Bilbray, R-Solana Beach, to stump for revisions.

As a result, Bilbray has authored legislation to remove conflicts between federal special education laws and No Child Left Behind, said Bilbray spokesman Kurt Bardella.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell said the underlying goals of the federal law are good, but that the federal requirements for achieving those goals need work.

O'Connell advocates measuring students and schools by setting statewide goals for growth, which California now does. The California "growth model" is akin to giving students a grade between A and F. "Proficient" would be a B. The federal model is more a pass-fail system. Either the student is proficient or not.

"The federal system's status model - a single bar for measuring student achievement - does not recognize even significant gains or drops in achievement by students and schools that are under the arbitrary bar of proficiency," O'Connell said in June.

"California's Academic Performance Index - a model based on achievement growth from year to year - offers the public a more credible, accurate and more comprehensive picture of school performance."

The growth-model idea is gaining traction, said Hoffman. As of July, the federal Department of Education had approved growth models in eight states.

Political motives?

Why, Moors and Groth wondered, would federal legislators create a system that dooms schools to fail?

"I think when I'm feeling paranoid, it looks like a way to show the public that we are failing kids," Groth said. "By 2013, the federal government can say every school is failing and here's the solution: vouchers. Why else would you come up with this?"

Political discussions of vouchers - a proposal by conservative lawmakers to give parents cash to enroll their children in private schools -- and charter schools have been rising and falling for years.

Proponents say that vouchers give parents real choice in schools.

Opponents say vouchers will siphon money from public education.

Mangum disagreed. The legislation is not a backdoor conspiracy to prove that public education has failed, he said, but President Bush and his party are just plain wrong on this issue.

"It's easier to throw slogans at a problem than to roll up your sleeves and do what really needs to get done," he said. "It's easier to set arbitrary goals than it is to write check."

Regardless of their issues with the No Child Left Behind, local school officials and state policymakers alike say it has brought much needed focus and accountability to public education.

"I haven't talked to any board member who wants it thrown out," said Groth. "We've worked too hard to throw it all away. Accountability is a good thing. Standardization across states is a good thing. Penalizing a school or child because they haven't made improvements you think they should make is not."

Contact Philip K. Ireland at (760) 901-4043 or online at pireland@nctimes.com.